This week (2022.3.142022.3.18), the building materials sector (SW) rose - 4.31%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose - 4%, and the excess return was - 0.31%. This week, the net capital inflow of the building materials sector (SW) was -1.368 billion yuan.
[Zhou viewpoint]
The government work report further strengthens the expectation of steady growth, and the force of infrastructure investment is still an important starting point. In the first half of the year, it is expected that the supporting policies are expected to be intensively introduced. Recently, the six ministries and commissions have actively stated to stabilize the real estate, and the relaxation of the real estate margin can still be expected. With the fall of medium-term structural credit, the countercyclical demand represented by cement is expected to stabilize and recover, supporting the quarterly profit center. The supply side may maintain strict constraints on normalization, medium and long-term favorable sector profit expectations and valuation repair. In the follow-up, we can pay attention to the marginal change of demand and the catalysis of macro policies. Cement and consumer building materials are recommended.
1. Cement sector: broad credit and steady growth are expected to continue to increase, which is expected to benefit. In the short term, due to the impact of epidemic control on the recovery of demand, the stable growth of credit is expected to rise in the medium term. With the increase of downward pressure on the economy, the growth rate of new real estate construction, construction and sales continues to be under pressure. In the first half of the year, the issuance speed of special bonds is expected to be further accelerated, and the rising momentum of infrastructure chain is expected to be strengthened. Under the structural wide credit, the cement demand is expected to start the stabilization and recovery cycle, which will support the cement price center in the medium term to be higher than that in the same period of previous years. At present, the relative valuations of sector price book ratio and P / E ratio are still at a historically low level, and the industry valuation is also expected to be repaired. Recommend Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) and Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) with strong performance certainty and bright spots in the extension of medium and long-term industrial chain. The medium and long-term recommendation is expected to benefit from the market integration in Northeast and North China and Tangshan Jidong Cement Co.Ltd(000401) with great business elasticity.
2. Glass sector: the demand is weak and the price has dropped. The subsequent demand and downstream orders still need to be observed. At present, the glass demand has been affected by factors such as the real estate capital chain and the epidemic situation, and the recovery is slow. The price has dropped somewhat, and the manufacturer's inventory has increased. The subsequent price side performance needs to be driven by terminal demand or supply side factors. From a medium-term perspective, the glass supply side has entered a new stage and is expected to replicate the profit curve of the cement industry after 2018. With the strong constraint on the total supply after the tightening of industrial policy constraints, the supply side of float glass has gradually transitioned to a stage similar to that after 2017. The medium and long-term supply and demand of the industry has maintained a tight balance. In the stock competition, the boom center of the industry is expected to be significantly improved, and the volatility is expected to be significantly improved. Medium and long-term environmental protection will reshape the industry cost curve. The increase in the fuel cost of the original coal-fired production line in the north from coal to gas is good for the price center of the southern market. Resources are the main source of long-term excess profits, and large enterprises and high-quality production capacity benefit. Recommend Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) (deep processing, electronics, medicine, photovoltaic glass and other industrial chain extension is quite bright, and the dividend rate is high), CSG a (photovoltaic glass is vigorously expanded, and electronic glass ushers in a breakthrough), and pay attention to Shandong Jinjing Science And Technology Stock Co.Ltd(600586) .
In terms of consumer building materials, the new construction and sales of short-term real estate remain weak, and the investment side remains resilient. In the first half of the year, it is expected that the pressure on the demand side will still be reflected. On the profit side, the high price pressure of upstream raw materials is still testing the profitability, but the price transmission and product structure adjustment are expected to hedge some of the impact; At the valuation level, most consumer building materials targets are already in the lower limit of the historical valuation range, and the valuation repair needs to continue to track the marginal changes of policies. Recently, the six ministries and commissions have actively stated to stabilize the real estate, and the real estate policy is expected to be phased marginal easing under the tone of maintaining stability, paying attention to the opportunities for valuation repair of building materials in the post real estate cycle; It is suggested to pay attention to 1) the leaders of engineering building materials with growth, especially the companies that have established the small b customer development and multi category sales system of sinking market. Core recommendations Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) ; It is also recommended to pay attention to the subdivided leading enterprises with strong growth flexibility and whose valuation has been at the lower limit of the historical range, and recommend Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) , Jiangsu Canlon Building Materials Co.Ltd(300715) ; It is recommended that Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) .
