Key investment points:
Current key recommendations: (1) cement sector: the policy force is appropriate and the effect is obvious. On March 15, the National Bureau of statistics released the operation of major economic indicators from January to February. According to the published data, industrial production, investment in fixed assets, investment in real estate development and total retail sales of social consumer goods were better than market expectations. (2) Glass fiber sector: Recently, major glass fiber enterprises successively released annual reports for 2021. The industry maintained a high boom throughout the year, and the average volume and price of glass fiber products rose simultaneously. In the long run, the downstream demand of glass fiber, especially the demand for wind power, will maintain a stable growth trend, and the price of coarse sand is expected to remain stable at a high level. (3) Glass sector: under the background of double carbon policy, photovoltaic glass ushers in demand support. At the same time, the continuous improvement of double glass penetration also brings new growth rate to photovoltaic glass. However, affordable Internet access promotes industrial cost reduction and efficiency increase, puts forward higher requirements for enterprise technology and cost control, and benefits industry leaders with technology and cost advantages. At present, the valuation of the building materials industry is relatively low and the safety margin is high, so it is rated as “recommended”.
Recommended cement sector: (1) macro aspect: on March 15, the National Bureau of statistics released the operation of main economic indicators from January to February, and the main production demand indicators rebounded. Among them, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 7.5% year-on-year, which was faster than the average growth rate in December 2021 and 2021. The national fixed asset investment increased by 12.2% year-on-year, 7.3 percentage points faster than that in 2021 and 8.3 percentage points faster than the average growth rate in 2021. Also accelerating the recovery are the total retail sales of social consumer goods and the national service industry production index. (2) Fundamentals: this week, the price of the national cement market fell by 0.2% month on month. In mid March, the demand of China’s cement market was affected by the multi-point spread of the epidemic, the construction progress of the project was limited, and the improvement of cement shipments this week was limited. In terms of price, due to the obvious increase in the cost side, the cement price in some southern regions has maintained an upward trend; As the demand in Northeast China has just started, the quotation has returned to a reasonable level from a high level. In the short term, due to the outbreak of the epidemic in many parts of the country, the government control is relatively strict, and the recovery of downstream demand is affected. After the epidemic is controlled, it is expected that the market demand will be released intensively and the price will continue to rise. At present, it is recommended to take the lead in the cement area Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) , focusing on Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co.Ltd(000877) .
Recommended glass fiber industry: the demand of China’s roving market has started fairly recently, and the shipment of each factory is relatively stable. The short-term supply side has little change, and the demand support is good. The price of electronic yarn market is still low in the near future. After the ignition production line is put into operation in the early stage, the supply has increased slightly, but the downstream cost pressure is large, which still conflicts with the high price supply. In the medium and long term, it is necessary to follow up the changes of production and sales and demand to adjust the price. At the same time, at the macro level, we will continue to promote the large-scale and high-quality development of wind power and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) power generation, improve the future demand of wind power, and further increase the demand space of glass fiber industry. In terms of individual stocks, recommend industry leaders China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) , and pay attention to Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co.Ltd(300196) , Shandong Fiberglass Group Co.Ltd(605006) .
Glass industry: this week, China’s float glass market is weak and downward, the transaction is general, and there are regional differences. Downstream demand starts slowly, most of them have not recovered to full load, the problem of lack of orders still exists, and the inventory in the middle and downstream still needs time to digest. Supply: there are 304 float glass production lines in China, 261 in production, the same as last week, and there is no ignition line. Demand: orders from downstream processing plants in the southern region gradually recovered during the week, but the lack of orders is still prominent. The operating rate of most processing plants in South China is 60% – 90%. In terms of cost: the recent rise in the prices of fuel products coal and petroleum coke has led to higher costs in the main production areas and narrowed industrial profits. Focus on industry leaders Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , Luoyang Glass Company Limited(600876) , Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) , Xinyi Glass, Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) , Shandong Jinjing Science And Technology Stock Co.Ltd(600586) .
Other consumer building materials: the waterproof industry has broad development prospects and the market stock is increasing. After the introduction of new industry standards, the market is expected to be structurally adjusted and the concentration is further improved. Under the background of carbon neutralization, photovoltaic roofs are gradually rising, and the service life requirements of photovoltaic houses facing the waterproof layer have become a new growth point of the waterproof industry. In addition, the recovery expectation of infrastructure and real estate end storage is optimistic about the improvement of the demand of the waterproof industry. Focus on Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , Jiangsu Canlon Building Materials Co.Ltd(300715) . Recommend the gypsum board leader Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) , the company’s “one body and two wings” layout is accelerated, and the waterproof and coating sectors are developing rapidly. We are optimistic about the future performance growth. The pipe sector focuses on the leader Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , Hong Kong stock and China Liansu. The coating sector pays attention to Skshu Paint Co.Ltd(603737) , Asia Cuanon Technology (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(603378) .
Risk warning: the construction progress of infrastructure projects is less than expected; The market demand is less than expected; Focus on the company’s performance not meeting expectations; The epidemic has repeatedly affected the economy; Adverse changes have taken place in the macro environment.
