Education industry
China’s education index rose or fell by + 5.58% this week. Stocks with large gains and losses were: one education technology (+ 57.50%), gaotu group (+ 45.45%), tal (+ 42.79%), New Oriental (+ 25.49%), Chengdu Jafaantai Education Technology Co.Ltd(300559) (+ 22.13%) and Guangzheng Education (- 10.17%).
Viewpoint: 1) benefiting from the rebound of Chinese concept stocks and good performance this week, some Chinese concept stocks in education have increased significantly, but on the whole, the education industry still maintains a cautious attitude. The opportunities mainly come from the level of individual stocks, mainly due to the reversal of difficulties caused by transformation. 2) It is recommended to pay attention to New Oriental online. K9 discipline business was stripped off on December 31, 2021, and the negative factors were cleared. We believe that the company’s resources are expected to tilt towards university adult business and achieve strong growth. In addition, the company is actively transforming to institutions and live broadcasting. The process of new business from 0 to 1 is worthy of attention. The bottom logic is that the brand, human and material resources of New Oriental and Yu Minhong are still strong. 3) In view of the recent multi-point outbreak of the epidemic and the restart of online teaching methods in Shanghai and other places, online education related stocks are expected to usher in thematic opportunities.
Wine travel catering
This week, the hotel catering and leisure (Changjiang) / Consumer Service HK (CITIC) index rose or fell by – 1.76% / + 9.46%. Stocks with large gains and losses were: Guangzhou Lingnan Group Holdings Company Limited(000524) (+ 35.11%), Zhejiang Ssaw Boutique Hotels Co.Ltd(301073) (+ 20.48%), same trip (+ 19.18%), Xi’An Qujiang Cultural Tourism Co.Ltd(600706) (+ 13.26%), meituan-w (+ 13.22%), Guangzhou Restaurant Group Company Limited(603043) (- 5.64%).
Viewpoint: 1) in the short term, the local epidemic broke out in many places, the epidemic prevention policy continued to be “dynamically cleared”, and the travel was limited, which greatly affected the catering and drinking travel industry. 2) In addition, some Chinese enterprises listed in the United States and Hong Kong at the same time were significantly affected by the “delisting of China concept shares”; Hong Kong stocks and A-Shares fluctuated sharply, driving the catering, wine and tourism sector to fluctuate greatly this week. 3) In the medium and long term, with the increase of vaccination rate and the listing of covid-19 specific drugs, and the gradual relaxation of entry-exit restrictions in some overseas countries and regions, the industry is expected to recover.
Beauty care
This week, the beauty care (Shenwan) index rose or fell by – 2.92% in total, and the stocks with larger increases were: Aoyuan Beauty Valley Technology Co.Ltd(000615) (+ 3.30%), Nanjing Cosmos Chemical Co.Ltd(300856) (+ 3.27%), Shanghai Jahwa United Co.Ltd(600315) (+ 0.95%); 35.
Viewpoint: under the influence of multiple factors such as the overall weakness of consumption, the repeated impact of the epidemic on cosmetics consumption and the strengthening of supervision of cosmetics related industries, the growth rate of cosmetics market is slightly weaker than that before the epidemic, but there are structural opportunities: 1) the growth of high-end cosmetics and efficacy skin care products is stronger than that of the market; 2) The market share of brands and enterprises with strong product strength and strong R & D strength is expected to continue to increase.
Individual stock view
Focus Media Information Technology Co.Ltd(002027) , up or down – 6.63% this week. Viewpoint: 1) according to the expectation of the company’s third quarterly report, the annual performance is expected to be more than 6 billion, and the performance is relatively stable. 2021 is a “small year” for the industry and the company’s business (the original customers in education and other industries are damaged), and 2022 is expected to cross the industry cycle (price rise is determined & driven by consumer goods, and the company’s business performance is expected to be significantly better than other media channels); 2) Focus’s business model and demand trend are still strong. We firmly believe that the future of consumer brands is the future of focus and continue to firmly recommend. The PE valuation in 2022 is less than 20 times and maintain “strong recommendation”.
The same hunting employment increased or decreased by – 1.75% this week. Viewpoint: 1) the long-term growth rate of revenue is 20% +, 40% + for four consecutive quarters, and CAGR is 30% in the next three years; 2) Robust hrsaas model, 2b renewal rate of 80% +, Ka renewal rate of 90% +; 3) At present, the commercialization rate is only about 7%. It is estimated that there will be 1 million registered enterprises and 70000 paying enterprises in 2021; 4) In 2020, the ARPU of b-end was 31300 yuan, and the CAGR (20172020) was 16.1%, which continued to grow. Maintain “recommended”.
New Oriental online, up or down – 1.71% this week. Viewpoint: 1) negative clearing of policy & business operation; 2) University adult business is expected to rebound strongly; 3) Both institutional business and live delivery are new businesses from 0 to 1; 4) New Oriental’s human and material resources are still strong, the group’s book cash exceeds 30 billion, and the core talent team led by Yu Minhong is still growing. New Oriental online, which is listed in Hong Kong stocks, has undertaken many strategic transformation directions of the group. It is suggested to actively focus on transformation opportunities.
Ctrip group-s, up or down + 3.84% this week. Viewpoint: 1) the short-term impact of the epidemic is obvious, China’s tourism and business travel are blocked, and the market of the whole tourism and hotel industry is depressed; 2) Recently, there has been continuous delisting of zhonggai shares, and the company’s share price is expected to fluctuate greatly; 3) In the medium and long term, the epidemic will eventually pass. As an industry leader, Ctrip has no essential business model damage. Traveling abroad is still Ctrip’s biggest long-term logic. OTA leader & Chinese people’s heavy service demand has extremely high barriers. It is suggested to actively pay attention to the opportunities after the oversold.
Huazhu group-s, up or down + 8.19% this week. 1) repeated epidemic situation data: short-term fluctuation; 2) Recently, there has been continuous delisting of zhonggai shares, and the company’s share price is expected to fluctuate greatly; 3) However, in the post epidemic era, the expectation of business recovery of the wine and tourism industry is strong, and the leader deserves more attention; We are optimistic about the chain and concentration trend of hotel leaders, and suggest to actively pay attention to the opportunities after oversold.
Risk tips: 1) policy changes; 2) Repeated outbreaks; 3) Impact of emergencies, etc.
