This week's follow-up of capital holding banks in the North: after the meeting of the financial committee, the sector was increased, mainly increasing positions for investment promotion, postal savings and other large state-owned banks with undervalued value.
1. Banking sector: increased holdings after the meeting of the financial committee. This week (3 / 14-3 / 18), the cumulative net outflow of northward funds from the banking sector was 198 million yuan, mainly due to the weak credit data in February and the increased uncertainty outside China on Monday and Tuesday. However, since the special meeting on economic situation and capital market held by the financial commission on Wednesday, the policy level has continued to raise market confidence, and the funds going north have turned into inflows again. The funds going north from 3 / 16 to 3 / 18 have flowed into the banking sector, with a total capital of about 1.54 billion yuan (ranking third among the 28 Shenwan industries, and the top two are household appliances and non bank), and the market value of shares has rebounded to 195.2 billion yuan, The proportion of A-Shares in the banking sector increased by 0.11pc to 1.97% from Tuesday's low.
2. Individual stocks: China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , postal savings and other undervalued state-owned banks were increased.
1) 1) 1) the funds of northnorthnorthnorth are the main banks held by the funds of northnorthnorthnorth. From the perspective of the bank shares held by the funds of northnorthnorth, the top six banks held by the funds of NorthNorth north are the 60036 . 61%, 0.26% and 0.25%, accounting for 8.2% of the circulating market value of their respective A shares 8.3%, 4.2%, 6.2%, 0.5% and 9.8%. On the whole, the six banks last week:
China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) obtained increased holdings. The net inflow of northbound funds was 1.34 billion yuan and 460 million yuan respectively, and the number of shares increased by 30 million shares and 90 million shares respectively, accounting for 0.15pc and 0.79pc of their respective A-share circulation market value respectively, and the proportion of northbound funds also increased by 0.25pc and 0.01pc.
Other banks have reduced their holdings. The net outflow of funds from Ping An, industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Ningbo and industrial and Commercial Bank of China going northward was 1.04 billion yuan, 50 million yuan, 250 million yuan and 100 million yuan, accounting for 0.37pc, 0.02pc, 0.11pc and 0.01pc of their respective A-share circulation market value respectively. The shareholding of Ping An and Ningbo in northward capital decreased by 0.04pc and 0.03pc respectively, while industrial and Commercial Bank of China and industrial and Commercial Bank of China were basically the same.
2) during the period from March 16 to March 18 when the funds going north flowed into the banking sector again, the positions were mainly increased by China Merchants Bank + large state-owned banks. Among them, China Merchants Bank received the largest net capital inflow, totaling 1.33 billion, the share price rose by 9.5%, and the proportion of its shareholding in the circulating market value of A-Shares increased by 0.15pc. In addition, the inflow of Bank of communications, China Construction Bank, postal savings bank and ICBC was more than 150 million yuan, and the proportion of shares held by postal savings bank and China Construction Bank in the circulating market value of A-Shares increased by more than 0.3pc.
Current view: the policy level makes a voice to stabilize confidence and pay attention to performance, and advantageous banks are expected to perform strongly.
1) industry: the main logic of this year's sector is that under the fist of policy combination, the transmission from broad currency to broad credit will lead to the repair of economic expectations and the improvement of valuation. In February, the social finance credit reflected that the financing supply was relatively positive, but the physical demand was still weak in terms of structure. Since March, the bill interest rate has been running at a low level, and whether the financing demand has recovered is still under observation. In terms of economic data, the growth rate of fixed investment rebounded sharply, infrastructure investment continued to rebound, and the issuance of local bonds accelerated recently. If this trend can continue, it is expected to form a continuous support for social finance and credit data in the future, which is conducive to the valuation and repair of the sector. In addition, the financial Commission held a special meeting to stabilize the expectation, and the general direction of steady growth will not change. Under the influence of the unstable external environment and repeated epidemics, the policy strength is expected to continue to increase, and the banking sector is still expected to rise in the shock. 2) Individual stocks: in recent years, the operation, performance and differentiation are relatively large. It is about to enter the performance disclosure period of the annual report and the first quarterly report. The excellent performance of high-quality banks is expected to catalyze the market. Recommendations focus on:
A. Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) : market-oriented mechanism, with low proportion of real estate business and low risk, and 15 profit centers are expected to ensure sustained and high performance growth. At present, the 22pb level is only about 1.5x, with high cost performance.
Chengdu Capital Construction Co., Ltd. has a strong willingness to transfer high-quality and small shares to Capital Construction Bank, etc.
C. banks with underestimated value and marginal performance improvement: postal savings, Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) etc.
D. after steady growth, steady employment and effective policies, high-quality retail banks are expected to usher in opportunities for valuation repair: investment promotion, Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) etc.
China Merchants Bank and Dongcai released annual reports: the two leaders maintained stable and high growth.
1. China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) : the performance has reached a new level and the asset quality has improved steadily.
1) performance: the operation continued to improve, the Q4 interest margin rebounded month on month, and the medium income growth supported by large wealth management was stable. In the 21st century, the annual revenue and profit increased by 14.0% and 23.2% respectively, of which Q4 increased by 2.5pc and 6pc respectively compared with Q3 in a single quarter. The high income growth is mainly due to: A. under the structural optimization, the Q4 interest margin increased by 1bp to 2.48% month on month; B. Medium income: the great wealth management strategy achieved remarkable results. The total income of asset management, wealth management and custody business exceeded 52 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 34%, accounting for nearly 16% of revenue;
2) asset quality: in the second half of the year, non-performing assets continued to decline, and the provision coverage rate was significantly 41pc increased to 484%. In addition, the bank's standard overdue rate was 1.06%, which was basically consistent with the third quarterly report. The annual non-performing rate was only 0.64%, basically unchanged from the interim report and decreased by 0.36pc compared with last year. In the whole year, the provision for non credit impairment was 28.9 billion yuan, the provision for non credit impairment at the end of the year was nearly 60 billion yuan (accounting for 20% of the overall provision for impairment), and the estimated allocation ratio of investment assets (impairment provision / credit debt + non-standard) has exceeded 15%. Sufficient provision for credit + non credit impairment and stable and excellent indicators will support the continuous and stable performance of China Merchants Bank in the future.
