This week’s view:
Covid-19 oral drugs have made continuous progress at home and abroad, and it is suggested to continue to focus on it. This week, the CSI 300 fell 0.9%, and the pharmaceutical and biological industry rose 1.1%, ranking third in 28 primary sub industries. This week, the pharmaceutical sector continues to focus on the COVID-19 related theme. We suggest that we continue to focus on the opportunity of COVID-19 oral drug industry chain. The development of drugs has been listed or researched in China continuously: 1) Pfizer 15 Paxlovid:3, the National Health Protection Commission and the Chinese Medicine Administration jointly issued the New Coronavirus pneumonia diagnosis and treatment plan (trial version ninth). The domestic monoclonal antibodies of Pfizer paxlovid and tengshengbo (ambavizumab / romisvir mAb injection) were written into the diagnosis and treatment plan; On March 17, the Geneva pharmaceutical patent pool (MPP) announced that it had signed an agreement with 35 enterprises worldwide (including five Chinese pharmaceutical enterprises including API preparation integration leader, Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co.Ltd(600196) , Apeloa Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(000739) , Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603456) , and deseno) to authorize the production of APIs or / and preparations of Pfizer oral covid-19 therapeutic drug nimatrivir (pf-07321332). Authorized generic drug companies will be able to provide paxlovid combination therapy to 95 low – and middle-income countries / regions around the world, covering about 53% of the world’s population. Pfizer expects paxlovid’s production capacity to reach 120 million treatment courses in 2022, and its sales in 2022 are expected to be $22 billion. 2) Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) vv116: the announcement on March 17 showed that the phase I data were good, and the international multicenter phase III clinical trial completed the enrollment and administration of the first patient. 3) Real biological azvudine: the preliminary analysis data are good, and phase III clinical research is being carried out in Brazil and other countries. In addition, the CDE official website shows that real creatures are applying for communication at class II meetings. 4) Yanyeyi s-217622: an application for production and sales license has been submitted to the Ministry of health, labor and welfare of Japan on February 25. At present, yanyeyi has produced 1 million oral drugs and is expected to achieve a production capacity of 10 million person copies / year from April.
At present, in addition to the listed molnupiravir and Pfizer paxlovid, covid-19 oral specific drugs with rapid research and development progress all over the world mainly include real life azvudine, yanyeyi s-217622 and Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) vv116. Under the background of repeated global epidemics and liberalizing demand, covid-19 oral medicine is expected to become an important means of anti epidemic with its advantages of efficacy and convenience. Considering the current shortage of global production capacity and the requirements of the original research on R & D progress, China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) manufacturing enterprises are expected to deeply participate in all links of the industrial chain through the advantages of process development, large-scale production and customer relationship accumulated over the years, bringing certain performance flexibility. In our opinion, the oral drug of covid- 19 is expected to be an important investment opportunity this year. We’d like to grasp it and focus on the Chinese R & D and innovation enterprises, the cdmo industry chain of new drugs created by big drug companies overseas, and the generic industry chain, as well as the generic industry chain, such as the Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) \ , Zhejiang Ausun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603229) , Zhejiang Starry Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603520) , Aurisco Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(605116) , Jiangxi Synergy Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300636) , Ningbo Menovo Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603538) , etc.
The epidemic situation is repeated, and the immunization is strengthened in sequence. It is suggested to pay attention to the investment opportunities in the vaccine sector. Recently, sporadic outbreaks have occurred in Hong Kong, Guangdong, Zhejiang, Jilin, Shanghai and other places in China in a short time, and vaccines are still an important means of epidemic prevention and control. In addition, the National Health Commission has begun to deploy sequential immunization. Considering the increasingly obvious influenza trend of covid-19 epidemic, it is suggested to pay attention to covid-19 vaccine related development enterprises, including Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) , Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) , Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) -u, Walvax Biotechnology Co.Ltd(300142) etc. In the long term, each vaccine leader enterprise will have a big shot in the long term, and each vaccine leader enterprise will have a big shot in the big variety, or will soon be on the market. Superimposed on covid- 19’s rising awareness of vaccination under the pandemic, we expect the big variety vaccination rate to continue to rise and gradually approach the level of developed countries. We expect the big variety vaccination rate is expected to continue to rise, and gradually approach the level of developed countries. The second-class vaccine industry is expected to see a 20% – 30% compound 20% – 30% growth in nearly three to five years to five years, and the second tier vaccine industry is expected to achieve a compound 20% – 30% growth in the next three to five years, the second tier vaccine industry is expected to achieve a compound 20% – 30% growth in the next three to five years. It’s recommended to recommend Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) \ \ etc.
To highlight the performance of a single stock: a three month highlight: a three month highlight: a three month highlight: a three month highlight: a three month highlight: a three month highlight: a three month highlight: a three month highlight: tofocus on the following: ‘ Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) \ , Cinda biology, Nanjing King-Friend Biochemical Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603707) , Joinn Laboratories (China) Co.Ltd(603127) , Zhejiang Gongdong Medical Technology Co.Ltd(605369) , Zhejiang Tianyu Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(300702) , Zhejiang Starry Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603520) , Zhejiang Ausun Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603229) ; The average rise this week was 5.37%, outperforming the pharmaceutical industry by 4.29%.
One week market dynamics: Based on the analysis of the pharmaceutical sector from the beginning of 2022 to the present, the yield of the pharmaceutical sector is – 12.5%, the yield of CSI 300 in the same period is – 13.7%, and the yield of the pharmaceutical sector outperforms that of CSI 300 by 1.1%. This week, the CSI 300 fell by 0.9%, and the pharmaceutical and biological industry rose by 1.1%, ranking the third in 28 primary sub industries. Except for the decline of medical devices and medical services, the other sub sectors all rose, among which the biological products rose the most, 6.29%, and the chemical pharmaceutical industry rose the least, 0.90%. After deducting the current valuation of the pharmaceutical sector, the price earnings ratio of the financial sector (PE) is about 2.09 times that of the pharmaceutical sector, which is about 2.09 times that of the financial sector in 20203. Calculated by TTM valuation method, the current valuation of the pharmaceutical sector is 28.7 times PE, which is lower than the historical average (37.2 times PE), and the premium rate relative to all A-Shares (excluding the financial sector) is 42%.
Risk warning: the risk of policy disturbance, drug quality problems, and the risk of delayed information or untimely update of the public data used in the research report.
