Core view: since December 2021, the automobile sector has adjusted continuously. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine in the middle and early March has exacerbated the bulk price rise and the tension of the supply chain. The stock price has fully reflected the impact of fundamentals. Under the leadership of Tesla, the prices of new energy vehicles have increased one after another to verify that the price increase of raw materials has been transmitted to the terminal, and the subsequent impact of the price increase on demand needs to be tracked. The valuation of the auto sector has been restored to the median level of the past three years. In the next 5-10 years, the penetration of new energy vehicles will continue to accelerate, the strong rise of independent brands and auto parts are expected to become bigger and stronger. The most difficult time for the auto sector may have passed. It is suggested to bargain hunting the auto sector.
Affected by the decline of subsidies and the sharp rise in the price of lithium carbonate, new energy vehicles welcome the price rise again. ① Tesla raised the price of its models twice on March 10 and 15 respectively. The price of high-performance model 3 and long-life model y increased by 28000 yuan and 30000 yuan in total; ② On March 15, the price of Byd Company Limited(002594) model increased by Dingli Corp.Ltd(300050) 00 yuan again after the price of its models increased by 1 Jiangnan Mould & Plastic Technology Co.Ltd(000700) 0 yuan on February 1; ③ On March 17, the price of Nezha car to the models in hand increased by Dingli Corp.Ltd(300050) 00 yuan. ④ On March 18, Xiaopeng automobile officially announced a price increase of 1010020000 yuan.
Market review: this week, the auto sector “suppressed first and then raised”. After the sharp decline in the first three trading days, it rebounded rapidly and basically recovered its lost ground. CITIC auto index fell 0.65%, outperforming the market by 0.30 percentage points, ranking 8th among 30 industries. Among them, passenger cars fell 0.11%, commercial vehicles fell 2.45%, auto parts fell 0.58%, auto sales and services fell 0.60%, motorcycles and others fell 1.10%. In the concept sector, the new energy vehicle index rose 2.46% and the intelligent vehicle index fell 0.10%.
Data tracking: 1) 46000 vehicles were approved for sale in the first two Sundays of March, with a year-on-year decrease of 11.0% and a month on month increase of 66%. Among them, 40000 vehicles were approved on the first Sunday, a year-on-year decrease of 20.5% and a month on month increase of 44.0% over the same period in February; 51000 vehicles in the second week, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2% and an increase of 85% over the same period in February. From the retail perspective, the average sales volume in the first two Sundays of March was 42000, a year-on-year decrease of 4.3% and a month on month increase of 60%. Among them, 37000 vehicles were retailed on the first Sunday, a year-on-year decrease of 12.8% and a month on month increase of 42% over the same period in February; The average number of vehicles on the second Sunday was 46000, an increase of 2.6% year-on-year and 75% month on month. 2) Raw material prices rose again. In March, the average prices of cold-rolled ordinary sheet, Changjiang nonferrous copper, aluminum A00, rubber and PP (wire drawing) increased by 1.6%, 4.0%, 16.2%, – 2.3% and 9.5% respectively compared with December of 21 years, with a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, 9.1%, 29.5%, 11.9% and – 5.4% respectively, dragging down the profits of the automobile industry. In addition, the price of lithium carbonate exceeded 500000 yuan / ton in March, which is a great pressure on the new energy vehicle industry chain.
Investment suggestions: 1) intelligent driving industry chain, focusing on Foryou Corporation(002906) , Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Lianchuang Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(002036) , Nextel and China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) . 2) Auto parts, focus on ① Tesla industrial chain, Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) , Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co.Ltd(002050) , Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) ; ② Lightweight, Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) ; ③ Platform company, focusing on Huayu Automotive Systems Company Limited(600741) , Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) . 3) The trend of independent rise is clear. It is suggested to pay attention to Byd Company Limited(002594) , ideal automobile, Xiaopeng automobile, Weilai automobile, Geely Automobile, Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) .
Risk tip: the lack of chips exceeded expectations, resulting in the industry recovery less than expected; The progress of intelligent electric is less than expected; Bulk price increases and core deficiency fermentation exceeded expectations.
