Liquidity: in February, the growth rate difference of m1m2 converged to -4.5pct month on month. (1) The value of BCI financing environment index in February 2022 was 51.44, a month on month increase of + 6.57%. The high probability of phased high has appeared at the end of September 2020 (54.02). According to historical experience, this is not good for the medium and long term of gem index; (2) There is a strong positive correlation between the growth difference between M1 and M2 and the Shanghai Composite Index: the growth difference between M1 and M2 was – 4.5 percentage points in February 2022, with a month on month increase of + 7.2 percentage points.
Infrastructure and real estate chain: the operating rate of petroleum asphalt fell to an all-time low again. (1) Price changes this week: thread – 0.20%, cement price index + 0.48%, rubber – 1.89%, coke + 5.88%, coking coal + 0.00%, iron ore – 5.22%; (2) The utilization rate of National Petroleum Steel + 10PCT, and the utilization rate of cement + 30pct and – 90pct respectively; (3) From January to February, the cumulative sales area of commercial housing in China was – 9.60% year-on-year, and the cumulative new construction area of real estate in China was – 12.20% year-on-year.
Real estate completion chain: the profits of titanium dioxide and flat glass are at a low level in the same period of nearly three years. (1) The prices of titanium dioxide and glass were + 0.00% and + 0.00% month on month respectively this week; (2) This week, the profit of titanium dioxide was 2550 yuan / ton, a month on month ratio of – 12.51%, and the gross profit of flat glass was 363 yuan / ton, a month on month ratio of + 18.24%; (3) The total completed area of commercial housing in China from January to February was – 9.80% year-on-year.
Industrial chain: the gross profit per ton of cold rolled steel fell to the level of July 2021. (1) The price performance of major bulk commodities this week: the price of cold rolling, copper and aluminum changed by – 1.41%, + 1.51%, + 2.93% month on month, and the corresponding gross profit changed by – 22.35%, + 6.16%, + 14.11%; (2) This week, the operating rate of semi steel tire in China was 69.20%, with a month on month ratio of – 2.80 percentage points; (3) The gross profit of cold rolled steel sector was 284 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of – 22.35%.
Breakdown varieties: copper and aluminum prices and profits rebounded. (1) Graphite electrode: the ultra-high power is 25000 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of + 0.00%, and the comprehensive gross profit is 3954.7 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of – 2.05%; (2) Nickel: the price this week was 222200 yuan / ton, down from – 1.46% last week; (3) Stainless steel: the price this week is 21400 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of – 0.93%; (4) Prebaked anode: the price this week is 6250 yuan / ton, with a month on month ratio of + 5.04%, and the profit is – 733 yuan / ton; (5) The price of electrolytic aluminum is 22520 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 2.93%, and the estimated profit is 4760.4 yuan / ton (excluding tax), a month on month increase of + 14.11%; (6) The price of electrolytic copper is 73310 yuan / ton, a month on month increase of + 1.51%, and the estimated profit is 6959 yuan / ton (excluding tax), a month on month increase of + 6.16%; (7) Thermal coal: the price this week is 940 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of + 0.00%.
Price comparison relationship: the price difference between hot rolling and thread is reduced to 160 yuan / ton. (1) The price ratio of thread and iron ore was 5.24 this week; (2) The price difference between hot coil and deformed steel bar on Friday is 160 yuan / ton; (3) The price difference between cold rolled steel and deformed steel bars in Shanghai was 650 yuan / ton on Friday, with a month on month comparison of – 70 yuan / ton; (4) The price ratio of electrolytic nickel in stainless steel hot rolling is 0.10; (5) The price difference between spiral nuts (mainly used in real estate) and deformed steel bars (mainly used in infrastructure construction) reached 190 yuan / ton on Friday, up + 0.00% from last week; (6) The price difference of rebar between Xinjiang and Shanghai was 70 yuan / ton on Friday.
Export chain: the utilization rate of crude steel production capacity in the United States is 80%, which is at the median level in the same period. (1) The CCFI composite index of China’s export container freight rate index was 330110 points this week, with a chain comparison of – 1.93%; (2) The utilization rate of crude steel capacity in the United States was 80.00% this week, with a month on month ratio of + 0.30 percentage points.
Valuation quantile: this week, the CSI 300 index was – 0.94%, and the best performance of the cyclical sector was real estate (+ 1.98%). The quantile of Pb ratio of Pu steel and industrial metals relative to that of Shanghai and Shenzhen (since 2013) were 29.58% and 83.86% respectively; The ratio of Pb in Pu steel sector to Pb in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is currently 0.49, with the highest value of 0.82 since 2013 (reached in August 2017).
Investment suggestion: Recently, affected by the epidemic, the demand for real estate infrastructure chain has weakened. According to the external report “increased probability of steel output reduction and reappearance of beta opportunities in the industry” on March 4, the expectation of output reduction in the industry will increase in the future. It is suggested to pay attention to Maanshan Iron & Steel Company Limited(600808) , Hunan Valin Steel Co.Ltd(000932) , Xinyu Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600782) , Baoshan Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600019) , Xinjiang Ba Yi Iron & Steel Co.Ltd(600581) .
Risk warning: the risk of correlation failure based on historical data; The risk of government regulation of commodity prices; Risk of poor management of the company.
