In February, the CSI 300 index rose by 0.4%, and the Shenwan automobile index rose by 0.6%, slightly stronger than the CSI 300 index. In February, 1.737 million vehicles were sold, with a year-on-year increase of 18.7% and a month on month decrease of 31.4%; Among them, the sales volume of passenger cars was 1.487 million, and the chip supply eased, resulting in a year-on-year increase of 27.8% and a month on month decrease of 32.0%; The sales of 250000 commercial vehicles decreased by 16.6% year-on-year and 27.4% month on month, and the sales of trucks and buses decreased year-on-year. In February, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 334000, with a year-on-year increase of 184.3%, continuing the trend of rapid development last year, and the penetration rate was as high as 19%. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities in the industrial chain.
Main points
In February, the wholesale sales volume of passenger cars achieved positive growth year-on-year. According to the data of the passenger Federation, in February, the wholesale sales volume of narrow passenger cars was 1.455 million, up 26.9% year-on-year, down 32.6% month on month, and the retail sales volume reached 1.246 million, up 4.2% year-on-year and down 40.0% month on month. The demand for passenger cars is still strong, and the overall trend of retail is good; The chip has eased in the short term, and the wholesale sales volume has increased year-on-year. However, the combination of chip shortage and repeated outbreaks in China is still an important restrictive factor for production and sales. The subsequent gradual mitigation is expected to promote the growth of production and sales. It is suggested to make a positive layout. In February, the sales volume of luxury brand passenger cars in China was 160000, down 3% year-on-year and 44% month on month. The demand for high-end replacement brought by consumption upgrading is still strong. Mainstream joint venture brands decreased by 1% year-on-year, which is expected to be related to the relatively large impact of chip shortage and the decline of brand attraction. Independent brands increased by 14% year-on-year. Independent head enterprises have strong industrial chain toughness and effectively resolve the pressure of chip shortage. In addition, new energy sales have performed well Byd Company Limited(002594) and other auto companies have performed relatively well, so it is recommended to continue to pay attention.
In February, the production and sales of commercial vehicles continued to be under pressure in the short term. According to the data of China Automobile Association, the sales of commercial vehicles in February were 250000, a year-on-year decrease of 16.6%. Among them, 227000 trucks were sold, a year-on-year decrease of 17.8%; Affected by the full implementation of national VI emission in July 2021, some demands are overdrawn in advance, so the sales volume is under pressure in the short term. In the long run, the treatment of “large ton and small standard” will reduce the single vehicle capacity of the original light truck models exceeding the standard, which is expected to increase the sales of compliant light trucks and medium trucks. Passenger car sales were 23000, a year-on-year decrease of 3.6%, large passenger and medium passenger increased by 26.1% and 4.7% respectively, and light passenger decreased by 6.4% year-on-year. With the improvement of China’s epidemic situation and economic recovery, it is expected that the subsequent sales of medium and light buses are expected to recover gradually.
The sales volume of new energy vehicles continued high growth in February. In February, the sales of new energy vehicles were 334000, with a year-on-year increase of 184.3%, continuing the trend of rapid development last year. The sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles was 321000, with a year-on-year increase of 182.2% and a penetration rate of 21.6%; Among them, the popular models of Byd Company Limited(002594) Han / Qin / song / Tang / dolphin, Wuling Hongguang mini and Tesla Model3 / y make Byd Company Limited(002594) , SAIC GM Wuling and Tesla perform well, and relevant auto enterprises and industrial chains are expected to benefit. The sales volume of new energy commercial vehicles was 13000, with a year-on-year increase of 251.3%; Among them, 1485 new energy buses above 7m were sold, with a year-on-year increase of 10.0%, and the sales of Yutong Bus Co.Ltd(600066) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , CRRC electric ranked among the top three. The follow-up of new energy vehicles is expected to continue high growth. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to investment opportunities in relevant industrial chains.
Investment advice
Complete vehicle: the sales volume of passenger cars has recovered, but the differentiation of car enterprises has intensified. It is recommended to Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , and pay attention to Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) . Commercial vehicle heavy truck and light truck are expected to maintain a high boom, paying attention to Beiqi Foton Motor Co.Ltd(600166) etc.
Parts and components: auto sales have recovered recently, raw material prices have eased, and high-quality enterprises are optimistic about the long-term development. It is suggested to lay out individual stocks for product upgrading, customer expansion and undervalued repair. It is recommended to recommend Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) , Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) , Ningbo Huaxiang Electronic Co.Ltd(002048) , and pay attention to Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) , Ningbo Jifeng Auto Parts Co.Ltd(603997) , Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation(603197) , Nanjing Chervon Auto Precision Technology Co.Ltd(603982) , etc.
New energy: the sales volume of new energy vehicles is expected to continue to explode in 2022, with strong certainty of subsequent high growth. Recommend China’s leading Byd Company Limited(002594) , as well as Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) , made by Tesla and Volkswagen MEB, and pay attention to Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , etc.
Smart Internet connection: ADAS and smart cockpit have penetrated rapidly, and Huawei Xiaomi and other industries have accelerated their development. Recommend Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Ningbo Joyson Electronic Corp(600699) , pay attention to Foryou Corporation(002906) , Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Hunan Oil Pump Co.Ltd(603319) , etc.
Risk tips
1) the automobile sales volume is lower than expected; 2) Shortage and price rise of raw materials; 3) The price of products has been greatly reduced.
