Core view
Market review this week. In the 11th week, the real estate sector index was stronger than the CSI 300 index and the gem index. The relative return of the real estate sector compared with the CSI 300 index was + 2.9%. The CSI 300 index closed at 426590, with a weekly increase of – 0.9%; The gem index closed at 271379, with a weekly increase of + 1.8%; The real estate sector index closed at 324530, with a weekly increase of + 2.0%.
Industry highlights this week. The National Bureau of statistics released the national real estate development and investment data from January to February 2022. The Shanghai headquarters of the central bank announced the balance of RMB loans in Shanghai in February 2022. The Ministry of Finance announced the real estate tax and the income from the transfer of state-owned land use right from January to February 2022. The Ministry of Finance said that it is not qualified to expand the pilot cities of real estate tax reform this year. The financial commission set a tone to boost market confidence. The national development and Reform Commission said that cities with a permanent resident population of less than 3 million have implemented the policy of comprehensively canceling the restrictions on settlement. In 2022, the first batch of centralized land supply will be carried out successively.
Sales of new houses decreased this week compared with last week, and sales of second-hand houses decreased compared with last week. In the 11th week, the sales of new houses in 29 major cities was 21000, a decrease of 10.9% compared with the 10th week; The sales of second-hand houses in 11 major cities was 8000 units, a decrease of 13.3% compared with the 10th week; Compared with the 10th week, the growth rates of new housing and second-hand housing transactions in first tier cities were – 7.9% and – 10.1% respectively; Compared with the 10th week, the growth rates of new housing and second-hand housing transactions in second tier cities were – 13.8% and – 19.0% respectively. The inventory of 15 major cities, first tier cities and second tier cities increased compared with last week, and the inventory and sales increased compared with last week. As of the 11th week, the inventory in 15 major cities was 1224000 sets, an increase of 3000 sets compared with the 10th week; The stock to sales ratio was 16.1 months, an increase of 0.4 months over the 10th week. The land market transfer heat this week was flat compared with last week. In week 11, a total of 1 piece of land was sold in 26 major cities. The amount of land transfer decreased. In the 11th week, the land transfer fee of 26 major cities was 210 million yuan, a decrease of 10 million yuan compared with the 10th week. The average premium rate was flat. In the 11th week, the average premium rate of land transactions in 26 major cities was 0.0%, unchanged from the 10th week. In week 11, the number of land auction in 26 big cities was 0.
Announcement of key companies Shenzhen Special Economic Zone Real Estate&Properties (Group).Co.Ltd(000029) , Yang Guang Co.Ltd(000608) , Shanghai Wanye Enterprises Co.Ltd(600641) , Beijing North Star Company Limited(601588) publish the annual report of 2021 Shenzhen Overseas Chinese Town Co.Ltd(000069) released sales data for February 2021 Citychamp Dartong Co.Ltd(600067) plans to issue 1 billion yuan of bonds.
Investment proposal and investment object
Following the sharp fluctuations in the market on Tuesday, more than three ministries and commissions said on Wednesday to stabilize the market. Among them, the Finance Committee of the State Council held a special meeting, which proposed to “timely study and put forward effective risk prevention and resolution response plans, and put forward supporting measures for transformation to a new development model”. Subsequently, the two sessions of the party, safe and the Ministry of finance also made corresponding statements. Among them, the Ministry of Finance said that “there are no conditions for expanding the pilot cities of real estate tax this year”. Combined with the collective statements of various departments, we believe that with the coordination of policies in the future, the credit crisis of real estate enterprises can be controlled. In terms of specific statements, we believe that the main way to resolve the debt crisis is to allow extension and promote mergers and acquisitions. Consolidate the responsibility of actual controllers, improve their willingness to repay debts, and encourage high-quality enterprises to participate in M & A. Combined with the fact that the MLF interest rate remained unchanged the previous day, we believe that regulators are not willing to resolve the problem entirely through demand stimulus. Based on this decision logic, the policy will eventually show an average force at both ends: the supply side will promote the problem real estate enterprises to sell projects at a significant discount, and the state-owned enterprises and high-quality private enterprises will take over the projects; On the demand side, some cities with little upward pressure on house prices can further relax regulation. The final result is that the owner’s equity of the problem real estate enterprises has been lost, the creditors have suffered a certain degree of loss on average (but the creditors have the order of priority and inferiority), and the resident Department has slowly increased a certain leverage (with a moderate interest rate cut to alleviate the pressure of residents’ principal and interest expenditure). In this framework, looking for marginal real estate enterprises is not a good strategy. Most marginal real estate enterprises will lose capital on a large scale and completely lose the ability to increase leverage in the future. We are optimistic about the first-line leaders with stable performance, and recommend Poly Real Estate ( Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , buy), China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) ( China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) , buy); Second tier leaders with flexible performance are recommended Gemdale Corporation(600383) ( Gemdale Corporation(600383) , buy) and Longhu group (00960, buy). We are optimistic about the purchase of property (at the same time, we recommend the purchase of property, and we are optimistic about the growth of property, and we recommend the purchase of property (at the same time), and the purchase of property (at the same time, we are optimistic about the growth of the industry).
Risk tips
Sales were significantly lower than expected. The counter cyclical policy was less than expected. Interest rates have risen significantly.
