Precious metals: under the resonance of inflation, geopolitical conflict and US dollar credit crisis, the long-term allocation value of precious metals is highlighted. ① Nominal interest rate: during the week, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25bp as scheduled, and the dot matrix expects to raise interest rates seven times in 2022. At the same time, Federal Reserve officials lowered GDP growth expectations and significantly raised PCE inflation expectations, causing market stagflation concerns. After the interest rate meeting, gold prices stopped falling and rebounded, and 10YR US bonds exceeded 2%. At present, the US bond interest rate has fully priced the short-term interest rate increase, and the momentum of continued rapid recovery after breaking through 2% is weakened. The deduction of market risk aversion and the expected change of subsequent interest rate increase will dominate the trend of interest rate; ② Inflation expectation: the Russian Ukrainian negotiations have not made substantial progress in the short term. The Pentagon warned that Putin may issue a nuclear threat, and the sanctions against Russia are expected to continue in the future. The impact of the Russian Ukrainian incident is gradually weakened and long-term, and the oil price returns to more than $100 / barrel. At present, high inflation has become a common problem of global economies. The upside down of the short-term interest rate curve reflects concerns about the future economic situation and the credit rupture of the US dollar. Under the resonance of inflation, geographical conflict and the US dollar credit crisis, precious metals have long-term allocation value.
Base metals: the epidemic blockade accelerates China’s destocking, and the peak season is coming to improve the prosperity of the processing industry. (1) Copper: ① macroscopically, the Fed raised interest rates by 25bp in March, which was in line with market expectations. The response of major dollar priced assets was flat. After the interest rate increase was implemented, it was good for the recovery of market risk appetite; From January to February, China’s main economic data performed better than expected. Liu he presided over the meeting of the financial committee of the State Council to further enhance market confidence; ② On the supply side, the epidemic blockade and high-speed export affected the delivery of Chinese smelters and warehouse transportation. The supply in the spot market was in short supply, and the spot price rose sharply, accelerating the de inventory of China after the festival. At the copper mine end, the Escondida copper mine in Chile under BHP this week threatened to strike because the No. 1 trade union believed that the company violated the collective contract; The conflict at lasbambas copper mine continues and escalates, and another transportation road is blocked. Under high copper price, the interference rate at the mine end increases, adding uncertainty to the output of copper mine; ③ In terms of demand & inventory, this week’s global copper inventory decreased by 26100 tons to 613100 tons month on month. LME inventory increased by 5300 tons, and the inventory in the previous period decreased by 32200 tons. The epidemic affected cross city transportation and staff arrival, and the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises fell slightly this week. Due to the long transportation radius at the smelting supply end and greater impact, this week, China’s copper stock society accelerated the depolarization, and the supply in the spot market became more tight. SHFE’s contract in recent months maintained a strong back structure and increased the market bullish sentiment. In the future, the US interest rate hike landed, the market risk appetite picked up, Premier Liu he held a working meeting to release a strong signal of steady growth, and the market confidence returned. With the advent of the peak season, the accelerated decommissioning of copper inventory drives the continuous improvement of market sentiment, and the price is expected to remain high. (2) Aluminum: ① inventory: on Wednesday, 561001071500 tons of LME Inventory were removed from the stock exchange, including 40700 tons of LME inventory. From 47000 tons to 1156800 tons, China’s social Treasury began to show seasonal destocking; ② In terms of supply: the resumption of electrolytic aluminum production this week is about 390000 tons to 39.11 million tons. Since March, the resumption of electrolytic aluminum production + production in China has been implemented successively. It is expected that the production reduction and production to be put into operation will be basically restored by the end of the month, and the corresponding operating capacity will gradually rise to the level of 39.5 million tons. In March, according to the current pace of resumption of work in China, the output of electrolytic aluminum in March is expected to approach 3.1 million tons, a slight increase year-on-year; ③ Demand: this week, with the weakening impact of overseas risk events, the price trend of electrolytic aluminum tends to be fundamental. With the advent of the peak season, the inventory of aluminum rods, aluminum alloy ingots and electrolytic aluminum shows a trend of destocking. Even if the effective capacity of electrolytic aluminum is gradually repaired, under the impact of the peak season and the demand for aluminum price stabilization and replenishment, the inventory of the industrial chain has decreased significantly, basically clearing the concerns of the early market about the downstream consumption of aluminum. In addition, according to the survey and statistics of Mysteel, affected by the epidemic, logistics and downstream procurement in some parts of Guangdong have declined slightly, but the order scheduling period of large aluminum sector, strip and foil manufacturers remains at the level of 60-75 days, and the demand boom has not been significantly dragged down. With the approach of late March, under the condition of slight cooling of aluminum price, the willingness to start construction in the downstream will gradually appear, and the replenishment of storage in the midstream is expected to be fulfilled. Under the environment of superimposing overseas aluminum premium, China’s aluminum demand is expected to show an effective recovery scenario. Suggestions and concerns include the following: the ‘ China Molybdenum Co.Ltd(603993) , Tianshan Aluminum Group Co.Ltd(002532) .
Energy metals: the price rise of cobalt and lithium is slowing down, and the downstream auto enterprises are now concentrating on the price rise. (1) Lithium: during the week, the price of battery grade lithium carbonate was the same as last week, at 517500 yuan / ton, and the price stagnated for the first time after the festival. Since March, downstream auto enterprises have concentrated on the price rise tide, which will effectively absorb the impact of sectorau material prices and benefit the long-term benign development of the industry; (2) Nickel: nickel sulfate rose 3.33% to 50800 yuan / ton this week, and the price difference between nickel sulfate and ferronickel rose 8800 yuan / ton to 69600 yuan / ton this week. LME reopened trading on the evening of the 16th, with a total decline of 23.15% to 36900 US dollars / ton in the week. At present, there is still a price difference of 5 Shenzhen Zhongjin Lingnan Nonfemet Co.Ltd(000060) 000 yuan / ton in the internal and external nickel market. Under the limit of 15% rise and fall, it is expected to resume normal trading next Tuesday. At present, the import of raw materials in the spot market is blocked and the market liquidity is poor. (3) Cobalt: during the week, cobalt sulfate rose 0.82% to 123000 yuan / ton, and the price of MB cobalt rose 1.77% to 38.88 US dollars / pound. The cobalt price is high, the enthusiasm of downstream procurement is weak, and the rise of cobalt price slowed down this week. Affected by the epidemic, the production lines of cobalt smelting and recycling of Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) subsidiary temporarily reduced production. \ 35.
Risk tips: the global economic recovery is less than expected, the global epidemic development is more than expected, political risks, etc.
