Key investment points:
Market review: as of March 18, 2022, Shenwan auto sector fell 0.64% in the week, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 0.30 percentage points, ranking ninth among Shenwan’s 31 industries. Among the five sub sectors of Shenwan automobile industry, only passenger cars rose slightly, the other sub sectors fell, and the commercial vehicle sector fell the most. The specific performance is as follows: the passenger car sector rose 0.17%, the auto parts sector fell 0.77%, the auto service sector fell 1.31%, the motorcycle and other sectors fell 1.31%, and the commercial vehicle sector fell 2.82%. The top three companies with weekly growth were concentric transmission, Hyunion Holding Co.Ltd(002537) , Sinomach Automobile Co.Ltd(600335) , with growth rates of 31.00%, 19.41% and 15.88% respectively. The top three companies with weekly declines were Ningbo Fangzheng Automobile Mould Co.Ltd(300998) , Zhejiang Xiantong Rubber & Plastic Co.Ltd(603239) , Huaiji Dengyun Auto-Parts (Holding) Co.Ltd(002715) , with declines of 9.79%, 8.98% and 8.63% respectively. In terms of valuation, as of March 18, the PE TTM of Shenwan automobile sector was 25 times, at the quantile of 67.45% in recent five years and 78.81% in recent ten years; In terms of sub sectors, the PE TTM of automobile service sector is 19 times, that of auto parts sector is 24 times, that of passenger car sector is 30 times, and that of commercial vehicle sector is 18 times.
View of the Auto Industry Week: this week, the auto sector first restrained and then increased, the decline narrowed significantly, and the market performance was relatively ahead. In terms of sub sectors, passenger cars rose slightly, and auto parts fell slightly. This week, the China Automobile Association released the automobile production and sales data in February. From January to February, the automobile production and sales increased by 8.8% and 7.5% respectively year-on-year, and the passenger vehicle production and sales increased by 17.6% and 14.4% respectively year-on-year from January to February. The continuous improvement of chip supply and the demand for replenishment drive the good growth of automobile production and sales. It is expected that the overall automobile production and sales will pick up, Q1 is expected to achieve moderate growth, and the competitiveness of independent brands in China will continue to improve. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continued the high growth momentum, and the penetration rate continued to rise. However, with the decline of subsidies and the sharp rise in the price of raw materials, a number of electric vehicles have announced price increases, and the impact on subsequent orders needs to be further observed. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has disrupted the global automobile industry chain, and the suspension of many overseas automobile manufacturers has had a certain impact on the overseas business of some Chinese auto parts manufacturers. After substantial adjustment in the early stage, the sector shows signs of stabilizing in the short term. It is suggested to pay attention to the transformation targets of electric intelligent vehicles: Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) ( Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) ), Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) ( Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) ), Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) ( Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) ), Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) ( Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) ), China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) ( China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) ).
Risk tip: the price of raw materials has risen sharply, the production and sales of automobiles are less than expected, the improvement of chip supply is less than expected, the impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on the global automobile industry chain, the safety risk of electric vehicles, etc.