3) steady development of wealth management industry: the number of retail customers was 173 million, and the retail AUM increased by 20.33% to 10.76 trillion yuan over the beginning of the year. Wealth management fee income was 35.8 billion yuan, still maintaining a high growth rate of 29% year-on-year, up 3.2pc from the third quarterly report.
4) small exposure to public real estate + urban investment and limited risk. The overall exposure of real estate was 511489 billion yuan, accounting for only 5.5% of the total assets, down 0.3pc from the third quarterly report. The balance of broad caliber risk business of local government financing platforms was 261681 billion yuan, accounting for only 2.83% of the total assets;
5) other concerns: the provision coverage and loan allocation ratio of the annual report fluctuate compared with the performance express, or due to or due to the accounting caliber and parameter adjustment factors. The credit card overdue rate has increased, which is expected to be related to the increase of Q4, the transfer out of ABS and the decrease of denominator. It is expected that after excluding the influence of this factor, the actual non-performing index will continue to maintain a better level.
2. China stock market news: continued high growth, flexible and resilient performance. In 2021, the revenue was 13.09 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 59%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 8.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 79%.
Among them, Q4's single quarter revenue was + 51% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was + 68% year-on-year. Benefiting from the high prosperity of the capital market in 2021 and its own Internet advantages, the company has strong performance toughness and elasticity. From two aspects:
1) fund business: in 2021, the whole market non monetary funds issued 2.98 trillion, slightly lower than 3.11 trillion in 2020, but still at a high level. The company's annual non cargo based sales reached 1.34 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of more than 90%. Its Tiantian fund has 673.9 billion non commodity basic insurance and 537.1 billion equity funds, ranking third in the market, second only to China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) and ant fund. The growth rate of Q4 in a single quarter is more than 10%, the fastest among the top 20 institutions. The company's annual fund sales revenue was 5.07 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 71%, maintaining a performance elasticity higher than that of its peers. The company's customers have some experience in stock investment, and are relatively mature and professional as a whole. With the steady increase of the expected ownership, the fund business income still has a certain toughness. In 2022, although there were some fluctuations in the capital market and the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 10% since the beginning of the year, the user equity fund of Tiantian fund platform maintained a net subscription, with a cumulative net subscription amount of more than 20 billion (according to the data report of the financial Associated Press, as of March 9). The company's fund tail Commission and sales service fee income account for about 60%. Considering that the company's ownership scale is still improving steadily, although the new fund is relatively cold this year, the company's fund income is expected to be resilient and outperform its peers.
2) securities business: active market transactions + increased market share drive high performance growth. In 2021, the average daily transaction scale of stock base was 1.1 trillion, a year-on-year increase of + 25%. At the end of the year, the scale of dual financing in the market was 1.83 trillion, up + 13% from the end of 2020. The brokerage and two financing businesses of the company also showed strong performance flexibility. The net income of handling fees and commissions of Dongcai in the whole year reached 5.369 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 56%, of which the handling fees of brokerage business amounted to 4.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 52%; Net interest income was 2.32 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 51%.
Regular data tracking:
Equity market tracking: 1) trading volume: the average daily turnover of stocks this week was 1.11 trillion yuan, an increase of 25.6 billion yuan month on month. 2) Liangrong: the balance was 1.69 trillion yuan, down 1.52% from last week. 3) Fund issuance: this week, non monetary funds issued 15.142 billion shares, down 3.748 billion from last week. Since March, a total of 70.527 billion shares have been issued, a year-on-year decrease of 148735 billion. Among them, the stock type was 4.446 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 31.37 billion, and the hybrid type was 26.626 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 163185 billion.
Interest rate market tracking: 1) interbank certificates of deposit: A. volume: according to wind data, the issuance scale of interbank certificates of deposit this week was 0.63 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.68 billion yuan compared with last week; Since March, the issuance scale of interbank certificates of deposit has been 1.58 trillion yuan, and the current balance of interbank certificates of deposit is 14.32 trillion yuan, a decrease of 110.8 billion yuan compared with the end of last month; B. Price: the issuing rate of interbank certificates of deposit this week was 2.53%, down 1bps from last week; So far this month, the issue interest rate is 2.53%. 2) Bill interest rate: the 3-month discount rate of bank notes of state-owned banks + joint-stock banks this week was 1.80%, down 3bps from last week; Since March, the interest rate has been 1.91%, down 21bps month on month. The three-month bank note discount rate of urban commercial banks was 1.97%, down 8bps from last week. Since March, the interest rate has been 2.09%, down 22bps from last month. 3) Yield of 10-year Treasury bonds: the average yield of 10-year Treasury bonds this week was 2.79%, down 3 bp from last week. 4) Issuance scale of local government special bonds: 126653 billion new special bonds were issued this week, an increase of 36.613 billion month on month over last week. Since the beginning of the year, a total of 1.19 trillion yuan has been issued, and the amount of local bonds approved in advance in 2022 is 1.46 trillion yuan.
Risk tip: the risks of real estate enterprises erupted intensively, the steady growth policy was less than expected, and the macro-economy went down; The promotion of capital market reform policy is less than expected; The sales of guaranteed products of insurance companies were lower than expected.
