Zhou’s view: the meeting of the Finance Committee of the State Council stressed that relevant departments should earnestly assume their responsibilities, actively introduce policies beneficial to the market, carefully introduce contractive policies, and then relax the marginal real estate policy, which coincides with the substantive relaxation in many places in the current period; The trend of real estate investment from low to high is becoming more and more obvious. The “golden bottom” after the sharp decline is worth paying attention to. Consumer building materials with longer logic are preferred, focusing on Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) and building fire hydrants Jade Bird Fire Co.Ltd(002960) , cutting into the new blue ocean of energy storage and fire protection; Secondly, pay attention to Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , underestimate the value and pay high dividends, and actively layout the photovoltaic field; Finally, the chain of steady growth, focusing on Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) .
Consumption of building materials: due to the marginal relaxation of urban policies, the inflection point of the real estate industry is gradually approaching. The “two sessions” re mentioned that real estate should be based on urban policies, which coincides with the substantial relaxation of real estate regulation in many places recently, and the real estate fundamentals are expected to reach the bottom and stabilize quickly; The negative credit impairment of consumer building materials worried by the market in the early stage will also be gradually implemented with the disclosure of the annual report. The trend of increasing the concentration of consumer building materials leaders is determined, and the growth is still stable. The rise of short-term raw materials has brought some pressure to the gross profit margin, which provides a new allocation opportunity after the recent adjustment. Waterproof materials that run through the construction cycle and are catalyzed by industry standards are preferred (pay attention to Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) ); Secondly, there are pipe faucets ( Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , China Liansu) with excellent business quality, small ceramic tile faucets ( Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) ), and gypsum boards ( Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) ) benefiting from the completion cycle.
Cement: the epidemic has repeatedly affected the recovery of demand, and the price rise has been delayed. From January to February, the cement output was 199 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 17.8%, and the new construction of real estate decreased by 12.2% in the same period. The weakening of real estate combined with the staggered peak production of cement enterprises in the first quarter led to a year-on-year decline in demand. Recently, due to repeated epidemics in many places, the construction of downstream projects has slowed down, and the demand recovery is less than expected. We believe that the short-term epidemic disturbance will not change, the demand will gradually increase, and the demand will be delayed but will not be absent. In the first quarter, infrastructure investment will be carried out moderately in advance. Investment in key infrastructure projects in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Henan, Hebei and Guangdong will be gradually implemented. At the same time, real estate will be substantially relaxed in many places due to urban policies, and real estate demand is expected to hit the bottom and rebound. With the marginal improvement of the epidemic situation, the subsequent demand is expected to further recover, and the cement price will continue to rise. Under the current background of steady growth, the cement sector with undervalued value and high dividend is still the best choice for defensive counterattack. It is suggested to pay attention to the faucet Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) and the elastic subject Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) .
Glass: the downstream demand recovers slowly, and the manufacturer’s inventory continues to rise. We estimate that the growth rate of apparent demand for glass in February was 23.2%, mainly due to the low base in the same period last year; At present, due to the tight capital chain and repeated epidemic in South and East China, the demand for housing construction projects in the downstream recovers slowly, while most processing plants in North China officially resume work after March 15, and the overall demand has not yet fully recovered. Manufacturers continue to accumulate inventory and prices fall slightly. It is expected that the demand will further recover from the end of March to the beginning of April, waiting for a new round of replenishment in the downstream after the demand recovers. From a macro perspective, the demand for real estate completion remains resilient, with a real estate sales area of more than 1.7 billion square meters in 18-21 years. With the arrival of the housing delivery cycle and the background of guaranteed housing delivery, new construction accelerates the transmission of support demand to completion; Recently, the real estate policies of local governments have continued to relax. Due to the effect of urban policies, the real estate may gradually appear. The orders postponed since the second half of last year may usher in a centralized release, which is optimistic about a new round of volume and price rise of glass in the future. At the same time, the industrial chain extension of leading enterprises is gradually emerging, the proportion of growth businesses is gradually increasing, and the periodic fluctuation is gradually smoothed (it is recommended to pay attention to Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) , Xinyi Glass).
Glass fiber: the price of electronic yarn is weak, and the price of roving remains high and stable. This week China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) successively released the annual reports of 2021, and the profits reached a record high. At present, the inventory of roving industry continues to run at a low level, the price remains stable at a high level, and the profitability of enterprises is good; The price of electronic yarn continued to decline, the mainstream quotation of electronic yarn G75 fell below about 10000 yuan / ton, the mainstream quotation of electronic cloth price remained about 3.7 yuan / meter, and the electronic yarn operated weakly. We believe that roving demand remains strong, and the rapid growth of new energy vehicles supports the strong demand for thermoplastic yarn in 2022; Recently, the wind power installed capacity in some regions is planned to increase rapidly, and the installed capacity of wind power in the 14th five year plan may exceed the expectation again, so as to stimulate the demand of upstream and downstream industrial chains and wind power yarn, and the demand for high-end products in 2022 may be in full force; According to the tracked industrial production expansion plan, in 2022, the new supply is limited, the supply and demand of the industry remain matched, and the high outlook of the industry may continue or far exceed expectations. At the same time, the leading enterprises have capacity expansion, and the continuous high price operation brings high performance elasticity (it is recommended to pay attention to China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co.Ltd(300196) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) ).
Risk warning: the investment in fixed assets is lower than expected; The aggravation of trade conflict leads to the obstruction of sales volume of export enterprises; The margin of environmental protection supervision is relaxed, and the supply contraction is lower than expected; The sharp rise in the price of raw materials has brought cost pressure.
