Key investment points
Monthly sales continued to decline, and the completed investment increased slightly year-on-year. From January to February, the sales amount was 1.54 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.3%, and the sales area was 157 million m3, a year-on-year decrease of 9.6%, which was narrower than that in December of 21. The completed investment increased slightly year-on-year. The completed investment from January to February was 1.45 trillion yuan, up 3.7% year-on-year. From January to February, 150 million m3 of new construction was started, a year-on-year decrease of 12.2%, and 122 million m3 was completed, a year-on-year decrease of 9.8%. From January to February, the purchased land area was 8.38 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 42.3%, and the land construction area was 1.23 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 12%. The funds in place of the industry decreased year-on-year. The funds in place from January to February were 2.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.7%.
The first round of centralized land supply varies in temperature and temperature, and the phenomenon of supporting the bottom of urban investment is still serious. 1) Fuzhou: there were only 12 transactions involving 18 homesteads, including 4 premium transactions and 2 transactions involving the maximum price + lottery. The overall premium rate was only 4.2%, and the proportion of plots traded at the base price increased to 67%, which was significantly higher than that in the three rounds of 2021. The overall auction rate was as high as 33%, and the auction rate was still relatively high. The phenomenon of supporting the bottom of state-owned enterprises is still common, and the land acquisition of local state-owned enterprise investment platforms in Fuzhou accounts for nearly 80%. 2) Qingdao: 15 of 16 residential plots were successfully traded, and 3 plots were traded at a premium, with an average premium rate of 2%, close to the level of the first batch last year, and the flow auction rate of 6.3% also remained at a relatively low level. The main force of land auction in Qingdao is almost all local real estate enterprises, and 8 of the 15 plots were obtained by local platform companies. 3) Hefei: 17 pieces of residential land were sold at a premium, of which 15 pieces of land entered the stage of competitive quality scheme due to the “top” of bidding.
The financial commission led the Ministry of Finance and other five ministries and commissions to release strong stability maintenance incentive signals on the intensive statement of the real estate industry. On March 16, the financial commission of the State Council, the central bank and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission made intensive statements on the real estate industry, released a strong signal of maintaining stability, and proposed to actively introduce policies conducive to the market and carefully introduce contractive policies. 1) Financial Committee: timely study and put forward effective solutions to prevent and resolve real estate risks. 2) Cbcirc: encourage institutions to carry out M & A loans in a stable and orderly manner, and focus on supporting high-quality real estate enterprises to merge and acquire high-quality projects of difficult real estate enterprises. 3) Ministry of Finance: there is no condition to expand the pilot cities of real estate tax reform this year. 4) CSRC: actively cooperate with relevant departments to effectively resolve the risks of real estate enterprises. 5) Central bank: stabilize expectations, boost confidence and jointly maintain the stable development of the capital market. 6) Safe: cooperate with relevant departments to promote the healthy and stable development of real estate market and platform economy and stabilize market expectations. It is expected that the next favorable policies will be further strengthened.
The deregulation policies of local governments have entered a period of intensive release, and loose measures have been taken to boost demand. According to incomplete statistics, in March, more than 10 cities across the country have taken incentive measures for house purchase, mainly involving reducing the minimum down payment ratio of loans, increasing the maximum amount of provident fund loans, relaxing the application recognition conditions and reducing the mortgage interest rate, which is conducive to further releasing the reasonable demand for house purchase, alleviating the pressure of some cities’ own property market and boosting market confidence.
Investment suggestion: we think we should pay attention to four main investment lines at present: 1) development enterprises: Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co.Ltd(000069) , China Resources Land, Longhu group, China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , Xuhui holdings, China Construction Development International Holdings, etc; 2) Property management enterprises: Country Garden service, China Resources Vientiane life, Jinke service, Xuhui Yongsheng service, Baolong business, etc; 3) Track transformation Enterprises: Tianjin Guangyu Development Co.Ltd(000537) , Lushang Health Industry Development Co.Ltd(600223) etc; 4) Real estate brokerage Enterprises: shells, etc.
Risk tips: project delivery risk, project sales collection risk, industry policy regulation risk.
