Market review: last week, the electrical equipment sector closed at 118923, down - 1.44%. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 325107, down - 1.77%; Shenzhen composite index closed at 1232865, down - 0.95%; The CSI 300 index closed at 4265.9, down - 0.94%; The gem index closed at 271379, up 1.81%.
In terms of sub sectors, the photovoltaic equipment sector fell - 2.59%; Wind power equipment sector fell - 6.56%, the largest decline; The battery sector rose 4.46%, with the largest increase; Power grid equipment sector fell - 5.2%; Motor sector rose 1.89%; Other power equipment sectors fell - 2.88%.
Investment suggestion: last week, the electrical equipment sector continued to adjust as a whole, and the index first suppressed and then increased with the market. The new energy vehicle sector bottomed out and rebounded. We believe that the current valuation of the photovoltaic sector is reasonable and the future growth of the sector is the most uncertain. In the global environment of high oil and gas prices, it is strongly recommended to actively layout the photovoltaic sector; The valuation of the new energy vehicle sector is at a stage low, and there may be rebound opportunities in the short term. It is suggested to pay attention to the opportunities of high nickel ternary and undervalued copper foil.
New energy: the export data of components in January and February increased by more than 110% year-on-year, confirming the previous prediction of high prosperity. We believe that in the short term, crude oil and natural gas prices will remain high, and the rise in traditional energy prices will help stimulate the new installed demand for new energy. At present, the probability of photovoltaic data in the first quarter is higher than expected. Looking forward to the follow-up, the new capacity of silicon material will continue to be released, and the supply side will be gradually abundant, which is expected to drive the growth of downstream demand. In the long run, the global PV installed capacity is expected to exceed 200GW in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of more than 30%. At present, there are investment opportunities in the whole PV sector. The order of segment segmentation is silicon battery silicon wafer module. It is recommended to actively layout companies with alpha.
Wind power: in the global environment of carbon emission reduction, it also plays an important role as photovoltaic, and the long-term trend is good. However, the short-term performance is affected by the price rise of upstream raw materials and the price reduction of downstream host machines, so it is difficult to achieve high growth. At present, the valuation is at a reasonable level. It is suggested to pay attention to the catalysis brought to the sector by the future bidding situation of the industry and the price trend of raw materials.
New energy vehicles: Chinese Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) vehicle manufacturers have successively announced price increases ranging from 3000 to 30000. According to statistics, nearly 20 new energy vehicle enterprises have announced price increases since March, involving nearly 40 models. Lithium carbonate prices remained high, while nickel prices fell, but remained high. In the short term, whether the midstream cost can be transmitted through the price rise of downstream car enterprises needs to further observe the sales volume data after the price rise. In the long term, due to the impact of lithium supply, the global sales growth may not be as expected, and the possibility of sector opportunities is low. It is suggested to pay attention to the opportunities of technology replacement and capacity tension. It is recommended that the domestic aluminum-plastic film sector may replace the accelerated aluminum-plastic film sector this year.
Power equipment: last week, international commodity prices remained stable as a whole, copper, aluminum and steel prices were consolidated at a high level, nickel prices fell, but remained at a high level, and stainless steel prices will rise in the short term, putting pressure on the cost of some electrical equipment. The callback of copper, aluminum and steel prices will help to stabilize the gross profit margin of equipment, but the subsequent price change trend is still difficult to predict and needs to be tracked.
The combination of this week week will combine the following combination of the combination of the week: Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy Co.Ltd(600732) Ming Yang Smart Energy Group Limited(601615) .
Risk warning: the risk that the growth rate of the industry is lower than expected; Risk of policy uncertainty; The risk of price decline due to fierce market competition.
