[Key words this week]: the Federal Reserve raised interest rates and landed; Jin Wenhui stressed the need to carefully introduce contractionary policies; Terminal car companies set off a wave of price increases, and Tesla raised prices again; The Department of raw materials industry and other departments jointly held a symposium on the operation of the lithium industry and the price rise of upstream materials of power batteries; The commissioning time of Manono project in Africa was further postponed
Market review: 1. In terms of small metals, the sales volume of electric vehicles increased year-on-year in February, the industry boom continued to rise, and the high boom of rare earth lithium cobalt in the upstream of new energy vehicles remained: 1) lithium carbonate, the Department of raw materials industry and other departments held a symposium on the price rise of upstream materials of power batteries. The upstream and downstream short-term game sentiment was heavy, the spot price remained stable, and the futures market fluctuated greatly; 2) In terms of rare earths, the quotation of praseodymium and neodymium oxide fell 4.7% this week. 2. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first time, and the financial commission of the State Council stressed the need to carefully introduce contractive policies. China's foreign policies showed differentiation: 1) base metals, LME, aluminum and copper rose and fell by - 2.6% and 2.0% respectively; 2) The real yield of ten-year US bonds increased from - 0.94% → - 0.72%, Comex gold closed at US $1929.3/oz, down 2.81% month on month, and SHFE gold closed at 395.9 yuan / g, down 2.19% month on month. 3. A shares fell overall this week. Shenwan nonferrous metals index closed at 527357 points, down 2.90% month on month, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.13 percentage points. The rise and fall of new metal and non-metallic materials, rare metals, industrial metals and gold were - 1.28%, - 2.33%, - 4.12% and - 7.20% respectively.
Macro "three factors" summary: China has made further efforts to stabilize growth in an all-round way, and the gold stability meeting stressed the need to carefully introduce contraction policies; The Federal Reserve raised interest rates; CPI in the euro zone rebounded year-on-year in February, and the epidemic warmed up. Specifically: 1) in China, the year-on-year industrial added value and the cumulative year-on-year fixed asset investment from January to February exceeded expectations. This week, it was disclosed that the year-on-year industrial added value of China from January to February was 12.80% (the previous value was 3.86%, the expected value was 3.07%); From January to February, the cumulative fixed asset investment was 12.20% year-on-year (the previous value was 4.90%, and the expected value was 5.12%); From January to February, the total retail sales of social consumer goods totaled 6.70% year-on-year, and 6.70% year-on-year in the same month (the previous value was 1.70%, expected to be 4.51%). 2) In the United States, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, and producer prices rose strongly in February. The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting opened as scheduled, and decided to raise the federal benchmark interest rate range by 25 basis points to 0.25% - 0.50%, in line with expectations. 3) In February, the CPI of the euro area picked up year-on-year, and the epidemic situation was heating up. In February, the CPI of the euro area was 0.90% (the previous value was 0.30%, the expected value was 0.90%) and 5.90% (the previous value was 5.10%, the expected value was 5.80%) year-on-year; In February, the core CPI of the euro zone was 0.50% month on month (previous value - 0.90%, expected 0.50%) and 2.70% year-on-year (previous value 2.30%, expected 2.70%); This week, the United Kingdom, Germany and France added 465600 covid-19 confirmed cases per day, an increase of 115600 cases compared with last week, and the epidemic is heating up. 4) On the whole, the global manufacturing industry recorded pmi53.5 in February 4. Up 2.0 month on month; Here we maintain the judgment that the global economy has entered the downturn stage.
Base metals: a race between China's steady growth and the contraction of overseas liquidity
During the week, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, which was in line with market expectations. The interest rate meeting emphasized the possible uncertainty caused by recent geopolitical events and additional inflationary pressure, and established the tone of monetary policy tightening; Although China's economy from January to February released by the Bureau of statistics has improved almost across the board, greatly exceeding market expectations, it deviates from the medium and micro high-frequency data since the beginning of the year. The Finance Committee of the State Council held a special meeting to state that it should carefully introduce contractive policies, and proposed that new loans should maintain moderate growth and stabilize market expectations. It is expected that bulk commodities will still have some support with the support of China's relatively loose monetary policy. Specifically, LME copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin and nickel rose or fell by 2.0%, - 2.6%, - 2.2%, 0.2%, - 4.8% and - 23.1% respectively this week. Prices rose or fell.
1. For electrolytic copper, under the concentrated outbreak of the epidemic in some parts of China, the delivery efficiency of Chinese smelters has been significantly reduced. Although the downstream is also disturbed by the epidemic to a certain extent, on the whole, the impact of supply is greater than demand, and China's inventory is still in the state of destocking. On Wednesday, the social inventory of electrolytic copper was 164000 tons, and the weekly inventory was 42000 tons.
2. For electrolytic aluminum, at the supply side, the early production capacity of Yunnan and other places was gradually released within the week, but the epidemic had an impact on the transportation of upstream and downstream enterprises; On the demand side, the performance of the mainstream consumer side of electrolytic aluminum in China is temporarily stable, and the operating rate of aluminum profiles, aluminum sectors, strips and foils continues to pick up. According to the market price of real-time raw materials, the real-time cost of electrolytic aluminum this week was 17674 yuan / ton, down 0.34%, and the profit per ton of aluminum was 3216 yuan, up 16.90% month on month. This week, China's aluminum ingot inventory in eight places totaled 1.089 million tons, and 53000 tons went to the warehouse every week.