[weekly data of subdivided industries]
1. Cement: this week, the price of the national cement market fell by 0.2% month on month. The price rise areas are Zhejiang, Fujian, Henan and Tibet, with a range of 20-50 yuan / ton; The falling areas are mainly Heilongjiang and Guizhou, with a range of 30-90 yuan / ton. In mid March, the demand of China's cement market was affected by the multi-point spread of the epidemic, the construction progress of the project was limited, and the improvement of cement shipments this week was limited. In terms of price, due to the obvious increase in the cost side, the cement price in some southern regions has maintained an upward trend; As the demand in Northeast China has just started, the quotation has returned to a reasonable level from a high level. In the short term, due to the outbreak of the epidemic in many parts of the country, the government control is relatively strict, and the recovery of downstream demand is affected. After the epidemic is controlled, it is expected that the market demand will be released intensively and the price will continue to rise.
The average price of cement market in Pan Beijing Tianjin Hebei region was 544 yuan / ton, unchanged from last week, with a year-on-year increase of + 99.17 yuan / ton; The average market price of cement in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River was 541 yuan / ton, unchanged from last week, with a year-on-year increase of + 47.5 yuan / ton; The average market price of cement in the Yangtze River Basin was 519 yuan / ton, unchanged from last week, with a year-on-year increase of + 50.71 yuan / ton; The average price of cement market in Guangdong and Guangxi is 485 yuan / ton, which is the same as last week, with a year-on-year increase of + 10 yuan / ton.
Cement inventory in Pan Beijing Tianjin Hebei region was 36%, with a week on week ratio of - 1%; The cement inventory in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River was 66%, unchanged from last week; The inventory in the Yangtze River Basin was 63%, with a week on week ratio of - 4%; The inventory of Guangdong and Guangdong regions was 72%, with a week-on-week ratio of - 2%.
2. Glass: the average price of the original float white glass in China this week was 226608 yuan / ton, with a week-on-week ratio of -118.12 yuan / ton and a year-on-year ratio of -5.99 yuan / ton. This week, China's float glass market is weak and downward, and prices in most regions have been reduced by different ranges. The original film inventory of sample enterprises in 13 provinces across the country was 53.72 million boxes, with a week-on-week increase of + 300 boxes and a year-on-year increase of + 24.89 million boxes.
3. Glass fiber: Taishan Glass Fiber Co., Ltd. mainly produces alkali free roving of various specifications. At present, 17 tank kiln production lines are in production, with an annual production capacity of 1065000 tons. Recently, the market demand is weak, and the overall shipment of the manufacturer is still average. The price of some glass fiber yarn products of the manufacturer remains stable.. The price of some glass fiber yarn products of the manufacturer has been slightly adjusted. The manufacturer's external ex factory prices in the northern market are as follows: 2400tex jet yarn is quoted at 10000 yuan / ton, 2400texsmc yarn at 9000 yuan / ton, 2400tex winding yarn at 6500 yuan / ton, thermoplastic direct yarn at 71007200 yuan / ton, and 2400tex felt yarn / sheet yarn at 9500 yuan / ton. Electronic yarn: Taishan glass fiber Zoucheng Co., Ltd. mainly produces tank kiln electronic yarn. At present, two electronic level tank kiln lines are in normal production, with an annual output of about 110000 tons. In the early stage, line 2 has been discontinued. The main products are G75, G37, G150, e225, D450 and other models. G37 is basically used by itself. Recently, the price of manufacturer's electronic yarn G75 has been temporarily stable. At present, the mainstream quotation is about 10000 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of class a products, including tax, is slightly different from that of different customers. The actual transaction is according to the contract, but at present, the manufacturer has few sources of goods for export and has a large amount of self consumption. Wooden pallet packaging and plastic pipe recycling, with a time limit of 3 months. The main delivery areas are Shandong and Jiangsu and Zhejiang. At present, the production and marketing of China's electronic cloth (7628 cloth) market has gradually recovered. At present, the quotation is about 3.7 yuan / meter, and the actual transaction is based on the contract.
Repeated exchange rate policy and sharp depreciation risk.
