Key investment points
Weekly view:
Many ministries and commissions emphasized the resolution of real estate risks: on March 16, the special meeting of the financial stability and Development Committee of the State Council stressed the need to timely study and put forward effective risk prevention and resolution solutions for real estate enterprises. In this regard, the central bank proposed that monetary policy should take the initiative to respond, and new loans should maintain a moderate growth; The cbcirc mentioned encouraging institutions to carry out M & A loans in a stable and orderly manner, focusing on supporting high-quality real estate enterprises to merge and acquire high-quality projects of difficult real estate enterprises; The CSRC stated that it would continue to support the rational financing of the real economy, actively cooperate with relevant departments, and effectively resolve the risks of real estate enterprises. The contents of the documents issued by multiple departments reflect the continuity with the policies of the two sessions. We believe that in order to resolve industry risks, the reasonable loan and financing needs of real estate enterprises will be met on the capital side; In particular, high-quality real estate enterprises are expected to benefit from M & a loan support and further improve market share. On the sales side, the policy will continue to support the reasonable demand for house purchase, so as to help real estate enterprises smoothly realize sales collection.
Three places completed the first round of centralized land supply in 2022: 1) on March 18, the first round of centralized land supply in Qingdao ended, and 15 of the 16 plots were sold, of which 12 plots were sold at the reserve price; 2) On March 17, the first round of centralized land supply in Hefei ended, and 15 of the 19 lands reached the top; 3) On March 17, the first round of centralized land supply in Fuzhou ended, and only 12 of the 18 land were sold, with an overall premium rate of about 4%. Hefei has lowered the threshold of land auction, reduced the allocation of construction, improved the land acquisition profit of real estate enterprises, and the land market has warmed up; On the contrary, the starting price of some plots in Fuzhou is high, while the plots in Qingdao are mostly located in the suburbs, and the enthusiasm of enterprises to acquire land is low. We believe that the differentiation of the land auction results of the three places reflects the current land acquisition logic of real estate enterprises, improving the land acquisition profits of real estate enterprises, and increasing high-quality plots in the core area to ensure the de commercialization of sales, which is the key to boost the land acquisition enthusiasm of real estate enterprises. We believe that in 2022, the real estate sector will usher in investment opportunities with continuous improvement of policies and continuous optimization of the competition pattern of real estate enterprises. Three main lines are recommended: 1) leading real estate enterprises under the structural differentiation of financing environment: Green City China, Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , China Vanke Co.Ltd(000002) ; 2) Regional deep ploughing private enterprises: Hangzhou Binjiang Real Estate Group Co.Ltd(002244) ; 3) High rated and stable private enterprises: Xuhui holding group, Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) .
Industry tracking
Sales review (03.12-03.18): 33 key monitoring cities, with a total transaction area of 2428000 m2, down 10.3% from last week; In 2022, a total of 33.91 million square meters were sold, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 38.3%. Among them, 454000 square meters were sold in first tier cities, down 9.6% from last week, and 6.845 million square meters were sold in 2022, down 29.6% year-on-year; Second tier cities sold 1.207 million square meters, down 13.1% from last week. In 2022, a total of 16.596 million square meters were sold, down 21.9% year-on-year; The volume of transactions in the third tier cities was 766000 square meters, down 5.9% from last week. The cumulative volume of transactions in 2022 was 10.47 million square meters, down 56.4% year-on-year.
Land supply (03.07-03.13): the planned construction area of land and homestead supply in Baicheng is 7.39 million m2. In 2022, the cumulative supply of planned construction area is 66.15 million m2, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 54.7% and a supply-demand ratio of 1.26. In terms of land listing price, the average listing floor price of land supplied by Baicheng is 5897 yuan / m2, and the average listing price in recent four weeks is 7393 yuan / m2, an increase of 4.1% month on month and 160% year-on-year.
Land transaction (03.07-03.13): the planned construction area of residential land transaction in Baicheng is 1.35 million m3, with a cumulative transaction of 52.34 million m2 in 2022, a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 67.1%. In terms of land transaction floor price and premium rate, the average transaction floor price of residential land in Baicheng was 4291 yuan / m2, an increase of 12.5% month on month, a year-on-year decrease of 3.1%, and the overall premium rate was 3.4%. In 2022, the average floor price was 3983 yuan / m2, a year-on-year decrease of 14.5%, and the premium rate was 3.4%, a decrease of 13.8 percentage points compared with the same period last year.
Risk warning event: the financing environment is tighter than expected; The regulatory policy was tightened more than expected.
