Many ministries and commissions have spoken to prevent and resolve real estate risks, and it is expected that the follow-up policies will continue to be relaxed. On March 16, the special meeting of the financial stability and Development Committee of the State Council pointed out that “with regard to real estate enterprises, it is necessary to timely study and put forward strong and effective solutions to prevent and resolve risks, and put forward supporting measures for the transformation to a new development model”. After that, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the central bank, the Ministry of Finance and the State Administration of foreign exchange said that they would actively cooperate with relevant departments to effectively resolve the risks of real estate enterprises. In addition, the national development and Reform Commission said that cities with a permanent resident population of less than 3 million in the urban area have implemented the policy of comprehensively canceling the restrictions on settlement. We expect that the follow-up real estate policy will continue to relax and intensify. The foothold of the first policy may be the monetary end (in terms of new loans) and local policies (such as the relaxation of purchase and loan restrictions in Zhengzhou and the re mention of monetized resettlement). New citizens are expected to enjoy special credit policies, because the city’s policies are expected to open the space for purchase and loan restrictions in a disguised form.
Market review: the increase is in the front stage, 2.94 percentage points ahead of the market. This week, the cumulative change range of CITIC Real Estate Index was 2.0%, 2.94 percentage points ahead of the market, ranking first among the 29 CITIC industry sectors. A total of 77 stocks rose this week, an increase of 56 over last week and 62 stocks fell. (this week in the report refers to the week from March 12 to March 18).
Transaction of new houses: the transaction area of new houses in 32 cities this week was 2.442 million square meters, down 7.4% month on month and 52.7% year on year. Among them, the transaction area of new houses in sample first tier cities was 454000 square meters, down – 9.6% month on month and – 50.0% year on year; The sample of second tier cities is 1291000 m3, with a month on month ratio of – 12.5% and a year-on-year ratio of – 50.3%; The third tier cities in the sample were 697000 m3, with a month on month ratio of 5.9% and a year-on-year ratio of – 57.9%.
Transaction of second-hand houses: the transaction area of second-hand houses in the 12 key cities we tracked this week totaled 1012000 square meters, a month on month decrease of 7.8% and a year-on-year decrease of 42.4%. Among them, the transaction area of second-hand houses in the sample first tier cities this week was 319000 square meters, a month on month increase of – 7.2%; The sample of second tier cities is 567000 m3, with a month on month ratio of – 10.7%; The third tier cities in the sample are 126000 square meters, with a month on month ratio of 5.9%. Since the beginning of the year, the cumulative transaction area of second-hand houses has been 9.905 million square meters, with a year-on-year change of – 36.5%; Among them, the cumulative transaction area of second-hand houses in the sample first tier cities was 2.934 million m3, a year-on-year increase of – 42.3%; The sample of second tier cities was 5.697 million m3, with a year-on-year increase of – 30.8%; The sample third tier cities were 1273000 m3, a year-on-year increase of – 30.8%.
Domestic credit bonds of key companies: the issuance of bonds by real estate enterprises continued to recover. According to the statistics of Shenwan industry real estate index, 17 real estate enterprise credit bonds were issued this week (March 14-march 20), with a month on month increase; The total issuance scale is 16.170 billion yuan, the total repayment is 11.889 billion yuan, and the net financing amount is 4.281 billion yuan China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) (- 44bp), CCCC real estate (- 36bp), Xiamen Special Economic Zone Real Estate (- 12bp) and Zhongsheng investment (- 10bp) have lower bond interest rates than the comparable bonds of the same type and period previously issued by the company.
Investment suggestions: many ministries and commissions have issued a voice to prevent and resolve real estate risks, the direction of policy easing is clear, and maintain the “overweight” rating of the real estate development sector. We believe that this year is a large-scale policy easing cycle, which is a beta market. “Continued favorable policies – the bottom of industry fundamentals is expected to rise later – state-owned enterprises and high-quality private enterprises resume land acquisition and restore the gross profit margin of land acquisition” is the main logic of 2022, which will achieve three-level resonance upward in fundamentals, industries and enterprises in the later stage. Real estate enterprises with good credit qualification, sufficient liquidity, sufficient soil reserves and high quality are the main choice. It is suggested to pay attention to: A shares Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) , Gemdale Corporation(600383) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Huafa Industrial Co.Ltd.Zhuhai(600325) , Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) ; H-share China overseas development, green city China, China Resources Land, Longhu group, China Jinmao, Xuhui holding group, China Overseas Hongyang. Property management: Country Garden service, China Resources Vientiane, green city service, poly property, Yongsheng life service, Jinke service, China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) .
Risk tip: the speed of policy introduction and implementation are lower than expected, and the fundamentals continue to decline, causing a chain reaction. The repeated impact of the epidemic exceeded expectations.
