Core view
Industry data tracking: after the holiday tourism peak, in February, Hainan received tourists + 12.8% year-on-year and + 66.14% month on month. In February 2022, Hainan received 110321 million tourists (including overnight tourists and one-day tourists), with a year-on-year increase of + 12.80% and a month on month increase of + 66.14%. The number of tourists after the festival under the stable epidemic situation increased significantly; In February, the total tourism revenue of Hainan Province was 18.487 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 20.73% and a month on month increase of + 25.88%.
In February, Hainan received overnight tourists + 15.78% year-on-year, and the travel of tourists on the island increased significantly. In February 2022, Hainan received 5.9596 million overnight tourists, with a year-on-year increase of + 15.78% and a month on month increase of + 8.98%, an increase of 2.89% compared with the same period in 2019. Among them, Haikou received 1404600 overnight tourists in February, a year-on-year increase of 21.53%, returning to 81.68% in the same period in 2019; Sanya received 2.4446 million overnight tourists in February, a year-on-year increase of + 15.17%, recovering to 78.42% in the same period in 2019.
In March, the national epidemic repeatedly affected the passenger flow in Hainan, and the off Island duty-free line was under pressure. Due to the superposition of the local epidemic situation in Sanya and the rebound of the epidemic situation in many parts of the country this month, the passenger flow of Hainan airport decreased significantly in March. The inbound and outbound passengers of Haikou airport decreased by 37% month on month compared with the same period in February (including the peak of Spring Festival transportation). The daily inbound and outbound passengers this week have reached less than 40000 person times, 20% less than that of last week; The number of inbound and outbound passengers at Sanya airport decreased by 59% month on month compared with the same period in February. This week, the number of inbound and outbound passengers per day has been less than 20000, and the number of inbound and outbound passengers decreased by 18% month on month compared with last week.
Investment suggestion: once again, focus on the long-term logic of tax exemption – scale advantage and the curing ability of China tax exemption for scale advantage. It is suggested to pay attention to the value investment attribute of China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) [ China Tourism Group Duty Free Corporation Limited(601888) . Sh]. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021, 2022 and 2023 will be 9.591 billion yuan / 11.757 billion yuan / 16.509 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 38.02/31.02/22.09 respectively.
Risk warning: repeated outbreaks in China; Promotion discount rate fluctuation; Changes in immigration policies.
