One week resumption:
This week, power equipment and new energy (CITIC level I) fell 1.44%, 0.50 percentage points behind the market. In terms of overall market performance, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.77%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 fell 0.94%, and the gem index rose 1.81%. Among the sub sectors of power equipment, electrical equipment fell 4.37%, wind power fell 6.39% and photovoltaic fell 2.98%.
Photovoltaic:
1. The price of the industrial chain tends to be stable, and we need to continue to pay attention to the start-up of the project in late March. According to the statistics of the silicon industry branch, the price of silicon material has increased for 9 consecutive weeks, and the highest transaction price of single crystal re feeding has returned to the high level of 250000 yuan / ton; On the other hand, according to the statistics of pvinfolink, the price of silicon wafer has remained stable this week and is accelerating the reduction of silicon wafer thickness to alleviate the cost pressure of rising silicon material price. The price of battery wafer has also remained stable. The price of components is squeezed by the increase of terminal acceptance and supply chain material cost. The delivery price of distributed projects has increased slightly, but the price of centralized projects is stable.
2. In the first two months of 2022, the export scale of Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) battery increased rapidly, and it is optimistic that the prosperity of 2022q2 will continue. According to the statistics of the General Administration of customs, the export value of Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) batteries (including battery chips and components) in China in January / February 2022 was US $3.238/7.322 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 110% / 114%. The cumulative export value in the first two months was US $10.56 billion (year-on-year + 113%), which was basically the same as that in 2021q1 (US $10.58 billion). Looking forward to 2022q2, as the industrial chain price drops after the release of silicon production capacity, the transformation demand of China's large base and overseas new energy is expected to start. We are optimistic that the shipment of 2022q2 industrial chain will maintain a high growth.
3. In terms of investment: (1) the demand boom in 2022q1 is improving, pushing up the prices of products in all links. With the release of upstream capacity in Q2, the prices of the industrial chain are expected to decline, and the end of the interest rate increase cycle in the first stage is superimposed. At the same time, China accelerates the construction of new infrastructure (photovoltaic, etc.), the photovoltaic industrial chain ushers in better allocation opportunities. It is recommended to focus on the leading Jingke energy, Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Tongwei Co.Ltd(600438) . (2) In 2022q1, the price of some auxiliary materials may rise due to the release of demand, the price rise of raw materials, the shortage of structural supply and demand and other factors. Flat Glass Group Co.Ltd(601865) , especially Luoyang Glass Company Limited(600876) . (3) Under the background of industrial chain game, the supply and demand situation of large-scale products is relatively good. 210 product leaders are recommended from bottom to top. At the same time, the semiconductor silicon wafer business has ushered in a high-speed development Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) . (4) Overseas demand and distributed photovoltaic demand will be released first in the process of module price decline, with emphasis on Jinko Power Technology Co.Ltd(601778) , Zhejiang Chint Electrics Co.Ltd(601877) .
Wind power:
1. The bidding price of wind turbines in China continues to decline, and the domestic substitution + Dual sea strategy is the long-term development direction of the wind power industry. Recently, the bidding prices of China's sea breeze and land breeze have continued to decline (in terms of sea breeze, the quotation of Dongfang Electric Corporation Limited(600875) including tower of zheneng Taizhou No. 1 sea breeze project is 3548 yuan / kW; in terms of land breeze, the quotation of prospective energy including tower of China Resources Power UTRA Zhongqi project is as low as 1889 yuan / kW). Under the condition of rapid decline of bidding price, if enterprises want to maintain profitability, they need to open source (sea + offshore wind power) and reduce costs (localization of parts and components); In the context of large-scale and domestic substitution, the process of sea wind parity is expected to accelerate. In the future, if the national level also continues to strengthen the development and approval of projects in sea areas under state control, we believe that the new installed capacity of China's offshore wind power during the 14th five year plan period is expected to exceed expectations.
2. In terms of investment: (1) Haifeng construction is expected to exceed expectations and under the logic of domestic substitution, recommend Ningbo Orient Wires & Cables Co.Ltd(603606) , pay attention to Dajin Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(002487) , Jiangyin Hengrun Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(603985) ; (2) Focus on Zhejiang Xcc Group Co.Ltd;(603667) , Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearings Co.Ltd(300850) ; (3) Under the logic of profit recovery: focus on Riyue Heavy Industry Co.Ltd(603218) , Sany Heavy energy (to be listed).
Risk tips:
The progress of issuing policies is less than expected; The recovery of fan bidding price is lower than expected, and the price of raw materials in the industrial chain fluctuates; The investment and information construction of the State Grid are lower than expected, resulting in the risk of blocking the installation and landing.
