Repeated epidemics at home and abroad, drug treatment and vaccine protection
From a global perspective, as of March 2022, the total number of confirmed cases has exceeded 460 million, and the cumulative global death cases have exceeded 6.07 million; More than 10.9 billion doses of covid-19 vaccine have been vaccinated in the world, and China ranks first in the world, with more than 3.2 billion doses, and the whole process vaccination rate is about 85%. Given that the number of confirmed cases after vaccination is still increasing and there is uncertainty about the recurrence of the epidemic at home and abroad, drug treatment will provide continuity for covid-19 treatment after vaccination.
Western medicine joins hands with traditional Chinese medicine to overcome covid-19 epidemic
In covid-19 treatment, neutralizing antibodies and small molecule drugs are the two most important means in covid-19 prevention and treatment. In terms of small molecule drugs, Pfizer paxlovid and mosadon molnupiravir have achieved relatively clear curative effects and are widely used all over the world. Relevant research on Chinese Junshi vv116 and real biological azvudine is also in full swing. In terms of neutralization antibody, the US regenerated yuan / Roche, GSK/Vir, Lilly / Jun were distributed the top three, China Tengsheng pharmaceutical BRII-196/BRII-198 was approved and joined the ninth edition of New Coronavirus pneumonia diagnosis and treatment plan. In terms of traditional Chinese medicine, “three drugs and three prescriptions” go out of the anti epidemic route with Chinese characteristics, “three medicines” are Jinhua qinggan granule, Lianhua Qingwen capsule / granule and Xuebijing injection, “three prescriptions” are Qingfei Paidu decoction, Huashi Baidu prescription and Xuanfei Baidu prescription, all of which are from classic famous prescriptions. Meanwhile, in March 2022, the expert consensus on prevention and treatment of New Coronavirus pneumonia with proprietary Chinese medicine was released, and a variety of anti epidemic Chinese medicines were recommended.
Up and down, covid-19 industrial chain has a good prospect
With the rapid development of cod-19 and the commercialization of cod-19 intermediates, the demand for cod-19 intermediates has entered the stage of unprecedented commercialization. Moshadong molnupiravir chain: MPP takes the lead in releasing incremental demand; Pfizer paxlovid chain: the original research capacity is planned to be 120 million courses in 2022 to activate the whole industrial chain; Other chains: yanyeyi’s supply chain drive is imminent, and the domestic oral covid-19 drug chain is worth looking forward to.
Covid-19 supply chain is an important opportunity for China cdmo to open the international market and participate in the global production of innovative drugs. The popularity of covid-19 oral small molecule drugs has brought huge increment to China’s small molecule cdmo. At present, China’s leading small molecule cdmo enterprises have occupied an important position in the covid-19 industrial chain with strong capacity supply, cost advantage and delivery capacity. From the perspective of orders, at present, the small molecule cdmo head enterprises Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) and Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) . In terms of production capacity, with the support of sustained high prosperity and large orders, leading enterprises have entered the stage of accelerated production capacity construction.
Investment suggestions and related objects
The release of the ninth edition of the New Coronavirus pneumonia diagnosis and treatment plan and the expert consensus on the prevention and treatment of New Coronavirus pneumonia by Chinese patent medicine has played a new guiding role in the prevention and control of COVID-19 in China. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities of the whole industrial chain. The relevant beneficiary listed companies are as follows:
Upstream and downstream of the industrial chain
Intermediate and API supply chain: Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603456) , Apeloa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000739) , Zhe Jiang Hua Hai Pharmaceuticalco.Ltd(600521) , Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) , Aba Chemicals Corporation(300261) , Ningbo Menovo Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603538) , Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co.Ltd(600196) , etc
Cdmo: Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) , Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , etc
Western Medicine
Small molecule drugs: Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) , Xiansheng pharmaceutical, Geli pharmaceutical, Frontier Biotechnologies Inc(688221) , Yunding Xinyao, Shan Dong Kexing Bioproducts Co.Ltd(688136) , etc
Neutralizing antibodies: tengshengbo medicine, Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) , Baiji Shenzhou, Sinocelltech Group Limited(688520) , Maiwei biology, Fuhong Hanlin, jiminxin, Boan biology, etc
Membrane fusion inhibitors: Youcare Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(688658) , Jinbo biology, etc
Traditional Chinese Medicine
Three drugs and three parties: Shijiazhuang Yiling Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(002603) , Tianjin Chase Sun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300026) , Zhangzhou Pientzehuang Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600436) , Chinese traditional medicine, Shandong Buchang Pharmaceuticals Co.Ltd(603858) , etc
Consensus related: Jiangsu Kanion Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600557) , Beijing Tongrentang Co.Ltd(600085) pharmaceutical, Hubei Jumpcan Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(600566) , China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000999) etc
Risk tips
Covid-19 epidemic development and change risk, product R & D data and progress are less than expected risk, product capacity and sales are less than expected risk, orders are less than expected risk, policy risk, etc.
