Focus this week: Tiandi Science & Technology Co.Ltd(600582) , Qingdao Hiron Commercial Cold Chain Co.Ltd(603187) , Jiangsu Shentong Valve Co.Ltd(002438) , Jiangsu Guomao Reducer Co.Ltd(603915)
Core view of this week: recent macro environment fluctuations have a great impact on the stock price of the equipment industry. We believe that the short-term impact has not been eliminated, and the overall judgment continues to fluctuate. At present, the price rise of upstream resource products and the steady growth of the government are still two relatively determined main lines, and the relevant equipment sectors such as coal machinery, oil service, nuclear power and hydrogen energy are expected to benefit.
This week's theme: analysis of the procyclical sector of the machinery industry
Pro cycle, what cycle is pro cycle? There are some differences in the definition of "Pro cyclical" between the total amount and the research of different industries. For our machinery industry, we are most concerned about the prosperity of the manufacturing industry in the short cycle, that is, the kichin cycle (inventory cycle). Generally speaking, the operation of equipment enterprises performs well in the stage of passive inventory removal and active inventory replenishment. This paper will focus on the position of mechanical equipment, especially general equipment, in this round of kichin cycle, so as to provide reference for grasping the time point of general equipment investment.
At present, it is in the passive inventory replenishment stage of the kichin cycle. It is optimistic that it is expected to enter the passive inventory removal stage after the second quarter. Since 2021m5, due to the increase of raw material prices, the rise of global shipping prices, the repeated epidemic outside China and other aspects, the sales and production ends of the manufacturing industry have been affected, the inventory is gradually overstocked, and the prosperity of the industry has been affected. It belongs to the passive inventory replenishment stage, which has lasted for 10 months.
General equipment's share price began to perform at the end of the passive replenishment stage. Taking e company, a typical general equipment company, as an example, we analyze the impact of kichin cycle on the revenue, profit and stock price of enterprises in the machinery industry. From the revenue side and profit side, the impact of inventory on the revenue side and profit side of company E is more obvious in the previous rounds of kichin cycle (20132016), and the impact of the cycle on revenue and profit lags behind. From the law of the company's share price, the start of each round of market is at the end of the passive replenishment stage of the inventory cycle, and then the kichin cycle enters the destocking stage, and the company's share price rises.
From January to February, PMI index and other indicators improved more than expected. If they continue, they are expected to enter a new stage of the cycle. According to the latest data of the National Bureau of statistics, China's fixed asset investment, PMI, industrial added value and other major economic data increased by different ranges from January to February 2022. The manufacturing investment increased by 20.9% year-on-year from January to February, an increase of 7.4pct over the whole year of last year, realizing a V-shaped reversal, showing a trend of improving the industry outlook. The PMI index has shown a growth trend again since November 2021. By February, it exceeded the 50 boom and bust line, the manufacturing industry entered the recovery stage, and the prosperity continued to improve. Among them, the PMI new order index was 50.7 in February, which was higher than the dry and prosperous line for the first time since August 2021. In February, the added value of industries above designated size increased by 12.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate increased by 8.94 PCT month on month, with a large increase. If the data of subsequent months continues to improve, it is expected to enter the stage of passive destocking.
The automobile manufacturing industry is in the active inventory removal period, the real estate and infrastructure industry is in the passive inventory replenishment period, and the railway transportation industry is in the late stage of the passive inventory replenishment period. The prosperity of relevant equipment is expected to rise. From the perspective of downstream industries, automobile manufacturing, real estate development, infrastructure construction, railway transportation and other downstream industries are affected by the inventory cycle to varying degrees, which is more obvious after the outbreak of the epidemic. Among them, the automobile manufacturing industry is in the active stock removal period, the real estate and infrastructure industry is in the passive stock replenishment period, and the railway transportation industry is in the late stage of the passive stock replenishment period. Although photovoltaic equipment and oil service equipment have convergence in some stages of the cycle, they are not completely affected by the kichin cycle, and the prosperity of the industry is expected to be further improved.
Investment advice: it is recommended to pay attention to yourself α Strong general equipment enterprises, such as Jiangsu Guomao Reducer Co.Ltd(603915) , Estun Automation Co.Ltd(002747) , Oke Precision Cutting Tools Co.Ltd(688308) , Zhuzhou Huarui Precision Cutting Tools.Co.Ltd(688059) , Ningbo Haitian Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(601882) , Guangdong Yizumi Precision Machinery Co.Ltd(300415) , Sany Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(600031) , etc.
Risk tip: macroeconomic fluctuations and intensified market competition.
