Zhou Du’s core view:
E-commerce:
The epidemic situation in many places in China has rebounded, and the online consumer demand of residents may continue to increase. In order to ensure sufficient materials for residents, all enterprise platforms have successively taken emergency measures. HEMA has restarted the emergency measures of “sharing employees” and launched the community order collection and distribution service in the suburbs of Shanghai; If you are hungry, give the blue knight care and guarantee measures, such as diagnosis / isolation, customs care funds and epidemic prevention materials, so as to ensure the physical and mental health of riders; Jingdong supermarket gives businesses in areas affected by the epidemic a maximum reduction or exemption of storage fees for three months. Real time retail and community group buying may benefit: self operated models of real-time retail e-commerce, such as daily excellent fresh food, Ding Dong shopping, box horse, meituan shopping, etc; Platform modes, such as Jingdong home, taoxianda, hungry, meituan flash purchase, etc; Community group purchase, such as meituan optimization, buying more vegetables, panning vegetables, etc. Suggested attention: JD group and HEMA (Alibaba).
Traditional retail:
Bailian Group Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) makes full efforts to provide convenience services for Shanghai residents through the “Bailian home” and “medicine home” businesses of “I Bailian” on the online platform; In terms of fresh food supply, Lianhua, a subsidiary of Bailian, maintains active contact with multiple source bases to ensure sustainable supply from the two aspects of “variety” and “price” Jiajiayue Group Co.Ltd(603708) supermarkets spare no effort to ensure the citizens’ home demand from the aspects of continuous supply of people’s livelihood commodities, first-time distribution of materials and commodity quality and safety. Recently, the epidemic situation in China has been repeated, local control has become increasingly strict, residents have hoarded goods, and the sales of fresh, frozen food, prefabricated vegetables and other categories may increase. Pay attention to the repair opportunities of head supermarkets with the advantage of fresh supply chain. It is suggested to pay attention to: Yonghui Superstores Co.Ltd(601933) , Jiajiayue Group Co.Ltd(603708) .
Gold jewelry:
Gold jewelry maintained a high outlook. From January to February 2022, the total zero growth rate of gold and silver jewelry society was 63.9 billion yuan, an increase of 19.5% year-on-year, with a growth rate of + 19.7 PCT month on month, far exceeding the zero growth rate of the whole society in the same period (6.7%). In the short term, the demand depends on the effectiveness of epidemic prevention and control and the recovery of offline passenger flow; In the long run, the upgrading of the ancient process on the product side will stimulate terminal consumption, and the reform of changing the one-time price of gold to the weight of gold on the price side will promote the transparency of the pricing mechanism. With the head brand actively expanding the sinking market, the market concentration is expected to continue to improve. It is suggested to pay attention to: Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) , Chow Tai Fook, Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) .
Market review last week:
Last week (202203.14202203.18), the retail trade (CITIC) index fell 2.63%, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.69pct. Among the 30 first-class industries of CITIC, the commerce and retail sector ranked 25th. Among the sub industries in the retail sector, supermarkets and convenience stores ranked top in terms of growth, with an increase of 2.46%, while other sub industries fell. The quantile of PE in commercial retail industry is greater than that in Shanghai and Shenzhen 300. At present, the PE (TTM) of commercial retail industry is 85.63, which is 96.87% from small to large since 2005; Shanghai and Shenzhen 300pe (TTM) is 12.32, with a quantile of 34.09%.
Industry dynamic tracking:
E-commerce: “JD service +” landed its first direct sales outlet in Beijing; Vid-19 is the fastest self-test result for e-commerce; HEMA restarted the “shared employees” new community centralized order distribution service; Jingdong supermarket promised to reduce the storage fee for up to three months for businesses in areas affected by the epidemic. Traditional retail: Jiajiayue Group Co.Ltd(603708) supermarket fully protects the needs of citizens; Bailian Group has made great efforts to protect Shanghai citizens. Shanghai No.1 Pharmacy Co.Ltd(600833) has reached cooperation with Nanjing Vazyme Biotech Co.Ltd(688105) in Nanjing; Naixue’s tea has been greatly reduced, and the first “relaxed” series is less than 20 yuan.
Investment suggestions:
Maintain the “overweight” rating of the commercial retail industry. Investment main line 1: gold jewelry continues its recovery trend and high outlook. It is recommended to pay attention to Chow Tai Seng Jewellery Company Limited(002867) , Chow Tai Fook, Lao Feng Xiang Co.Ltd(600612) . Investment mainline 2: common prosperity background, superimposed traffic peaking status quo, Internet enterprises are facing fierce competition, it is suggested to pay attention to Jingdong group, which has low regulatory risk, focuses on performance efficiency with retail as the king, and builds a moat with supply chain advantages. Investment main line 3: in the traditional and new retail field, the business form of warehousing members is in full swing. It is suggested to pay attention to the positive layout of warehouse store business forms such as HEMA (Alibaba), Yonghui Superstores Co.Ltd(601933) , Jiajiayue Group Co.Ltd(603708) .
Risk tips:
Repeated outbreaks; Macroeconomic depression; Industry competition intensifies.
