Main points:
Banking stocks: industry index fell
From the Shenwan industry index, the banking industry index rose by – 0.22%, – 4.70%, – 1.51% this week, this month and year to date respectively, ranking 7th, 8th and 3rd among the 31 Shenwan industries.
On a weekly basis, the stock prices of Bank Of Chongqing Co.Ltd(601963) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Bank Of Communications Co.Ltd(601328) and Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) rose by 6.75%, 3.87%, 1.66% and 1.04% respectively. Monthly, the stock prices of Bank Of Chongqing Co.Ltd(601963) , Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) , Bank Of Communications Co.Ltd(601328) and Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) rose by 9.84%, 3.59%, 2.30% and 1.46% respectively. Since the beginning of the year, Bank Of Chengdu Co.Ltd(601838) , Bank Of Nanjing Co.Ltd(601009) , Bank Of Jiangsu Co.Ltd(600919) and Jiangsu Changshu Rural Commercial Bank Co.Ltd(601128) have increased by more than 10%.
Central bank operation and money market interest rate: Net withdrawal of money
The total amount of money put in this week was 140 billion yuan, the total amount returned was 50 billion yuan, and the net money put in was 90 billion yuan, an increase of 420 billion yuan compared with last week. Since the beginning of the month, 670 billion yuan of currency has been recovered.
On March 18, dr001 was 2.03%, down 4bps from last Friday. Dr007 was 2.18%, up 2bps compared with last Friday.
The overnight lending rate was 2.07%, down 2bps from last Friday. The 7-day lending rate was 2.36%, up 9bps from last Friday.
Interbank deposit certificate issuing interest rate
This week, the issuing interest rate of 1m interbank certificates of deposit increased, and the issuing interest rate of 3M and 6m interbank certificates of deposit decreased. On March 18, the issuing interest rates of 1m, 3M and 6m interbank certificates of deposit were 2.42%, 2.50% and 2.63% respectively, with changes of + 12bps, – 1bp and – 2bps respectively compared with last Friday.
China US Treasury bond yield: the term interest spread of China’s bonds narrowed and the term interest spread of US bonds widened
This week, the yields of 1y and 10Y treasury bonds increased, and the term spread narrowed. On March 18, the yields of 1y and 10Y treasury bonds were 2.11% and 2.79% respectively, which were + 2bps and basically flat compared with last Friday. The term spread was 0.68%, down 2bps from last Friday.
This week, the yields of 1y and 10Y US bonds increased, and the term spread widened. On March 18, the yields of 1y and 10Y US bonds were 1.29% and 2.14% respectively, with changes of + 7bps and + 14bps respectively compared with last Friday. The term spread was 0.85%, up 7bps from last Friday.
Us liquidity index: benchmark interest rate increased by 25bps
On March 16, the Federal Reserve announced that it would raise the target range of the federal funds rate from 25bps to 0.25% to 0.5%. It is expected to raise interest rates six more times before the end of the year.
(1) on March 17, the US secured overnight financing interest rate was 0.3%, up 25bps compared with last Friday. (2) The corporate option spread was 243.81% lower than that on Friday. (3) On March 18, the yield of US inflation index treasury bonds (TIPS) was – 0.72%, up 22bps from last Friday.
Investment advice
At the meeting of the finance committee, there are two points closely related to the stability expectations of banks: first, earnestly invigorate the economy in the first quarter, take the initiative to respond to monetary policy, and maintain a moderate growth in new loans. Second, all policies that have a significant impact on the capital market should be coordinated with the financial management department in advance to maintain the stability and consistency of policy expectations. Expected stability will help push the share price back to normal
Reasonable valuation.
Our long-standing recommendation is to avoid judging the total credit data and give a direct answer from the changes of credit structure and the micro incentives of banks: the policy supported microenterprises + personal loans + wealth management + asset quality is still the gold portfolio. Keep the recommendation order unchanged, Bank Of Ningbo Co.Ltd(002142) , Bank Of Hangzhou Co.Ltd(600926) , China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , Postal Savings Bank Of China Co.Ltd(601658) , Ping An Bank Co.Ltd(000001) .
Risk tips
The macro economy went down faster than expected.
