Pig breeding: continuous collection and storage is difficult to stop the downward trend of pig price. As of Friday, the average price of pigs was 11.64 yuan / kg, down 0.37 yuan / kg month on month. Recently, the supply of pigs in the market has continued to increase, and there is no significant growth on the consumer side, which is in a phased oversupply situation. According to the monitoring of the Ministry of agriculture and rural areas, the number of pigs in January 2022 increased by 23.6% year-on-year, and the number of pigs in February increased by 8.2% year-on-year. The pig price is always determined by the relationship between supply and demand. Under the background of the substantial growth of marketing volume, even the frequent industrial macro-control policies have failed to resist the downward trend of pig price. Since 2022, feed prices have been rising, resulting in further increase in breeding costs and farmers falling into double-sided squeeze. In the short term, pig prices continue to fluctuate weakly, but the central government is about to start the third round of frozen pork collection and storage this year, and the downward space of pig prices is expected to be limited. The cold winter of the industry is conducive to accelerating the de industrialization of pig production capacity, and a new cycle is expected to come faster. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the degree of de industrialization of industry production capacity before the inflection point of the cycle. Relevant listed companies include Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) ( Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) ) and Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) ( Guangdong Haid Group Co.Limited(002311) ).
White feather chicken: Farmers’ willingness to make up the fence is low, and the price of chicken seedlings has fallen. As of Friday, the average price of white feather meat wool chicken was about 3.92 yuan / kg, which was basically the same as that of last week; The price of white feather broiler seedlings generally fell this week. The lowest price in some parts of China fell to 0.35 yuan / feather, down more than 0.50 yuan / feather from last week. Since the Spring Festival in 2022, pig prices have continued to decline, which is bad for the meat and poultry market. The superposition of epidemic situations has repeatedly led to the reduction of centralized procurement in schools, the price of white feather broiler is weak and volatile, and there is great upward pressure. The downturn on the consumer side and the increase in costs have led to a sharp decline in breeding profits, weak willingness of farmers to make up the hurdles, and the price of white feather broiler seedlings fell sharply this week. In the short term, the negative factors in the meat and poultry market are difficult to eliminate for the time being. It is expected that the price of white feather meat and wool chicken will continue to fluctuate weakly.
Seed industry: Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices are rising, and the prosperity of the industry is improving. Under the catalysis of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices rose in an all-round way, and the Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) prices of soybean meal and wheat reached a 14 year high. The problem of food security became more and more prominent, which further stimulated the improvement of the planting industry chain. The “new seed law” passed by China will be implemented from March 1, 2022, which is conducive to strengthening the protection of intellectual property rights in the seed industry and encouraging the innovation and breakthrough of breeding technology in the industry. Gansu Provincial Department of agriculture and rural areas issued a notice on the work plan for the supervision of agricultural genetically modified organisms in Gansu Province in 2022 this week, which emphasizes preventing the proliferation of illegal genetically modified crops and promoting the healthy development of agricultural genetically modified research and application. With the continuous improvement of industrial policies and the strict supervision of local governments, the application of biological breeding technology will be closer and closer. If the relevant systems of “Document No. 1” are issued smoothly, it will be of great significance for seed industry enterprises that have obtained genetically modified safety certificates in the early stage. Relevant listed companies include Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) ( Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) ), Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) ( Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) ), Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) ( Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) ).
Risk tip: pig prices fluctuate sharply; Grain prices fluctuated sharply; Outbreak of African swine fever; Food safety issues; The commercialization of biological breeding in China is less than expected. eleven thousand five hundred and seventy-nine
