The Federal Reserve revised down its economic growth forecast and Lun nickel trading resumed in the middle of the week
The Fed’s interest rate meeting in March announced a 25 basis point increase in interest rates and lowered its economic growth forecast to 2.8%. There are still risks and high uncertainties in the economic outlook. This week, after Qingshan group announced that it had reached a silent agreement with the syndicate, LME nickel trading resumed, and its price continued to fall. Other industrial metals rose or fell, with LME copper rising 1.20% to close at US $10306 / ton; LME aluminum fell – 2.73% to close at US $3388 / ton; LME lead fell – 3.42% to close at US $2246 / ton; LME zinc rose 0.63% to close at US $3839 / ton; LME tin fell – 4.49% to close at US $42120 / ton; LME nickel fell – 23.15% to close at US $36915 / ton. It is suggested to pay attention to Yunnan Copper Co.Ltd(000878) , Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co.Ltd(000630) , Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) , Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) .
Ensuring supply has become the tone of the lithium industry, and the tight supply and demand has promoted the high price operation
According to the disclosure of the Ministry of industry and information technology, many departments organized a symposium on the operation of the lithium industry this week. The meeting required that upstream and downstream enterprises in the industrial chain should strengthen the connection between supply and demand, jointly guide the rational return of lithium salt price, strengthen efforts to ensure market supply and support the healthy development of new energy vehicle industry. However, the supply increment is limited in the short term, and the tension between supply and demand will continue. It is expected that the price of lithium salt will continue to operate at a high level. This week, the price of lithium carbonate was basically the same as last week; Lithium hydroxide rose slightly by 2.49% to close at 493916 yuan / ton. It is recommended to pay attention to Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) .
Steady growth has achieved initial results, and the epidemic has repeatedly affected production and transportation
According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the year-on-year growth rate of generalized infrastructure investment from January to February 2022 reached 8.6%; From January to February, the investment in real estate development was 1449.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, which was significantly improved compared with December last year. Benefiting from the gradual implementation of the steady growth policy, China’s industrial metal demand is expected to continue to rise. At the same time, the epidemic situation in China has occurred repeatedly, which may have a certain impact on metal production and transportation in the short term. This week, Shanghai Futures Exchange copper rose 0.97% to close at 72890 yuan / ton; Aluminum rose 4.13% to close at 22590 yuan / ton; Lead rose 0.07% to close at 15235 yuan / ton; Zinc fell – 0.25% to close at 25425 yuan / ton; Tin fell – 0.51% to close at 333530 yuan / ton; Nickel fell – 1.16% to close at 219900 yuan / ton. It is recommended to pay attention to Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) , Tongling Nonferrous Metals Group Co.Ltd(000630) , Zhejiang Hailiang Co.Ltd(002203) , Yunnan Aluminium Co.Ltd(000807) , etc.
US Federal Reserve starts interest rate hike cycle, Russia and Ukraine ease and stabilize market sentiment
The Federal Reserve announced an interest rate increase of 25 basis points at its interest rate meeting in March, and the dot matrix shows that interest rates may be increased seven times this year, but the chairman of the Federal Reserve also said that the duration of high inflation will be higher than expected; At the same time, the Russian Ukrainian negotiations showed signs of easing again, and the market pessimism was repaired. This week, spot gold in London fell – 3.37% to close at US $192120/oz, while the US dollar index fell – 0.91% to close at 98.23; COMEX gold fell – 3.20% to close at US $192930 per ounce this week, while Comex silver fell – 3.92% to close at US $25.09 per ounce. Considering that the market has digested the expectation of raising interest rates to a certain extent, and the duration of high inflation will be prolonged, it is expected that the price of gold will fluctuate.
Risk tips: geopolitical risks, repeated epidemics and lower than expected downstream demand.
