Core view: from January to February 2022, the growth rate of business volume in the industry slightly exceeded expectations, and the single ticket price continued to be strong. Considering the good performance of unit price in 2022 and the continuous tightening of policy supervision, we believe that the single ticket net profit of Tongda company will be significantly improved. It is suggested to actively grasp the investment opportunities of Tongda company in the first quarter and the whole year of 2022.
Volume: from January to February, the express business volume grew by 19.6%, slightly faster than expected. In February, the express business volume reached 6.9 billion pieces, with a year-on-year increase of 49.7%, mainly because the Spring Festival in 2022 and the Spring Festival in 2021 are not in the same period (the Spring Festival holiday in 2022 is from the end of January to the first ten days of February, and the Spring Festival holiday in 2021 is about the middle of February). From January to February, the cumulative business volume of Yuantong / Yunda / Shentong / SF express was 23 / 27.3/17.1/1.63 billion tickets respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 28% / 31% / 39% / 2%. In terms of share, the market share of Yuantong / Yunda / Shentong / Shunfeng in February was 14% / 17.6% / 10.5% / 9.2% respectively, with a year-on-year change of + 2.5 / + 2.4 / + 2 / – 5.9 percentage points. The share of express head enterprises increased significantly. Since the second half of 2021, SF has taken the initiative to optimize the product structure and reduce the number of products with low gross profit, and the market share has decreased slightly.
Price: the unit price of express delivery remained strong in February, and Shentong strategic expansion. In February, the business income of national express service enterprises increased by 27.4% year-on-year, reaching 65.71 billion yuan. Among them, the logistics business revenue of Yuantong / Yunda / Shentong / SF Express Division was RMB 25.77/28.5/18.69/9.849 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 87% / 88% / 76% / – 3%. In terms of single ticket revenue, the single ticket revenue of Yuantong / Yunda / Shentong / SF express segment was 2.66/2.34/2.59/15.44 yuan respectively, with a year-on-year change of 2.3% / 8.3% / – 4.8% / 5.5% respectively. At the end of 2021, the settlement method of Tongda express and rookie wrapping business was adjusted from settlement with franchisees to settlement with the company, and the express unit price was slightly increased. Excluding the above influence, the unit price of Yuantong / Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) is 2.60/2.44 yuan respectively. In February 2022, the unit price of Yunda increased year-on-year, considering the impact of the lower unit price in the same period last year. The price change of Shentong was – 4.8%, with a negative year-on-year range, with a trend of strategic expansion. In terms of grain producing areas, Yiwu completed 1.58 billion pieces of business in February, with a unit price of 307 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.94%.
Outlook: at present, the industry has entered the off-season. Considering the negative impact of the epidemic in China’s high-speed cities in March on business volume, there is a possibility of intensifying price competition in some areas under low demand. However, we believe that under strong supervision, the price competition probability is phased. It is expected that the industry will still be in the repair cycle of easing competition in 2022, and the off-season price will decline month on month, but the year-on-year probability is still significantly improved.
Express is still in the repair cycle and continues to recommend shuntongda as the head enterprise and S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) . Tongda is still in the cycle of policy control and competitive repair. At present, the industry price is still strong. We believe that the single ticket revenue rate of the express industry in 2022 will be better than that in 2021. We are optimistic about the price elasticity of top enterprises in the first quarter of 2022 and continue to pay attention to the price trend of the industry in the off-season from March to May S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) production capacity deployment is gradually slowing down, capacity utilization is gradually climbing, capacity cycle and management cycle are superimposed, and the certainty of marginal repair is high. Maintain the “buy” rating of Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) , and China Express.
Risk warning events: the implementation of relevant policies is still uncertain, and the price war may still intensify; If the long-term cost curve of the industry is flat, it will not be conducive to the differentiation between enterprises.
