This week’s view: this week, many departments spoke to maintain stability and boost sentiment. The real estate sector rose 1.98% in a single week, leading 31 Shenwan industries. From the perspective of fundamentals, the turnover of new houses decreased by 15.4% and that of second-hand houses decreased by 8.8% month on month this week; Fuzhou and Hefei completed the first batch of centralized land auction in 2022, and the bidding real estate enterprises only showed high enthusiasm for high-quality plots in high-quality areas. The short-term epidemic situation repeats or aggravates the sales pressure, and the investment attitude of real estate enterprises is expected to remain cautious. Overall, the pressure on the development of the real estate industry remains unabated, there is still room for improvement on the policy side, and the sector valuation is expected to continue to repair. In the medium and long term, with the withdrawal or contraction of some real estate enterprises in the painful period of this round, the overall pattern of the industry is expected to be optimized, and the market share and profitability of brand real estate enterprises with financing and control advantages are expected to be improved. The development sector pays attention to the leading real estate enterprises Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) and other leading real estate enterprises with strong short-term pressure resistance and prominent medium and long-term competitive advantages, and moderately pays attention to the elastic second-line targets, such as Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) . In terms of diversified business, the current valuation of the property management sector has reached an all-time low, and the cost performance is prominent. With the continuous deregulation of policies and the improvement of the capital side of development enterprises, it is also expected to bring high-quality property management valuation repair, focusing on such services as Country Garden Service, poly property, xinchengyue service, Jinke service, Xingsheng business, etc.
Policy environment monitoring: 1) multiple departments make concerted efforts to “stabilize real estate”; 2) The first batch of centralized land supply in Fuzhou and Hefei in 2022 will be hot and cold.
Market operation monitoring: 1) the transaction fell month on month, and the follow-up will still be under pressure. This week (March 12-march 18), 27000 new houses were sold, with a month on month decrease of 15.4%; 13000 second-hand houses were sold, down 8.8% month on month. In March, the average daily turnover of new houses decreased by 47.3% year-on-year, an increase of 17.6pct compared with February. Affected by repeated outbreaks and cautious supply and demand in the short term, subsequent transactions will still be under pressure. 2) The proportion of improved demand increased month on month. In the transaction of commercial houses in 32 cities in February 2022, the number of units above 90 square meters increased by 1.7pct to 77.1% month on month. 3) Inventories rebounded month on month and tended to decline in the short term. The inventory of evidence collection in 16 cities was 101 million square meters, up 0.5% month on month. Under the pressure of capital and property market, real estate enterprises tend to de convert the existing inventory, and the short-term inventory scale may decline steadily. 4) The land transaction and premium rate declined, and the proportion of the first and second tier increased. Last week, the land supply and construction area of Baicheng was 28.016 million square meters and the transaction construction area was 14.045 million square meters, with a month on month decrease of 10.1% and 50.4%; The transaction premium rate was 1.6%, down 1.3pct month on month. Among them, the first, second and third tier transactions accounted for 4.3%, 37.5% and 58.2% respectively, with a month on month increase of 2.3pct, an increase of 9pct and a decrease of 11.2pct respectively.
Capital market monitoring: 1) real estate bonds: 10.79 billion yuan of domestic real estate bonds were issued this week, an increase of 3.95 billion yuan month on month; Offshore foreign debt issuance; The issuance interest rate of key real estate enterprises is 2.4% – 5.32%, and the comparable issuance interest rate is different from that of the previous time. 2) Trust: collective trust issued 2.31 billion yuan this week, a decrease of 1.02 billion yuan month on month. 3) Real estate stocks: the real estate sector rose 1.98% this week, outperforming Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 (- 0.94%); At present, the PE (TTM) of the real estate sector is 8.04 times, and the valuation is at the quantile of 12.15% in recent five years. The top three net capital inflows from Shanghai, Shenzhen and Hong Kong stocks to the north this week were Shanghai Wanye Enterprises Co.Ltd(600641) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) ; The top three net capital inflows to the south are rongchuang China, rongchuang services and Vanke enterprises.
Risk tips: 1) supply adequacy reduces risk; 2) Performance pressure risk of real estate enterprises; 3) Policy care is less than expected risk.
