I. core view
Rating and Strategy: the decline of pig price, the expansion of losses in the pig industry, the deregulation or acceleration of production capacity, the reversal logic of pig price during the year is strong, and the “optimistic” rating of the breeding sector is maintained. Geopolitical conflicts may promote the high rise of global food prices and the rise of industry prosperity, and maintain the “optimistic” rating of the planting sector. Combined with the valuation, continue to focus on the recommendation of pig breeding and yellow chicken breeding.
1. Aquaculture industry chain
1) pig industry: maintain the “optimistic” rating, focusing on Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) and Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) . Last week, the average price of pigs in Jiangxi Province was 12.06 yuan / kg, down 0.23 yuan per week; Piglets were 25.13 yuan / kg, up 0.18 yuan per week; Binary sows were 32.6 yuan / kg, down 0.2 yuan per week. The head of self breeding and autotrophic mode lost 547 yuan, thanks to 30 yuan compared with last week. The central reserve has collected and stored frozen pork for three consecutive times, but the total amount is limited, which is difficult to change the relationship between market supply and demand. The pig price continues to be depressed, and the space for further decline may be limited. The rise in grain prices has driven up the cost. Recently, the unit cost of raising pigs may rise by 0.6-1 yuan / kg. The rise in costs combined with the downturn in pig prices has expanded the losses of the pig industry, and the production capacity has been reduced or accelerated. Maintain the judgment on the recent acceleration of capacity removal and the bottom reversal of pig price in the third quarter. In terms of valuation, the market value of individual stocks is below the historical average, with a high margin of safety, maintaining the “optimistic” rating of the sector. Focus on Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) and Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) and pay attention to Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) , Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) , Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) and Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) .
2) yellow chicken industry: maintain the “optimistic” rating and recommend Jiangsu Lihua Animal Husbandry Co.Ltd(300761) . In February, the price of Lihua yellow chicken was 14.16 yuan / kg, down 0.3 yuan / kg per month; Wen’s yellow chicken costs 14.63 yuan / kg, up 0.65 yuan per month. The price of yellow chicken has been above the cost line since the fourth quarter of 2021 and is expected to remain stable in the first half of the year. In the medium and long term, environmental protection constraints and the change of live poultry to ice fresh will accelerate the withdrawal of small and medium-sized production capacity and optimize the competition pattern of the industry. Maintain the “optimistic” rating of the industry, focus on recommending Lihua, and pay attention to Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) and Hunan Xiangjia Animal Husbandry Company Limited(002982) .
3) dynamic insurance: give a good rating, with emphasis on Wuhan Keqian Biology Co.Ltd(688526) . On the eve of the reversal of the pig cycle, the vaccine boom was under short-term pressure. In the medium and long term, the improvement of large-scale breeding level, the upgrading of vaccine technology and the listing of new products will drive the expansion of the animal protection market. At the same time, the new GMP certificate certification, feed prohibition and breeding restriction, as well as the improvement of the biological security level of the breeding industry will promote the reform of the animal protection industry and optimize the competition pattern. PE stocks are currently at the bottom of history, with a high margin of safety in valuation, and are given a positive rating. Stocks with reasonable valuation and R & D advantages are recommended Wuhan Keqian Biology Co.Ltd(688526) .
2. Planting industry chain
1) planting: maintain the “optimistic” rating, and highlight Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation And Development Co.Ltd(601952) . Ensuring food security is the main tone of China’s three rural policies. Under the background of policy care, the planting industry is booming or high for a long time. In the short and medium term, the geopolitical conflict has affected the stability of global grain trade. If the conflict lasts until April to may, it will affect the grain production of major producing countries and the relationship between grain supply and demand in 22 / 23, providing a new driving force for the rise of grain prices. Maintain the “optimistic” rating of the industry and recommend Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation And Development Co.Ltd(601952) 2) seed industry: maintain the “optimistic” rating and focus on Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) and Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) . Policy care, technology upgrading of seed industry, and the listing of genetically modified products is imminent. The commercialization of genetically modified organisms will open up the development space of the seed industry market and promote the optimization of the industry pattern. The leading enterprises have the first mover advantage and are expected to fully benefit and gain more market share. Maintain the “optimistic” rating of the industry and focus on the investment opportunities of corn seed industry. In terms of individual stocks, focus on Shandong Denghai Seeds Co.Ltd(002041) , Yuan Longping High-Tech Agriculture Co.Ltd(000998) , Beijing Dabeinong Technology Group Co.Ltd(002385) .
II. Market Review
The agricultural index was synchronized with the correction of the market. 1. Last week, the Shenwan agricultural index fell 2.11%. Over the same period, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.77%, the Shenzhen composite index fell 0.95%, and the agricultural sector was synchronized with the market correction.
2. Specific to the secondary sub industry, except for the rise of fishery, the indexes of the other seven sub industries fell, of which the decline in the aquaculture sector was small; 3. The top 10 gainers are mainly concentrated in the fishery and aquaculture sector, and the top 10 losers are concentrated in the planting sector. The top three stocks that rose were Oriental Ocean, Fujian Tianma Science And Technology Group Co.Ltd(603668) and Cnfc Overseas Fisheries Co.Ltd(000798) .
III. industry data
Pigs: in the 11th week, the average ex factory price of pigs in Jiangxi Province was 12.06 yuan / kg, with a weekly drop of 0.23 yuan / kg; The average loss of self breeding heads in the main pig producing areas in China was 547.1 yuan. By the end of January 2021, the number of fertile sows in China was 42.9 million, a year-on-year decrease of 3.7%;
Broilers: in the 11th week, the average price of chicken seedlings in Yantai, Shandong Province was 0.84 yuan / feather, with a weekly drop of 0.3 yuan / feather; The average price of white feather meat and wool chicken in front of the shed was 3.87 yuan / kg, unchanged on a weekly basis; In the 11th week, the single feather loss in broiler breeding was 0.56 yuan;
Feed: according to the statistics of Boya Hexun, in the 11th week, the average price of broiler feed was 3.98 yuan / kg, unchanged on a weekly basis; The price of fattening pig feed was 3.75 yuan / kg, with a weekly increase of 0.03 yuan / kg;
Aquatic products: in the 11th week, the sea cucumber in Shandong Weihai bulk wholesale market was 200 yuan / kg, unchanged on a weekly basis; The price of scallops was 8 yuan / kg, unchanged on a week-on-week basis; The price of shrimp was 310 yuan / kg, unchanged on a week-on-week basis; Abalone price was 110 yuan / kg, unchanged on a week-on-week basis;
Sugar, cotton, corn, soybean meal, wheat and rice: in the 11th week, the spot price of Nanning white sugar was 5776 yuan / ton, down 32 yuan / ton; The price of 328 grade cotton in China was 22697 yuan / ton, down 17 yuan / ton per week; The average purchase price of corn in China was 2748 yuan / ton, up 18 yuan / ton per week; The average spot price of soybean meal in China was 4962 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 38 yuan / ton; In the 11th week, the average spot price of wheat in China was 3212 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 13 yuan / ton; The average price of Japonica Rice in China was 2758 yuan / ton, down 4 yuan / ton per week;
IV. risk warning
The price changes of raw materials such as sudden epidemic diseases, livestock and poultry, aquatic products and corn are less than expected
