Current report: series report of vaccine industry (4): the rise of domestic HPV vaccine and the golden decade of stock market
In this issue, we will discuss human papillomavirus vaccine HPV. HPV vaccine is a global heavyweight variety. It has achieved immediate results in the field of cervical cancer prevention and treatment in the past 15 years. In 2017, China successively approved the import of msd4 / 9 price and gsk2 price products. At the end of 2019, the domestic bivalent HPV vaccine was approved. The following year, who announced the strategy of accelerating the elimination of cervical cancer, and China started the pilot work of free vaccination. We believe that China's HPV vaccine stock market has a broad space, and the rise of domestic HPV vaccine, together with Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) / MSD high-end varieties, will be a golden decade to digest the stock market in the future. Investment suggestion: buy Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) ( Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) ), Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) ( Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) ), etc.
Previous reports:
"Vaccine industry series report (1) covid-19 vaccine: repeated global epidemics, domestic vaccines at the right time" delta mutant has brought uncertainty to the global epidemic resistance due to its high infectivity. Covid-19 vaccine adopts multi technology path saturation research and development strategy, and more than 10 products have been successfully commercialized through four technology paths: mRNA, adenovirus vector, whole virus inactivation and recombinant protein. While enhancing the transmissibility of the mutant strain, it also weakens the protective power of the vaccine. It is necessary to adhere to non drug interventions while widely vaccinating the highly protective vaccine. High income countries have started to strengthen immunization, the first round of immunization needs of low - and middle-income countries have not been fully met, and the inflection point of covid-19 vaccine supply and demand has not been reached. Short term focus on strengthening and internationalization; Return to products and technologies from a long-term perspective. Covid-19 epidemic has accelerated the verification and large-scale use of cutting-edge technologies such as mRNA vaccine. In addition to covid-19, other fields such as infectious diseases, tumor immunity, antibody and protein replacement therapy also have great application potential to be explored.
Series report of vaccine industry (2): expanding new drug forms and promising mRNA Technology
In the form of review, we reviewed the development process of mRNA drug industry, and discussed the key technologies, patents and process barriers in detail; Combing the mRNA drug treatment field, pipeline layout and R & D progress, and calculating the long-term market space; The competitive pattern and development strategy of mRNA enterprises at home and abroad are compared and analyzed. We believe that mRNA, as a new drug form, has a bright application prospect and broad market space. In the short term, covid-19 mRNA vaccine business accelerates and is expected to continue to contribute to cash flow; In the medium and long term, technology is the core driving force for the growth of the industry. We are optimistic about platform enterprises with strong innovation ability and rapid promotion of multiple pipelines.
Vaccine industry series report (3): rabies elimination strategy 2030, "human + pet" rabies vaccine with two pronged approach
The global burden of rabies is heavy. In 2015, who and three major international organizations proposed the strategy of "eliminating rabies by 2030". Many overseas countries have successfully eliminated human rabies by popularizing human and animal rabies vaccines, supplemented by dog management and other means. Rabies vaccine has experienced many technical upgrades since its invention. At present, Vero cell rabies vaccine is widely used. The gold standard hdcv recommended by who is mainly used in developed countries, and the proportion of China is increasing Chengdu Kanghua Biological Products Co.Ltd(300841) is a leading enterprise in hdcv, with first mover advantages in production technology, clinical data accumulation, academic promotion, consumer education and terminal coverage. Kanghua animal protection Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of Kanghua animal protection Co., Ltd., will be established to sell wild vaccines for animals as an agent and layout the pet vaccine market. It is expected to take advantage of the pet economic boom and open the second growth curve Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) diploid crazy seedlings are accepted for production application, which is expected to contribute to performance increment.
HPV vaccine is a global heavyweight variety
Cervical cancer is one of the most common gynecological malignancies in the world. In 2020, the number of global morbidity and mortality cases reached 604000 and 342000 respectively. China contributed about 15-20% of them. The burden of cervical cancer is heavy. The incidence of cervical cancer is highly related to HPV infection. HPV vaccine research and development has experienced 30 years and the joint efforts of scientists from many countries. At present, there are four products on the market all over the world. Among them, the global sales of MSD Gardasil series reached US $5.673 billion in 2021, surpassing Pfizer "Peier 13" for the first time and becoming the world's best-selling non covid-19 vaccine product.
Jointly promote the 2030 strategy to accelerate the elimination of cervical cancer
HPV vaccine has been used overseas for more than 15 years. It has an immediate effect on the prevention of cervical cancer and has experienced the test of time. Who put forward the strategy of accelerating the elimination of global cervical cancer in 2020. 194 countries, including China, promised to vaccinate more than 90% of girls aged 9-14 by 2030. The global HPV market is dumbbell shaped. Most high-income countries have incorporated HPV into national immunization planning, free vaccination or have a mature medical insurance payment system, and the penetration rate of school-age people is high; Low / middle-income countries, supported by international organizations and HPV production enterprises, enjoy lower purchase prices and rapidly improve their coverage; China successively introduced msd4 / 9 price and gsk2 price products in 2017. The domestic bivalent HPV vaccine was approved at the end of 2019, and China started the pilot work of free vaccination the next year.
China's HPV 100 billion market
There are about 360 million women aged 9-45 in China (about 120 million women of urban age). Since the introduction of HPV products in China in 2017, the total number of HPV products approved and issued is about 65 million, equivalent to about 20 million people. The overall population penetration rate is about 5.5% (the penetration rate of urban women is about 16.5%). Based on 3-needle immunization program, 300 yuan / piece price and 50% stock penetration rate, the stock market scale reaches 150 billion. With the rise of domestic HPV enterprises, several 9-price pipelines have been promoted to PH3 clinic, and Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) acts as an agent for MSD high-end varieties to share China's stock market.
Risk warning: product sales are less than expected; Increased competition in China has led to a sharp decline in product prices; The construction of production capacity projects does not meet expectations; The progress of R & D pipeline does not meet expectations or fails; Risks such as failure to renew the agreement with the partner or the content of the agreement does not meet expectations.
Investment suggestion: in the short term, we should focus on the release of production capacity, and in the medium and long term, we should pay attention to product upgrading and global market expansion
China's HPV vaccine products are fully promoted, consumers are willing to vaccinate, and the stock market space is broad; In 2020, many provinces and cities successively put forward HPV vaccine free vaccination programs. The short-term 2 import + 3 domestic pattern is stable, the purchase amount of MSD / Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) agency agreement maintains a high growth rate, and Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) production capacity is gradually released, which is expected to quickly seize their respective target market share; In the medium and long term, five HPV products of four Chinese enterprises are in PH3 clinical stage and are expected to be listed successively around 2025, forming a pattern of 2 imports + 5-6 domestic products, 2 / 3 / 4 / 9 price product differentiation competition, product upgrading progress and international market expansion are the core driving forces. Investment suggestion: it is suggested to buy Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) ( Beijing Wantai Biological Pharmacy Enterprise Co.Ltd(603392) ), Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) ( Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) ), etc.
