Digital economy infrastructure, data security, smart cars and other main lines are expected to continue the high boom in the first quarter, and the callback provides layout opportunities. With the intensive disclosure of the 21st Annual Report, Dawning Information Industry Co.Ltd(603019) , Westone Information Industry Inc(002268) , Shanghai Baosight Software Co.Ltd(600845) and other subdivision leading companies maintain high growth. Considering the base, it is expected that the follow-up growth rate of some tracks is expected to rise quarter by quarter. The growth of the computer industry is characterized by medium growth but strong sustainability. The short-term correction does not change the growth trend with high medium and long-term certainty. At present, the position of public funds in 2021q4 computer industry is still at a historical low. The position proportion of public funds in 2021q4 computer industry is 4.2%, and the over allocation proportion is about – 0.51%, which are close to the multi-year low since 2013. It is advisable to grasp the poor expectation of industrial evolution with optimism.
The industry boom remains high, and AI industrialization is expected to accelerate. The current annual report of the leading companies of AI track has not been fully disclosed, but the third quarter report of 2021 has performed well. The revenue of the core companies Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co.Ltd(002415) , Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co.Ltd(002236) , Iflytek Co.Ltd(002230) and the net profit returned to the parent company after deduction have shown relatively strong growth momentum, and the prosperity of the industry has remained high. At the same time, as AI technology has brought improvements to more and more enterprises for traditional management methods and enterprise operation processes, The improvement of the bargaining power of the industrial chain of AI racetrack company makes its operating net cash flow and accounts received in advance (contract liabilities) show a trend of continuous growth.
In the first year of data security outbreak, the short-term 10 billion market is dominated by technical service revenue, and the long-term SaaS operation revenue is expected to reach 100 billion. Pay attention to the leaders in the field of data security Westone Information Industry Inc(002268) and other laws and regulations such as data security law, customs protection regulations and personal information protection law are intensively issued and implemented. Only from the perspective of privacy computing, a component of data security, Gartner predicts that more than 80% of Companies in the world will face at least one data protection regulation focusing on privacy in 2023, In 2024, the expenditure of privacy driven data protection and compliance technology will exceed US $15 billion worldwide. With the implementation of the data security law and the rapid development of the data trading market, KPMG expects that China’s data security technical services are expected to reach 10 billion in 2023. With the cloud of IT architecture, it will leverage 100 billion of data security SaaS operating revenue in the long term.
The penetration rate of automobile intelligence has been continuously improved, and the prosperity has continued to be high. According to the data of Intelligent Automobile Research Institute of Gaogong, from January to June 2021, the front loading penetration rate of China’s new car (independent + joint venture brand) intelligent cockpit exceeded 50%, but the penetration rate of 2.0 with high intelligence level was only 15%, the penetration rate of 3.0 was about 1.46%, and the penetration rate of high-grade intelligent cockpit (2.0 and 3.0) reached 16.46%, approaching the important node of 20% in the science and technology industry, and the intelligent cockpit entered the critical point of deepening. According to Roland Berger data, the penetration rate of ADAS system at L2 level and above in China is expected to reach 40% in 2025, and the smart car industry chain will still maintain a high boom.
Production side cleaning and consumption side electrification have become the medium and long-term trend of China’s energy system, and endogenous energy it demand is driven. Previously, the construction of power transmission and transformation system did not consider the large-scale consumption of renewable energy, which is more similar to the construction and operation idea of “determining sales by production”. With the large-scale centralized grid connection on the supply side and the significant increase in the proportion of electrification on the demand side, the power grid investment will undergo structural changes: first, the power grid investment will continue to tilt towards the distribution network; Second, the proportion of intelligent and information investment related to the construction of power Internet of things will increase significantly. Through the information entropy reduction of energy digitization and the thermodynamic entropy increase of energy physical system, the double carbon IT investment opportunity has come.
The steady development of finance can be expected, and the leading companies are expected to benefit from the core. The improvement of capital market infrastructure plays an important role in boosting industrial development and increasing residents’ wealth. Since 2019, capital market reform policies have been frequent, and important measures such as science and innovation board, registration system, fund investment adviser, refinancing, REITs new regulations and Beijing stock exchange have been implemented one after another, showing an accelerated trend of reform. At the same time, the leading companies of bank it and payment it are expected to fully benefit from the steady development of the industry and the continuous upgrading of technology. Among them, digital RMB, as the “soft bottom” of digital economy, is expected to become an important means of internal regulation and external internationalization.