3. For zinc ingots, overseas, the French government announced that it would bear more than half of the increased natural gas and power expenditure of enterprises, and the French Audy smelter will resume production in the next few weeks. However, due to the high energy price, it is unable to return to full production at present, and energy can still provide overseas fundamental support until the Russian Ukrainian problem is fundamentally solved; In China, the epidemic has a certain impact on the transportation of upstream and downstream enterprises. The total inventory of zinc ingots in seven places this week was 276200 tons, and the weekly inventory was 9000 tons.
Upstream lithium battery raw materials: the prosperity of the global new energy industry continues to rise, the electric vehicle market in China, the United States and Europe resonates, and the upward trend of upstream raw material prices continues to strengthen:
1. Affected by the sharp rise in the price of raw materials, Tesla and other car companies started the price rise tide. Affected by the rising cost of raw materials, the decline of subsidies and the shortage of chips, nearly 20 new energy vehicles have announced price increases since March, involving nearly 40 models. On March 15, the price of some models of Tesla Model3 and modely increased again (the last price increase was on March 10), with a price increase range of 1800020000 yuan. In the follow-up, we will focus on whether the transmission of the price increase to consumers is smooth.
2. The Department of raw materials industry and other departments jointly held a symposium on the operation of the lithium industry and the price rise of upstream materials of power batteries, and the price operated stably. This week, the Department of raw materials industry and the first Department of equipment industry jointly held a symposium on the operation of lithium industry and the rise in the price of upstream materials of power batteries. The meeting required that upstream and downstream enterprises in the industrial chain should strengthen the connection between supply and demand, work together to form a long-term and stable strategic cooperative relationship, jointly guide the rational return of lithium salt price, strengthen efforts to ensure market supply, and better support the healthy development of strategic emerging industries such as Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automobile, The upstream and downstream game sentiment was obvious. Some traders shipped at low prices, and the price in Wuxi fell 5.7% month on month. We believe that more than 70% of the global lithium resources are concentrated overseas, the supply and demand are still tight, and the price does not have the risk of significant correction. It is expected that the price of Q2 demand will operate stably in the off-season, and there are still further upward risks in the third and fourth quarters. At present, it does not matter how high the lithium price can rise for the lithium sector. What matters is where the lithium price can be stabilized and whether the transmission from terminal vehicle enterprises to consumers is smooth, At present, the terminal demand is still relatively optimistic.
3. With the tightening of raw materials, the price of cobalt may rise further.
1) On the price side, the quotations of MB cobalt (standard grade) and MB cobalt (alloy grade) increased by 2.9% and 2.9% month on month respectively; China's metal cobalt, cobalt sulfate and cobalt trioxide rose 0.6%, 3.0% and 1.6% respectively. 2) In terms of supply and demand, the inventory of intermediate products remains low, the delay of shipping schedule still exists, the supply of raw materials remains tight, the demand for new energy continues to increase, and the price is expected to rise further.
4. Reshaping the pattern of rare earth permanent magnet industry. 1) On the spot side, following the interview with the Ministry of industry and information technology, the market was in a strong wait-and-see mood this week, and the enthusiasm for downstream inquiry was poor. The quotation of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in China fell by 3.6% to 1065000 yuan / ton; The price of dysprosium oxide decreased by 3.2%, and the price of terbium oxide decreased by 2.6%. We believe that under the current supply and demand pattern, prices do not have the risk of falling sharply. 2) On the demand side, affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the output of Nd-Fe-B enterprises in February was 20050 tons, a month on month decrease of 17.79% and a year-on-year increase of 14.60%.
5. Nickel: LME nickel closing event landed, and the nickel price gradually returned to the fundamentals. On March 15, Castle Peak Group issued a statement that the company had reached a silent agreement with a consortium composed of creditors of futures banks. During the period, the bank agreed not to close the position of Castle Peak or add margin, announcing that the position closing event was officially over. LME nickel officially resumed trading this week. LME nickel closed at US $36900 / ton, down 23.15% month on month.
Investment suggestion: maintain the "overweight" rating of the industry
1. For base metals, China's economic work in 2022 is set to be "stable". It is expected that the follow-up steady growth policies will be introduced continuously to support the confidence of base metal demand. However, from a global perspective, 1) changes in the structure before, during and after the outbreak of overseas economic demand, and 2) the Federal Reserve raised interest rates this week, but the subsequent tightening trend of overseas liquidity remains unchanged, which still suppresses the demand for base metals. Look for structural opportunities brought by supply change in non directional assets.
2. For the upstream raw materials of new energy, such as rare earth magnetic materials, lithium cobalt copper foil and aluminum foil, the short-term prosperity is still strong, the general direction of the medium and long-term three-year prosperity upward cycle will not change, and the industrial prosperity is the most clear.
Core marks: 1) core marks: 1) new energy vehicle industry chain: 1) new energy vehicle industry chain: 1) new energy vehicle industry chain: 1) new energy vehicle industry chain: (1) 1) that '' ''' \ , Yantai Zhenghai Magnetic Material Co.Ltd(300224) , Jl Mag Rare-Earth Co.Ltd(300748) , Earth-Panda Advanced Magnetic Material Co.Ltd(688077) , Jiangsu Dingsheng New Material Joint-Stock Co.Ltd(603876) , Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) , Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) etc. 2) Base metal: Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) , Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Tianshan Aluminum Group Co.Ltd(002532) , Sunstone Development Co.Ltd(603612) , Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co.Ltd(000630) , etc. 3) Precious metals: Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) , Shengda Resources Co.Ltd(000603) etc.
Risk tips: macroeconomic fluctuation, import and environmental protection policy risk, gold price fluctuation risk, lower than expected risk of new energy vehicle sales, lower than expected risk of premise assumption of supply and demand calculation, etc.
