In the first two months of 2022, the business volume of the industry maintained a high growth rate. From January to February 2022, the business volume of national express service enterprises reached 15.69 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.6%; Business income totaled 157.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.8%. From January to February 2022, the overall unit price of express business was 10.04 yuan / piece, a year-on-year decrease of 4.9% and a month on month increase of 12.1%. From January to February 2022, the CR8 index of express industry was 85.3, with a year-on-year increase of 5.4. Due to the relative shortage of express supply during the Spring Festival, the express industry continued the practice of high unit price in January and February 2022, and the single ticket income increased significantly compared with December 21. However, due to the continuous efforts of Tongda department to “not close during the Spring Festival”, after the release of supply, the average single ticket income from January to February 2022 decreased by 4.9% year-on-year. The industry CR8 (cumulative) index in January and February 2022 was 81.9 and 85.3 respectively, higher than the level in the same period of 21 years and lower than the level in the same period of 2020, which reflects the accelerated release of Tongda’s production capacity during the Spring Festival this year.
From January to February 2022, the average single ticket revenue of express business in Jinhua (Yiwu) and Guangzhou maintained growth. From January to February 2022, the average single ticket income of express business in Zhejiang Province was about 5.77 yuan, an increase of 0.17 yuan compared with December 21, and the average single ticket income of express business in Jinhua (Yiwu) region was about 3.24 yuan, an increase of 0.15 yuan compared with December 21; The average single ticket income of express business in Guangdong Province was about 7.95 yuan, an increase of 0.37 yuan over December 21, and the average single ticket income of express business in Guangzhou was about 7.49 yuan, an increase of 0.81 yuan over December 21.
From January to February 2022, the proportion of physical online shopping agencies decreased from zero to December 21. From January to February 2022, the total amount of social zero in China increased by 6.7% year-on-year, an increase of 5.0 PCT compared with the growth rate in December 21; The online retail sales of physical goods increased by 13.6% year-on-year, an increase of 11.7 PCT compared with the growth rate in December 21; The proportion of physical online shopping cooperatives (online retail sales of physical goods / total national social retail sales) was 22.0%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.33pct. On the whole, the zero growth rate of physical online shopping agencies rebounded significantly from January to February 2022, higher than the monthly growth rate in the fourth quarter of 21; From January to February of 2022, although the proportion of physical online shopping agencies increased year-on-year, it still decreased by 2.2pct compared with December of 21; In the first two months of 2022, the business volume of national express service enterprises increased by 19.6% year-on-year, significantly lower than the average level of 21 years. This year, the business volume of the whole express industry may decline year-on-year under the background of relatively high base number.
From January to February 2022, Tongda express company increased both in volume and price. From January to February 2022, the business volume growth of SF, Yunda, Yuantong and Shentong in a single month was 2.0%, 30.7%, 27.8% and 39.0% respectively; From January to February 2022, the average monthly single ticket income of SF, Yunda, Yuantong and Shentong was 16.67 yuan, 2.50 yuan, 2.70 yuan and 2.59 yuan respectively, an increase of 0.24 yuan, 0.14 yuan, 0.2 yuan and 0.15 yuan respectively compared with December 21, and a year-on-year increase of 0.80 yuan, 0.29 yuan, 0.26 yuan and 0.01 yuan respectively. On the whole, during the Spring Festival, the supply and demand of the express market are booming. The Tongda express company continues to release its production capacity “not closing for the Spring Festival”. On the basis of the increase of single ticket income, the market share of key companies has also increased year-on-year. Based on the comprehensive factors of volume and price, from January to February 2022, the growth rates of Shunfeng, Yunda, Yuantong and Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) business income were 7.2%, 47.8%, 41.1% and 39.7% respectively, with a change of – 1.6, + 23.0, + 21.2 and + 14.4pct compared with December 21.
Investment suggestion: Tongda continues to release production capacity in the “Spring Festival does not close”, and the business growth and single ticket income in the first two months of 22 years have increased significantly compared with December of 21 years; The regulations of Zhejiang Province on the promotion of express industry will come into force on March 1, 2022. The price war in the industry will slow down or will continue to be verified, promoting the profit recovery of express companies. Under this background, head express enterprises will obviously benefit. We maintain the “overweight” rating of the industry, recommend S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) , Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) and Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , and suggest paying attention to China Express (H) and Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) .
Risk analysis: the macroeconomic downturn leads to the decline of express demand; The growth of e-commerce was lower than the market expectation, resulting in a decline in the growth rate of express demand; The penetration rate of online shopping increased slowly; The competition in the express industry exceeded expectations, resulting in a sharp decline in single ticket revenue.
