This week, the prosperity index of Guohai chemical industry was 148.59, down 1.66 month on month, and the prosperity improved month on month. Comprehensively consider the operation and prosperity of chemical enterprises, and give the industry a “recommended” rating.
Investment suggestion: leading enterprises usher in the period of strategic layout.
With the recent sharp rise in Brent crude oil price and the rebound in spring demand, the price of chemical products has ushered in a general rise, and the prosperity index of Guohai chemical industry monitored by us has rebounded again. We believe that at the current time point, the leading enterprises in the chemical industry have entered the period of strategic layout. From the perspective of lengthening history, the prosperity of the chemical industry has rebounded since 2016. From the perspective of the large capacity cycle, it is still in the upward period of the capacity cycle. The supply side reform plays a key role in suppressing the capacity expansion, and the demand side fluctuations have brought periodic inventory cycle fluctuations, such as the price decline caused by the decline in demand from the second half of 2018 to the beginning of 2019 and the decline caused by the covid-19 epidemic in the beginning of 2020, In the second half of 2022, the demand caused by the real estate impact declined. However, from the supply side, the capital expenditure of the overall chemical listed companies is still limited by policies and cannot be released smoothly. The final result is that the profit center of chemical products continues to rise, and the net interest center of almost major chemical leading enterprises gradually rises. At the current time point, China’s stable economic policy continues to increase, the decline in China’s demand is expected to gradually ease, the foreign covid-19 epidemic prevention policy is gradually relaxed, and the demand is rising again. However, under the dual carbon background, the capital expenditure of the global chemical industry is still suppressed, and the prosperity of the chemical industry is expected to continue to rise. From the perspective of quantity, with the introduction of China’s stable economic policy, some policies previously restricting the capital expenditure of leading enterprises are expected to be adjusted. It has been seen that the energy consumption of raw materials does not occupy the energy consumption index, the probability of new production capacity of leading enterprises being approved this year has increased, and the long-term growth expectation has reappeared, but the capacity expansion of the whole industry is still suppressed. In 2021, some leading chemical enterprises have recalled some share prices. From the perspective of three years, with the implementation of the project, the profits of leading chemical enterprises are expected to enter the growth track again and usher in a good opportunity for layout.
At the same time, the loss of profits in downstream industries due to high raw material costs will be alleviated and prices will be gradually transmitted to the downstream. The new material industry will be driven by new energy and emerging industries and usher in a good opportunity for development.
Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) has entered a period of rapid expansion. We believe that the core means to achieve the goal of carbon peak and carbon neutralization in the chemical industry is to use technological innovation to bring changes in energy structure, energy consumption level, raw material structure and product structure. Technological innovation is the key, and innovation can continue to grow. In 2021, the company’s R & D expenses reached 3.168 billion yuan, an increase of 55.07% year-on-year; By the end of 2021, the company’s construction in progress had reached 29.352 billion yuan, accounting for 45% of fixed assets, of which the cash inflow of fixed assets purchased and constructed in the fourth quarter had reached 8.054 billion yuan, reaching a record high. The company’s new production capacity has been promoted in an orderly manner. In 2021, Sichuan Meishan base 60000 T / a PBAT biodegradable polyester project and 10000 t / a lithium battery ternary cathode battery material project have been successfully put into operation; 400000 T / a MDI project of Fujian base and Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) T / a MDI project of Ningbo base are under continuous construction; The company invested 1.927 billion yuan to build a 250000 T / a TDI expansion project in Fujian Industrial Park. The project and Fujian 800000 T / a PVC project have been started on February 7, 2022, of which the TDI project is expected to be put into operation in 2023. With new projects reaching production capacity one after another, the company’s competitive advantage is expected to continue to enhance. Under the double carbon background, Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) ‘s MDI, as an excellent thermal insulation material, is expected to usher in a period of demand explosion. Because the company has the ability of R & D and innovation, can expand capacity and grow without worry, Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) .
