Core view
Crude oil related information:
Crude oil and related inventory: on March 11, 2022, the commercial inventory of crude oil in the United States was 415.9 million barrels, an increase of 4.3 million barrels per week; Gasoline inventory was 241 million barrels, with a weekly decrease of 3.6 million barrels; The inventory of distillate oil was 114.2 million barrels, an increase of 300000 barrels per week; Propane inventory was 33308 million barrels, with a weekly decrease of 2222000 barrels. U.S. crude oil production and number of drilling rigs: on March 11, 2022, the U.S. crude oil production was 11.6 million barrels / day, the weekly number remained unchanged, an increase of 700000 barrels / day compared with a year ago. The number of drilling rigs in the United States increased by 252 in 18 months and remained unchanged in 3 weeks; The number of drilling rigs in Canada is 206, with a weekly decrease of 30 and an annual increase of 84. Among them, there are 524 oil production rigs in the United States, with a decrease of 3 in the week and an increase of 206 in the year.
Price change:
Among the 188 chemical products we monitored, the top three products with price increases this week were power coal (Qinhuangdao) (up 52.5%), ammonium nitrate International (up 21.1%) and sulfuric acid (up 15.6%); The top three declines were: glyphosate (down 25.0%), liquid chlorine (down 22.7%) and naphtha (down 21.5%).
Monthly, the top three products with price increases were thermal coal (Qinhuangdao) (up 52.5%), sulfuric acid (up 47.8%) and butadiene (up 36.2%); The top three declines were glyphosate (down 37.3%), glycine (down 31.5%) and melamine (down 20.3%). Price difference change:
The top three products with price difference increase this week are oil head ethylene glycol price difference (up 986.9%), styrene price difference (up 733.4%) and PTA price difference (up 506.2%); The top three declines were: coal head ethylene glycol price difference (down 1190.9%), diammonium phosphate (down 830.9%), PX (down 290.4%).
On a monthly basis, the top three products with price difference growth were R410A (up 500.0%), styrene (up 244.7%) and butadiene (up 153.3%); The top three declines were DMAC spread (down 1590.1%), R134a spread (down 236.8%) and polyethylene spread (down 223.9%).
Investment proposal and investment object
Recently, the oil price is at a high level. The market is worried that the profitability of large refining and chemical will be affected after the oil price exceeds $80 / barrel. In terms of refined oil, as China’s refined oil pricing mechanism is more market-oriented, in the range of 40-130 US dollars / barrel, as long as the oil price does not rise or fall sharply, there is a high probability that there will be a reasonable profit range for refined oil in the future. In terms of chemicals, due to the existence of supply side constraints, the rising probability of cost side can be transmitted to the downstream. At present, the price difference of chemicals represented by polyethylene is at the bottom and the downward space is small. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities of Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) ( Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , buy), Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) ( Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , buy), Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) ( Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , buy).
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the rise of crude oil and other commodities and the rise of inflation. It is suggested to pay attention to opportunities related to agrochemicals. In terms of chemical fertilizer, due to the extremely limited new production capacity of global chemical fertilizer supply, the global supply and demand of chemical fertilizer maintain a fragile and tight balance. Although the recent price is relatively stable, there are expectations of continued price rise and trading opportunities in the sector from the recent rise of chemical fertilizer targets in US stocks. It is recommended to pay attention to Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) (60096, overweight), Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) ( Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) , buy), Anhui Sierte Fertilizer Industry Ltd.Company(002538) ( Anhui Sierte Fertilizer Industry Ltd.Company(002538) , buy), Sichuan Meifeng Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000731) ( Sichuan Meifeng Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000731) , not rated) Yangmei Chemical Co.Ltd(600691) ( Yangmei Chemical Co.Ltd(600691) , not rated), Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) ( Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , not rated), etc. In terms of pesticides, high food prices support the demand and price acceptance of pesticides, and pay attention to the globally distributed pesticide enterprises with outstanding competitiveness Shandong Weifang Rainbow Chemical Co.Ltd(301035) ( Shandong Weifang Rainbow Chemical Co.Ltd(301035) , buy).
Risk tips
The price difference between ethylene and oil price further narrowed, the demand for chemicals was lower than expected, the price of crude oil fluctuated sharply, and geopolitics.
