Market review: this week (March 14-18), Shenwan food and beverage industry increased by – 3.66% this week, which was greater than the decrease of – 1.46% in Shanghai and Shenzhen 300; Among them, the health products (Shenwan class III, the same below) (7.92%) sector led the increase in Shenwan class III food and beverage sectors; The three sectors of Baijiu (-6.69%), other alcoholic beverages (-4.66%) and soft drinks (-4.66%) were among the top three in shwan3 food and beverage sectors.
Baijiu: the epidemic situation does not change Baijiu consumption recovery, head concentration logic. Recently, first tier cities in Shanghai and Shenzhen have confirmed the number of confirmed cases and asymptomatic cases. Some areas such as Jilin, Shandong, Fujian and Zhejiang have also increased their diagnosis. Baijiu mainstream consumption scenes such as repeated epidemic, epidemic area drinking, banquets and gifts have stagnated, and the epidemic has disturbed the consumption of wine again. The recent decline of Maotai price is mainly due to the dual factors of short-term supply increase and consumption off-season. At present, the wholesale price level of Sanmao is about 2700 yuan, the box grass gradually returns to 3000 yuan, and the price difference between Sanmao and box grass basically returns to the range of Shenzhen Jt Automation Equipment Co.Ltd(300400) yuan. Since chairman Ding Xiongjun took office, Maotai has focused on the reform of marketing system and market-oriented price strategy. We believe that the decline of Pufei’s rating will help Maotai further straighten out channels and implement the reform of marketing system and price system. Although the recent epidemic has been repeated in many places, the impact of normalized prevention and control on the overall market of wine consumption is limited, and the logic of consumption recovery, head concentration and volume price driving is still in place. With the support of steady growth, wide currency and wide credit, and gradual stabilization and upward economic expectations, the regional leaders represented by Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) and the sauce wine represented by Xijiu, Jiannanchun, Shede Spirits Co.Ltd(600702) , Sichuan Swellfun Co.Ltd(600779) , Jiugui Liquor Co.Ltd(000799) are expected to continue to benefit.
Popular products: under normal prevention and control, focus on leading enterprises with excellent cost control and strong downstream bargaining power. With the improvement of vaccine coverage and the progress of treatment methods such as specific drugs, we believe that the recovery of consumption is still the long-term direction. Although the short-term epidemic is still repeated, the government’s normalized prevention and control policies are updated, enterprises are more fully prepared for the epidemic, and the actual impact margin is weakened. Affected by the price rise of crude oil and other bulk commodities, the cost side of mass goods is generally under pressure. Advantageous leading enterprises can reduce the pressure on the cost side through long-term price lock-in and scale effect. At the same time, they can effectively transmit the cost rise through price increase and cost control. Under the background that the demand still needs to recover and the price of raw materials increases, the leading enterprises will show strong business resilience. It is suggested to focus on the leading enterprises Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) , Chacha Food Company Limited(002557) , Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) , Chongqing Fuling Zhacai Group Co.Ltd(002507) , etc. with controllable cost of mass products. The beer sector suggests paying attention to the gradual improvement of the downstream demand side before the peak season. Under the general principle of “dynamic clearing”, the gradual listing of covid-19 specific drugs will help restore the consumption scene and boost consumer confidence. The cost side pressure of barley and packaging materials will be hedged after the recovery of downstream demand. It is expected that the volume and price will still be increased in stages under the trend of high-end.
Investment advice: Although on the one hand, Baijiu Baijiu has repeatedly restricted some consumption scenes, and on the other hand, the cost of continuous rising background, the price of mass goods hedging costs has risen or delayed, but the trend of consumption recovery has remained unchanged. The high end white wine Moutai, Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) , Luzhou Laojiao Co.Ltd(000568) and regional leading liquor companies are recommended. Volkswagen products is preferred to be the leader with industry pricing power and relatively controllable cost, and pay attention to Inner Mongolia Yili Industrial Group Co.Ltd(600887) .
Risk tips: the adjustment of restrictive industrial policies exceeded expectations, the scattered occurrence and control of the epidemic affected the recovery of consumption scenarios, the risk of higher than expected rise in raw material costs, food safety risks, etc.