Private refining ushered in a good opportunity for development. The prosperity of large-scale refining and chemical projects itself is at the middle and lower level in history. At present, it is gradually extending to the downstream. A series of new chemical material projects are expected to be implemented and the growth capacity will rise again. Enterprises such as Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) , Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) , Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) , etc. are recommended. Satellite chemical phase I ethylene project is gradually put into operation. The route of importing low-cost ethane from the United States to produce low-carbon olefins has been opened. The company is expected to continue to expand production capacity and expand downstream with low-cost raw materials, which deserves special attention.
The leading development of coal chemical industry has ushered in a turnaround. With the relaxation of the policy on energy consumption of raw materials, the coal chemical projects blocked in the early stage are expected to be implemented, and the growth of enterprises such as Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group Co.Ltd(600989) , Luxi Chemical Group Co.Ltd(000830) , etc. is prominent.
The tire industry has entered the strategic layout period. We judge that 2021q4 is the lowest point of the industry, and the profit of 2022q1 tire industry begins to improve. Based on three judgments, first, the supply shrinks, and small and medium-sized tire enterprises begin to shut down. According to the data of Zhuo Chuang information, on March 10, 2022, the operating rate of China’s semi steel tire enterprises was 72.52%, up 4.38 percentage points from last week and down 0.38 percentage points from the same period last year. This week, the operating load of all steel tires of tire enterprises in Shandong was 62.2%, down 1.76 percentage points from last week and 15.0 percentage points from the same period last year. This week, China’s all steel tire market is advancing well, and the market trading is gradually improving; Second, the price of sea freight has been loosened. According to Bloomberg, the FBX index from China to the West US port this week was $1635310/feu, up + 1.22% from last week; The FBX index from China to Meidong port was US $1843230/feu, up + 1.12% from last week; The FBX index from China to Europe was US $1338160/feu, down from – 1.50% last week. Third, in December 2021, China’s monthly output of commercial vehicles was 380000, an increase of 7.7% month on month, the output of automobiles was 2.91 million, an increase of 12.5% month on month, and the output of trucks was 331000, an increase of 6.9% month on month. The bottom of the tire is reversed. Under the background of supply contraction and demand improvement, according to incomplete statistics of China tire commercial WeChat official account, 32 tire enterprises announced the price increase in 2022. Overall, the price increase of this round is more than 2%-5%, and the highest increase is 10%. Nine tire enterprises in foreign markets have announced price increases, with a maximum price increase of 16%. We believe that the profit margin level of tires will gradually recover. In the long run, Chinese enterprises have the advantages of and 35.
The prosperity of phosphorus chemical industry is sustainable, and the transformation of new energy is in progress. The price of phosphate rock continued to rise, from 350 yuan / ton at the end of 2020 to 643 yuan / ton at present, an increase of 84%; The price of yellow phosphorus was adjusted back to 34000 yuan / ton, up 45% from 23500 yuan / ton in August 2021; Enterprises with industrial chain integration will benefit.
In addition, the export volume of monoammonium phosphate, diammonium phosphate and compound fertilizer decreased significantly in August 2021, and the export was limited. As a compound fertilizer industry with squeezed terminal profits, the profits gradually improved. In the first half of 2022, iron phosphate of Xinyangfeng Agricultural Technology Co.Ltd(000902) and Guizhou Chanhen Chemical Corporation(002895) will be put into operation, and the phosphorus chemical industry chain is still in the transition period from traditional fertilizer industry to new energy materials. We focus on phosphorus chemical enterprises with industrial chain integration and fast transformation speed, including Xinyangfeng Agricultural Technology Co.Ltd(000902) , Guizhou Chanhen Chemical Corporation(002895) , Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co.Ltd(002539) , Yunnan Yuntianhua Co.Ltd(600096) , Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group Co.Ltd(600141) , Shenzhen Batian Ecotypic Engineering Co.Ltd(002170) , Hubei Yihua Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(000422) , Shanghai Zhongyida Co.Ltd(600610) Shanghai Zhongyida Co.Ltd(600610) merger draft has been released.
At the same time, recommend Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) , the rising price of sugar substitutes Anhui Jinhe Industrial Co.Ltd(002597) , Shandong Sinocera Functional Material Co.Ltd(300285) and Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) , which can maintain performance growth under the pressure of rising raw material prices, and Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) , which expand to new energy materials.
