Weekly market review (202203.14202203.18): this week, the pharmaceutical sector fell – 0.20%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 4.32 percentage points, and the PE (TTM) of the pharmaceutical sector was about 28.39 times, still at a historical low in recent ten years. On Thursday evening, the medicines patent pool (MPP) officially granted the imitation right of paxlovid, an oral anti covid-19 virus drug, to 35 pharmaceutical companies around the world. Including five Chinese pharmaceutical enterprises, namely Apeloa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000739) , Desano, Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co.Ltd(600196) , Zhe Jiang Hua Hai Pharmaceuticalco.Ltd(600521) , Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603456) . This week, we will focus on the space calculation of covid-19 MPP market and the production capacity launch progress of relevant enterprises.
Pfizer paxlovid’s MPP market potential is considerable. We assume that the total population of MPP market is 3.5 billion, and under the condition of 20% penetration, the world needs 700 million courses of treatment. We assume that the gross profit is 2 yuan / tablet, and the total gross profit of MPP is about 14 billion yuan. Paxlovid is used as a treatment course of five days, two tablets a day, and a treatment course requires 3G naimatavir API. According to the above calculation, under neutral conditions, the global MPP market needs 700 million doses of treatment course, corresponding to a total API demand of 210 tons. The synthetic route of nimatovir in paxlovid is relatively complex, mainly including two core intermediates: sm21 and SM2. SM1 needs glutamine analogues, bromoacetonitrile and sodium borohydride, while SM2 needs carbonic acid and chiral resolution enzyme. Due to the conditions of cryogenic reaction and chiral resolution, the synthesis barrier is high, so Chinese api and intermediate manufacturers are expected to benefit significantly.
At present, many Chinese enterprises have announced paxlovid intermediate or API related capacity construction or technological transformation, which is expected to bring considerable performance flexibility. Among them, companies such as the contribution, Lepu Medical Technology (Beijing) Co.Ltd(300003) EIA passed and supply will start. All enterprises are progressing smoothly, Nanjing Hicin Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300584) , Ningbo Menovo Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603538) etc. are new production capacity, It is expected to contribute performance in the second half of this year.
Recommended portfolio of stocks this week: 1) Growth Portfolio: Pharmablock Sciences (Nanjing) Inc(300725) , kingship biotechnology, Focused Photonics (Hangzhou) Inc(300203) ; 2) Robust combination: Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603456) , Apeloa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000739) , China Resources Sanjiu Medical & Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000999) ; 3) Elastic combination: Great Chinasoft Technology Co.Ltd(002453) , Baicheng pharmaceutical, Lepu Medical Technology (Beijing) Co.Ltd(300003)
Investment suggestion: the huge global MPP market will bring large volume opportunities to relevant authorized pharmaceutical enterprises and upstream suppliers. It is recommended to pay attention to Great Chinasoft Technology Co.Ltd(002453) , Zhe Jiang Hua Hai Pharmaceuticalco.Ltd(600521) , Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603456) , Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) , Shandong Jincheng Pharmaceutical Group Co.Ltd(300233) , Lepu Medical Technology (Beijing) Co.Ltd(300003) , Apeloa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000739) , etc. In addition, with the commercialization of paxlovid in China, it is suggested to pay attention to Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , Asymchem Laboratories (Tianjin) Co.Ltd(002821) , Porton Pharma Solutions Ltd(300363) .
Risk warning: covid-19 virus mutation risk; The demand for diagnosis and treatment in China recovered less than expected; The quantity and Price Bureau deteriorated.
