A number of new energy vehicle enterprises announced price increases
We believe that since 2021, the prices of upstream raw materials of lithium batteries such as cobalt and lithium have risen sharply, and the pressure on the lithium battery link is obvious. According to the data of xinlune lithium battery and wind, as of March 18, 2022, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 515000 yuan / ton, up 890.4% from 52000 yuan / ton on December 31, 2020; The average price of cobalt in the Yangtze nonferrous metals market was 571000 yuan / ton, up 104.7% from 279000 yuan / ton on December 31, 2020. The adjustment of model prices of mainstream car enterprises will help ease the cost pressure on the lithium battery end. Subsequently, with the improvement of downstream demand and the easing of upstream raw material price fluctuations, new energy vehicles will maintain a good development as a whole.
Core view:
We believe that the new energy vehicle industry is gradually changing from policy driven to market driven. Driven by the continuous improvement of cost performance and the continuous increase in the supply of high-quality models, new energy vehicles are expected to enter the stage of accelerated penetration. Optimistic:
1) leading high growth and high certainty opportunities, Tesla, new forces and other auto enterprises, as well as Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , LG Chemical and other power battery supply chains;
2) opportunities for high nickel cathode materials, silicon-based cathode materials, conductive agents and new lithium salts brought by the expansion of demand for long-term battery life and fast charging and the implementation of new technologies such as 4680 battery;
3) the increase of sales volume drives the increase of demand, and it is expected that the supply and demand will be tight, such as diaphragm, copper foil and so on;
4) the increasingly clear demand positioning brings opportunities for lithium iron phosphate ternary material batteries and cathode materials;
5) the positive electrode material and precursor industry pattern brought by the trend of high nickel is more clear, and the leading advantage is expected to continue to expand;
6) under the rapid growth trend of the industry, its own advantages are enhanced, and the performance is expected to achieve the second-line target that exceeds the expected performance;
7) subdivide the leading track and have significant technology / cost moat advantage targets in the industry competition;
8) the accelerated layout of production capacity is expected to significantly benefit the relevant targets of the rapid growth of industrial demand;
9) subdivided links with structural opportunities such as energy storage and two wheeled vehicles, as well as continuously improved charging and replacement facilities.
Beneficiary targets include: ducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducamongamong the following: ducducducducducducducducducducducducducducducamongamong among the following: ducducducducamongamong among the following: Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Hongfa Technology Co.Ltd(600885) , Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) , Qingdao Tgood Electric Co.Ltd(300001) , etc.
Risk tips
The development of new energy vehicle industry does not meet expectations; The improvement of new energy installation and power rationing did not meet expectations; Risk of sharp decline in product price; The development of the epidemic exceeded the expected risk.
