This week’s opinion update:
The growth rate of infrastructure construction has obviously warmed up, and the main opportunity of “stable growth” is firmly recommended: from January to February of 22 years, the growth rate of infrastructure construction in the broad and narrow sense has obviously warmed up, or it is mainly due to the gradual formation of physical workload after the funds are in place. In order to ensure the realization of the 22-year economic growth target, “steady growth” is imperative. The transfer payment of the central government and the accelerated issuance of REITs will provide a new source of funds for “steady growth”. Firmly optimistic about the “steady growth” sector and infrastructure operation
Enterprises with business assets.
Many ministries and commissions actively stated that the real estate chain may usher in a fundamental recovery: this week, many ministries and commissions actively stated that for real estate enterprises, they should timely study and put forward effective risk prevention and resolution solutions. The positive statements of many ministries and commissions inject certainty into the stable and healthy development of the real estate industry. In the future, a series of stability maintenance policies and measures may be issued to help high-quality real estate enterprises resolve credit risks and judge that the real estate chain may usher in a fundamental recovery.
Raising REITs is imperative, and the pilot of affordable rental housing may be accelerated: this week, the national development and Reform Commission and the CSRC issued documents proposing to accelerate the pilot of REITs. At present, they are studying and formulating REITs raising rules, and speeding up the pilot of affordable rental housing. REITs raising will solve the overheated trading of REITs products caused by asset shortage and insufficient supply of REITs products in the early stage from the supply side; The further expansion of the pilot scope of REITs can increase the source of infrastructure funds, help “steady growth” and reduce the risk of local government debt.
Market performance and high frequency data tracking this week:
Market performance: this week, CITIC Building materials index was – 0.33%, of which glass sector increased the most (+ 3.56%) and ceramic sector decreased the most (- 3.93%); This week, CITIC construction index was – 1.34%, of which the building decoration II sector increased the most (+ 4.26%) and the garden engineering sector decreased the most (- 3.48%); This week, the infrastructure public offering REITs sector fell by an average of – 3.52% (arithmetic average), of which Ping An Guangzhou Guanghe REIT rose the most (+ 0.32%), and laterite Shenzhen Yan Tian Port Holdings Co.Ltd(000088) reit fell the most (- 7.75%).
High frequency data (3.12-3.18): cement: po42 this week 5. The average price of cement is 511 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 0.60%; The storage capacity ratio was 58.88% and the chain ratio was -1.75pct. Glass: the spot price of glass this week was 2237 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of – 3.74%; The inventory was 57.83 million boxes, a month on month increase of + 4.55%. The average price of 3.2mm photovoltaic glass was 26 yuan / m2, unchanged month on month; The average price of 2mm photovoltaic glass is 20.00 yuan / m2, which is the same month on month; Glass fiber: the price of winding direct yarn this week was 6450 yuan / ton, unchanged month on month; The price of G75 electronic yarn was 10000 yuan / ton, unchanged month on month.
Investment suggestions:
Building materials sector: in the direction of periodic products, float is the best at this stage (it is suggested to pay attention to: Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , Shandong Jinjing Science And Technology Stock Co.Ltd(600586) etc.); , , and ; The purchasing point of consumer building materials is approaching (attention is recommended: Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) ); New material direction, continue to recommend Luyang Energy-Saving Materials Co.Ltd(002088) , Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) .
Construction sector: optimistic about the equipment operating lease sector (it is recommended to pay attention to: Zhejiang Huatie Emergency Equipment Science & Technology Co.Ltd(603300) , Jiangxi Geto New Materials Corporation Limited(300986) etc.); Revaluation of sector value brought by public offering REITs of infrastructure construction (it is suggested to pay attention to: China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) , China Railway Group Limited(601390) and other central enterprises); Optimistic about the trend of affordable housing and the investment opportunities of prefabricated buildings (it is recommended to pay attention to: Shenzhen Capol International&Associatesco.Ltd(002949) , Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) , Zhejiang Yasha Decoration Co.Ltd(002375) , etc.); Some undervalued local state-owned enterprises also have good allocation value (recommended attention: Shandong Hi-Speed Road&Bridge Co.Ltd(000498) , Shaanxi Construction Engineering Group Corporation Limited(600248) , Henan Provincial Communications Planning & Design Institute Co.Ltd(300732) , etc.); Be optimistic about the development trend of green building industry and pay attention to the thematic opportunities of building energy conservation.
Preferred combination: Zhejiang Huatie Emergency Equipment Science & Technology Co.Ltd(603300) (15xpe, optimistic about the equipment rental track), China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) (0.5xpb, revaluation of the value of existing operating assets), China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) (0.5xpb, optimistic about the improvement of real estate business against the trend), Luyang Energy-Saving Materials Co.Ltd(002088) (13xpe, the volume and price of ceramic fiber leaders rise together under the trend of emission reduction), Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) (8xpe, performance elasticity of float glass and valuation elasticity brought by photovoltaic glass) Triumph Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600552) (24xpe, UTG, new electronic material value discovery). Note: the valuations are the 22-year forecast data of Everbright Building Materials team.
Risk analysis: infrastructure investment is less than expected; Real estate investment fell sharply; Rising raw fuel prices; The epidemic situation is repeated.