Cloud computing penetration is clearly improved, upstream demand is expected to hit the bottom and rebound, and the industry boom may be ready for repair. In terms of the global environment, the cloud revenue of overseas technology giants in 2021q4 continues to increase, the AWS revenue still reaches about 40% year-on-year, the capital expenditure is expected to be significantly better in 2022, and the infrastructure investment is expected to further increase; Intel DCG’s growth rate continued to pick up, with a year-on-year growth rate of 20% in 2021q4, the highest in nearly six quarters.
The performance of the main leading companies of Xinchuang was fulfilled, and the scale of Xinchuang in the industry was implemented in the first year. The overall penetration rate of industry information innovation is still low, with broad room for improvement, or the largest increment in the future. Considering that the industry information innovation has more servers and more complex business system requirements than the party and government information innovation, it is expected to become a huge market far exceeding the party and government information innovation in the future with the increase of penetration rate. The bidding of Xinchuang is expected to advance smoothly and reach 800 billion yuan in 2025.
The new medical IT infrastructure is at the right time to grasp the medium and long-term investment opportunities of leading enterprises. The short-term policy requires that by the end of 2022, the electronic medical record rating of national level II and level III hospitals will reach level 3 and level 4 respectively, the average level of intelligent service will strive to reach level 2 and level 3, and the average level of intelligent management will strive to reach level 1 and level 2. The demand in subdivided areas is expected to accelerate. In addition to the implementation of the “ten thousand medical centers” and the “five thousand medical centers” project, it is expected to further promote the regional transformation of the “ten thousand medical centers” and the “five thousand medical centers”, which are highly attractive for the implementation of the “five thousand medical centers” project.
The prosperity and barriers of the industrial software industry are both high, the scale advantage of the leading enterprises, and the valuation of some leading enterprises has been significantly adjusted. From industry 1.0 to industry 4.0, the improvement of intelligence and the maturity of industrial software system provide fertile ground for the growth of industrial giants. Overseas giants are not only the promoters of the industrialization process in Europe and America, but also the witnesses and beneficiaries. In 2020, the proportion of employed population in China’s primary industry decreased to 24%, which is close to the middle of industrialization, and the global proportion of industrial added value has also reached 26%. At the same time, with the high-frequency support of policies, it is urgent for China’s industrial software to keep pace with the world. Horizontally comparing the development history of European industrial giants, we believe that China’s industrial intelligence and industrial software industry have shown dividends of the times. Dassault’s growth process can be described as “a stone from another mountain”. The combination of high-intensity R & D investment and continuous M & A is worthy of our Chinese industrial intelligence and industrial software enterprises to learn and emulate.
Investment suggestions:
Digital Economy: 1) digital economy base: Dawning Information Industry Co.Ltd(603019) , Inspur Electronic Information Industry Co.Ltd(000977) , China Greatwall Technology Group Co.Ltd(000066) ; 2) Xinchuang and Huawei: Beijing Baolande Software Corporation(688058) , Ninestar Corporation(002180) , Beijing Vastdata Technology Co.Ltd(603138) , Urovo Technology Co.Ltd(300531) , Beijing Tongtech Co.Ltd(300379) ; 3) Data security: Westone Information Industry Inc(002268) , Qi An Xin Technology Group Inc(688561) , Dbappsecurity Co.Ltd(688023) .
Industrial Digitization: 1) dual carbon it: Longshine Technology Group Co.Ltd(300682) , Ygsoft Inc(002063) , Shenzhen Jieshun Science And Technology Industry Co.Ltd(002609) ; 2) Smart car: Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Thunder Software Technology Co.Ltd(300496) , Neusoft Corporation(600718) , Navinfo Co.Ltd(002405) ; 3) Digital RMB: Digital RMB: the following digital digital RMB: the number of digital RMB: the following of the following digital RMB: the Xgd Inc(300130) the.
Medium and long term main line: 1) Artificial Intelligence: Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co.Ltd(002415) , Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co.Ltd(002236) , Iflytek Co.Ltd(002230) . 2) Cloud Computing: Glodon Company Limited(002410) , Beijing Shiji Information Technology Co.Ltd(002153) , Beijing Kingsoft Office Software Inc(688111) , Yonyou Network Technology Co.Ltd(600588) , Pansoft Company Limitid(300996) , Sangfor Technologies Inc(300454) . 3) Financial it: China stock market news, Hundsun Technologies Inc(600570) , Hithink Royalflush Information Network Co.Ltd(300033) .
Risk warning: the economic downturn exceeded expectations; Financial expenditure is lower than expected; Trade frictions intensified.