At present, we believe that China’s leading companies have the ability to plan a global blueprint and move towards global leaders. We suggest that we should work with excellent enterprises and invest in those enterprises with efficient execution. This efficient ability will make the profitability of Chinese enterprises higher than that of international competitors, with higher rate of return and larger scale in the future. Therefore, the market value level of foreign giants may not be the ceiling of Chinese Enterprises. For example, Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , which is building an integrated industrial chain, continuously increasing R & D investment, expanding in multiple categories and marching towards a first-class chemical new material company with global operation, has made a synchronous breakthrough in original packaging replacement, China and foreign countries go hand in hand, pointed to Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.Ltd(601966) , the top five in the global tire industry in 2030, and Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) and Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) with high starting point, high standard and high efficiency.
We focus on the leaders in various sub sectors that are still underrated. For example, the Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) \ , Hengyi Petrochemical Co.Ltd(000703) , Xinfengming Group Co.Ltd(603225) ), Xinyangfeng Agricultural Technology Co.Ltd(000902) and Chengdu Wintrue Holding Co.Ltd(002539) , rubber auxiliary faucet Shandong Yanggu Huatai Chemical Co.Ltd(300121) For a long- 7 , plant growth regulator faucet Sichuan Guoguang Agrochemical Co.Ltd(002749) , titanium dioxide faucet Lb Group Co.Ltd(002601) , spandex and adipic acid faucet Huafon Chemical Co.Ltd(002064) Organic fine chemicals leader Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) , dicamba enterprise Jiangsu Changqing Agrochemical Co.Ltd(002391) , oil chemical leader Zanyu Technology Group Co.Ltd(002637) etc.
U.S. Commerce Department of the U.S. Department of Commerce, the local time 2020. On May 15, 2020, the local time of the U.S. Department of Commerce in the U.S. Department of Commerce in the U.S. on May 15, 2020. A statement released on May 15, 2020 May 15, the local time of the U.S. Department of Commerce on May 15, 2020 May 15, 2020, the local time of the local time of the local time of the U.S. Department of Commerce on May 15, 2020. A statement released on May 15, 2020. A statement released on May 15, 2020. A statement said that it would comprehensively restrict Huawei from purchasing semiconthat use U.S. software and technology to produce semiconthat uses U.S. software and technology. The strategic position of semiconductor materials is becoming increasingly prominent, and the strategic position of semiconductor materials is becoming increasingly prominent. It is suggested to focus on the proposal to focus attention on companies such as Shanghai Bright Power Semiconductor Co.Ltd(688368) 83 Shanghai Bright Power Semiconductor Co.Ltd(688368) 83838383838323 the. In addition, we hope that the new materials will continue to expand continuously, and have strong technical content of polymer anti-aging leader Rianlon Corporation(300596) , thermoplastic elastomer head Shandong Dawn Polymer Co.Ltd(002838) , brine extraction lithium technology leader Sunresin New Materials Co.Ltd Xi’An(300487) .
Key target information tracking
[ Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) ] according to Zhuo Chuang information, the price of pure MDI was 23000 yuan / ton on March 18, down 1000 yuan / ton from March 11; The price of polymerized MDI was 18325 yuan / ton, down 1425 yuan / ton compared with March 11. On March 14, Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) released the annual report of 2021, realizing a revenue of 145538 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 98.19%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 24.649 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 145.47%; Among them, Q4 achieved a revenue of 38.219 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 57.92% and a month on month increase of – 3.64%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 5.107 billion, with a year-on-year increase of + 8.84% and a month on month increase of – 15.04%. On March 18, the company disclosed the draft of the environmental impact report of the 20000 t / a silicone MQ resin and derivatives project. It plans to build a 15000 T / a silicone MQ resin device and a 5000 t / a silicone resin derivative product unit of the electronic packaging group, with a construction period of one year. According to wind, on March 10, Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) (Ningxia) Co., Ltd. was established with a registered capital of 100 million yuan, which was held by Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) 100% Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) plans to invest in MDI separation and propylene BDO project in Ningdong base. The total investment of the project is 15 billion yuan, mainly for the construction of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank Co.Ltd(600000) T / a MDI separation, 320000 T / a propylene BDO and other downstream projects of coal chemical industry such as acetic acid, vinyl acetate and EO / EOD. The project belongs to the fine chemical industry, and the products are widely used in spandex raw materials and other fields. It is of great significance to lengthen and extend the high-performance fiber industry chain and cultivate high-performance fiber industry clusters.
[ Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.Ltd(601966) ] according to Bloomberg, the FBX index from China to the West US port this week was $1635310/feu, up + 1.22% from last week; The FBX index from China to Meidong port was US $1843230/feu, up + 1.12% from last week; The FBX index from China to Europe was US $1338160/feu, down from – 1.50% last week. On March 15, Shandong Linglong Tyre Co.Ltd(601966) said on the interactive platform that at present, the Serbian project of the company is in the stage of equipment installation and commissioning and government commissioning acceptance, and it is planned to be put into operation in the second quarter. On March 18, the company issued an announcement on the controlling shareholder’s plan to increase the company’s shares. The main body of the increase is Linglong group. Before the implementation of this shareholding increase plan, Linglong group held 583 million shares of the company, accounting for 42.50% of the total shares of the company. The proposed increase in holdings shall not be less than 150 million yuan and not more than 200 million yuan.
[ Sailun Group Co.Ltd(601058) ] on March 16, Sailun Group Co.Ltd(601058) announced that the new China Union Holdings Ltd(000036) Co., Ltd., a shareholder holding more than 5% of the company’s shares, passively reduced 25 million shares through centralized bidding from January 13 to March 16, accounting for 0.82% of the company’s total share capital.
As of the disclosure date of this announcement, the implementation of the reduction plan has been completed.
[ Qingdao Sentury Tire Co.Ltd(002984) ] on the evening of March 17, 2022, the company announced that the number of stock options to be granted to incentive objects in the equity incentive plan was 20.687 million, accounting for 3.18% of the total share capital (650 million shares) of the company at the time of announcement of the draft incentive plan, of which the number of stock options granted for the first time was 1999.3 million, accounting for about 3.08% of the total share capital (650 million shares) of the company at the time of announcement of the draft incentive plan, Accounting for about 96.65% of the total equity granted this time; 694000 reserved rights and interests, accounting for about 0.11% of the total share capital (650 million shares) of the company at the time of announcement of the draft incentive plan, and the reserved part accounts for 3.35% of the total granted rights and interests. When the exercise conditions are met, each stock option granted to the incentive object has the right to purchase one share of the company’s shares at the exercise price during the exercise period.
The total number of shares granted by any incentive object participating in the incentive plan and still within the validity period of the incentive plan due to the company’s equity incentive plan shall not exceed 1% of the total share capital of the company at the time of announcement of the draft incentive plan. The total number of subject shares involved in all effective equity incentive plans shall not exceed 10% of the total share capital of the company.
[ Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) ] according to Zhuo Chuang information, the inventory of polyester filament on March 17 was 28.2 days, up 2.0 days month on month; Pta3’s inventory on June 18 was 3.261 million tons, down 81000 tons month on month. On March 18, the price of polyester filament FDY was 8500 yuan / ton, down 425 yuan / ton from March 11; On March 18, PTA price was 6000 yuan / ton, down 130 yuan / ton from March 11.
[ Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) ] on March 11, the company issued an announcement on the share repurchase plan of the company. The company plans to use its own funds to repurchase the company’s shares in the form of centralized bidding transaction for the conversion of convertible bonds issued by listed companies. The repurchase amount is no less than 1 billion yuan and no more than 2 billion yuan, and the repurchase price is no more than 22 yuan / share.
[ Jiangsu Eastern Shenghong Co.Ltd(000301) ] on March 14, the company released the performance express of 2021. During the reporting period, the company is expected to achieve a revenue of 51.641 billion yuan, an increase of 53.24% over the same period of the previous year; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 4.523 billion yuan, an increase of 49.9% over the same period last year
