In February, the auto market increased slightly, and the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles reached 21.6%
Affected by the shortage of chips and the long Spring Festival holiday, the car sales in February 2022 reached 1.737 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 18.7% / month on month decrease of - 31.4%, but showed a rapid growth year on year. From January to February 2022, the car sales reached a new high in recent four years, and the demand remained stable as a whole. The sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles in February was 321000, with a year-on-year increase of + 182.2% / month on month increase of - 23.4%, maintaining a strong year-on-year growth, and the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles reached 21.6%.
The 15 Fawer Automotive Parts Limited Company(000030) 0000 passenger car market is improving, driving the upward penetration of ASP and new energy
In terms of price, the growth of passenger cars in 2021 is mainly driven by the market growth of less than 50000 and more than 200000. In February 2022, the price of 15 Fawer Automotive Parts Limited Company(000030) 0000 will bring rapid force to the market, and the proportion will gradually increase. In 2022, the proportion of 15 Fawer Automotive Parts Limited Company(000030) 0000 passenger cars increased, driving the increase of ASP, and the ASP of 22m2 reached a new peak of 192100 yuan per month. The product strength and competitive willingness of independent car enterprises represented by Chang'an, Geely, great wall and Byd Company Limited(002594) continued to improve. In February 2022, the market share of independent passenger cars reached 43%, contributing to the steady growth of the passenger car market.
Lack of core restricts the release of independent leading production and marketing, and 2022h2 is expected to start a new round of industrial recovery
Byd Company Limited(002594) and other independent brands maintain a strong growth momentum, laying a solid foundation for the growth of the auto market in 2022. Under the supply side chip replenishment in 2022, the backlog demand for new energy is expected to be released faster. Under optimistic assumptions, 2022h2 is expected to confirm a new round of inventory cycle recovery in the automotive industry, and the passenger car sector will usher in a configuration opportunity for valuation repair.
Market performance this week: this week, the A-share auto sector (shenwanyi industry) - 0.64%, stronger than CSI 300 (- 0.94%), ranking 9th among 32 shenwanyi industries. In the sub segments, auto parts - 0.77%, passenger cars - 0.77%, Automotive Services - 1.31%, commercial passenger cars - 1.45%, other transportation equipment - 2.32% and commercial cargo vehicles - 3.34%. The top five gainers of the auto sector this week were Sinomach Automobile Co.Ltd(600335) (+ 15.88%), Wuhan Lincontrol Automotive Electronics Co.Ltd(688667) (+ 14.15%), Anhui Ankai Automobile Co.Ltd(000868) (+ 13.87%), Kunshan Huguang Auto Harness Co.Ltd(605333) (+ 10.78%), Sichuan Chuanhuan Technology Co.Ltd(300547) (+ 10.48%); The top five declines were Hunan Oil Pump Co.Ltd(603319) (- 6.84%), Chongqing Qin'An M&E Plc(603758) (- 7.44%), Actblue Co.Ltd(300816) (- 8.31%), Huaiji Dengyun Auto-Parts (Holding) Co.Ltd(002715) (- 8.63%), Zhejiang Xiantong Rubber & Plastic Co.Ltd(603239) (- 8.98%).
Investment suggestion: according to the estimation of passenger car demand from January to February, the annual growth rate of passenger cars in 2022 is about 9.7%, higher than the upper limit of our prediction range of - 5% - 7.3%. Looking forward to March, the industry is expected to grow by - 3.1% to 9.44% year-on-year. At the end of this round of active replenishment cycle, the industry has determined to enter the passive replenishment stage in May 2021. The passenger car sector has been fully repaired after the recovery period, with a significant premium compared with the parts sector. Before confirming the recovery of a new round of automobile cycle, there is only band opportunity. The automobile sector generates sub industries in rotation, and the parts sector is expected to become the main line of optimal allocation. For passenger cars, it is suggested to pay attention to Geely motors, Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) and Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) ; The parts sector recommends companies related to chassis by wire Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) , Zhejiang Asia-Pacific Mechanical & Electronic Co.Ltd(002284) , Zhejiang Zhaofeng Mechanical And Electronic Co.Ltd(300695) , and it is recommended to pay attention to Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation(603197) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) and Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) .
Risk tip: the squeeze of real estate on consumption and the higher than expected rise of raw material costs have restored the low gross profit margin of the industry; The global chip shortage restricts the supply of cars more than expected, resulting in lower sales than expected
