Steel industry: the epidemic has disturbed demand in the short term, and the steel supply rigidity is obvious
Steel prices fell slightly. As of March 17, thread, hot coil, medium and heavy sector, cold rolling, wire rod and welded pipe reported 4909 yuan / ton, 5207 yuan / ton, 5219 yuan / ton, 5690 yuan / ton, 5192 yuan / ton and 5387 yuan / ton respectively this week. The weekly chain ratio decreased by 2.48%, 2.36%, 1.73%, 1.57%, 2.22% and 1.46% respectively.
In terms of social inventory, on March 18, the social inventory was 172324 million tons, down 359700 tons on a weekly basis. The factories and warehouses of key enterprises were 6.211 million tons, up 286900 tons.
Gross profit per ton of steel increased slightly. The gross profit per ton of steel for thread, hot coil, medium and heavy sector, cold rolling, wire rod and welded pipe was 649 yuan, 947 yuan, 859 yuan, 780 yuan, 932 yuan and 827 yuan respectively, a slight increase of 4 yuan, 3 yuan, 37 yuan, 742 yuan, 11 yuan and 49 yuan compared with last week.
In the short term, at present, the output of ten day crude steel in March is lower than that in late February, and the supply is still limited in the stage of production restriction. However, the national epidemic broke out at many points, and the downstream demand recovered slowly. However, from the perspective of the whole year, steady growth will continue to bring demand for steel, and the demand suppressed by the epidemic in the short term is expected to accelerate the release after the gradual recovery of the epidemic.
As the main focus of stabilizing the economy, in the field of infrastructure construction, water conservancy and municipal pipe network have been clearly reflected at the policy level. It is expected that with the end of the two sessions and the centralized bid opening and construction in various places, the pipeline demand is expected to be released in large quantities. Therefore, we believe that under the background of “stabilizing the economy”, the pipeline industry is expected to accelerate the release of demand again with certainty. It is strongly recommended to pay attention to the relevant targets of the pipeline industry under the stable economy.
For high-grade non oriented silicon steel, the government work report said that it would continue to support the consumption of new energy vehicles, and the demand for non oriented silicon steel for new energy vehicles is expected to continue to maintain high growth. The supply side release is limited, and the profit of high-end silicon steel is expected to continue to break out this year. Attach importance to enterprises with high grade non oriented silicon steel production capacity. In addition, the motor energy efficiency upgrading plan (20212023) is released. The improvement of motor energy efficiency standards will bring a lot of demand for high-grade non oriented silicon steel. It is suggested to pay attention to the main targets of electrical steel: Beijing Shougang Co.Ltd(000959) , Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Shanxi Taigang Stainless Steel Co.Ltd(000825) , Xinyu Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600782) , Maanshan Iron & Steel Company Limited(600808) .
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Key special steel companies: Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) , Citic Pacific Special Steel Group Co.Ltd(000708) , Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) , Jiangsu Toland Alloy Co.Ltd(300855) , Zhejiang Jiuli Hi-Tech Metals Co.Ltd(002318) .
Building materials companies: Fangda Special Steel Technology Co.Ltd(600507) , Sansteel Minguang Co.Ltd.Fujian(002110) , Sgis Songshan Co.Ltd(000717) .
Municipal pipeline material company: Xinxing Ductile Iron Pipes Co.Ltd(000778) , Zhejiang Kingland Pipeline And Technologies Co.Ltd(002443) , Tianjin You Fa Steel Pipe Group Stock Co.Ltd(601686) , Ningxia Qinglong Pipes Industry Group Co.Ltd(002457) .
Smart pipe network: Zhengyuan Geomatics Group Co.Ltd(688509) .
Nonferrous Industry: continue to be optimistic about the valuation and repair market of rare earth and lithium sector, and the spot price is expected to remain high
In the lithium sector, spodumene quoted us $2790 / ton this week, up 1.82%; Lithium hydroxide quoted 489500 yuan / ton, up 1.87%; The quotation of battery grade lithium carbonate was 503000 yuan / ton, up 0.20%. In rare earth sector, praseodymium and neodymium oxide, dysprosium oxide and terbium oxide were quoted at 1.023 million yuan / ton, 2.94 million yuan / ton and 14.27 million yuan / ton this week, up – 3.94%, – 3.92% and – 4.23% respectively. Considering the tight spot supply of raw materials in the upstream of new energy and the continuous low inventory of the industrial chain, we expect the prices of lithium and rare earth to fluctuate at a high level.
In the magnetic materials sector, the introduction of energy-saving motor policy under the guidance of double carbon and the pull of magnetic materials under the rapid development of new energy, wind power and photovoltaic energy storage in the future, we are optimistic about the pull of rare earth permanent magnet materials under the trend of high-efficiency, energy-saving and miniaturization of motors, and the demand of new high-efficiency soft magnetic materials silicon steel and metal soft magnetic powder cores in the new energy era.
In terms of industrial metals, SHFE copper prices rose 0.94% this week to close at 72830 yuan / ton; SHFE aluminum price rose 3.61% to close at 22830 yuan / ton. Abroad, the situation in Russia and Ukraine eased, the Fed raised interest rates by 25 BP, which was in line with expectations, the boots landed, and the market risk appetite was suppressed first and then increased. In China, the financial stability and Development Commission of the State Council held a meeting, which proposed monetary policy response and credit growth to boost market confidence.
In terms of copper, the short-term interest rate hike has brought action to the copper price, but the macro liquidity contraction is the general direction and suppresses the copper price in the medium term. From a fundamental point of view, the peak demand season in March has come, and the copper inventory in the previous period began to drop seasonally, which has formed a certain support for the copper price. At the same time, China’s poor reality may indicate a more proactive steady growth policy.
In terms of aluminum, Australian Prime Minister Morrison announced an immediate ban on the export of alumina and bauxite to Russia as additional sanctions against Moscow. Aluminum is one of Russia’s important exports. Morrison said: “Russia relies on Australia for nearly 20% of its demand for alumina. The ban will limit Russia’s ability to produce aluminum.” As we mentioned earlier, although the war conflict is easing, the sanctions against Russia are being implemented to the letter, and the supply chain interference caused by the sanctions continues. This week, China’s electrolytic aluminum social inventory went to 1089000 tons, down 53000 tons compared with last week, and downstream construction accelerated. This week, the average profit of China’s simulated electrolytic aluminum industry was 4837 yuan / ton, and the sustainability of the profit of electrolytic aluminum exceeded market expectations.
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\u3000\u3 Jointo Energy Investment Co.Ltd.Hebei(000600) 111 Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) Shenghe Resources Holding Co.Ltd(600392) Rising Nonferrous Metals Share Co.Ltd(600259) China Minmetals Rare Earth Co.Ltd(000831) Poco Holding Co.Ltd(300811) Hengdian Group Dmegc Magnetics Co.Ltd(002056) Ningbo Jintian Copper (Group) Co.Ltd(601609) Zhejiang Hailiang Co.Ltd(002203) Guangdonghectechnologyholdingco.Ltd(600673) Kbc Corporation Ltd(688598) Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) Western Mining Co.Ltd(601168) 6016 China High-Speed Railway Technology Co.Ltd(000008) 07 Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) 。
Risk tips: the risk of sharp fluctuation in the price of raw materials in the upstream, the risk of lower than expected demand in the downstream, and the risk of continuous spread of overseas epidemic.
