New home sales: how to understand the caliber difference?
Data: 1. Bureau of Statistics: from January to February, the transaction area of commercial housing was – 9.6% year-on-year, and the sales amount was – 19.3% year-on-year, significantly better than the expected level of the market; 2. Urban high frequency: the cumulative transaction area from January to February is equivalent to 100.3% and 150.0% of the transaction volume in the same period of 2019 and 2020, and the cumulative year-on-year under the high base is – 30.22%; 3. Top 100: from January to February 2022, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of sales amount and sales area of top 100 real estate enterprises (company comparable caliber) were – 42.9% and – 42.0% respectively. The sales amount in a single month increased negatively year-on-year for 8 consecutive months, and the decline expanded for 5 consecutive months.
Year on year growth trend: Bureau of statistics caliber high frequency caliber Top 100 caliber. Since the beginning of the year, the growth rate of high-frequency data in key cities has turned downward again, which may mean that the current sales are still an impulsive market rather than a trend improvement. Sales are basically responsive to the policy, and there is no obvious passivation. However, considering the limited implementation of urban policies, the sustainability of sales improvement is still in doubt.
Fluctuation range of sales growth: Top 100 caliber high frequency caliber Bureau of statistics caliber. We believe that the main reasons for the large difference in caliber are: the comprehensiveness of the Bureau of statistics is much higher than that of other caliber, and the lag of the third and fourth tier cities has further stabilized the growth rate; Non residential real estate sales improved significantly, driving the overall growth rate higher than expected; The data of the Bureau of statistics may be smooth to some extent due to the rhythm of online signing; Key cities fluctuate greatly due to the rhythm of market supply and policy expectations; The statistical caliber of the top 100 data is not overlapped, and the same rise and fall brought by full caliber statistics; In the top 100 statistics, some real estate enterprises, especially unlisted real estate enterprises, may have false data.
Second hand housing: is the transaction warming up at the same time?
Since October 2021, the year-on-year growth rate of second-hand housing transactions in key cities has also improved marginally. Although the improvement is less than that of new houses, the overall trend is consistent with the new house data, which can also prove the authenticity of the expected improvement on the demand side. Among them, the first and second tier cities took the lead in the inflection point, and the year-on-year growth rate is significantly better than that of the third and fourth tier cities, indicating that there is also a lag in the demand recovery of the second-hand housing market from the first and second tier to the third and fourth tier.
Price: is the performance of volume and price consistent?
From January to February, the national average sales price of commercial housing was – 10.7% year-on-year, and the national average sales price of commercial housing was – 9.7% year-on-year, both of which were the lowest year-on-year growth rate since 2000. It reflects that real estate enterprises continue to strengthen marketing, exchange price for quantity and strengthen sales collection. The average transaction price of the Bureau of statistics is greatly affected by the transaction structure and cannot reflect the real price expectation of the current market. Whether in terms of the number of cities with rising house prices or the month on month increase of house prices, the new house and second-hand house prices in key cities have also shown a marginal improvement trend since 2021q4, and the overall performance is consistent with the trading volume.
Is there a rebound in confidence expectations?
According to the survey data of anjuke and Zhongyuan Real estate, the confidence of buyers and sellers in the real estate market has rebounded significantly since November 21. We believe that although there is still a wait-and-see mood in the market in terms of trading behavior, the recovery of confidence still indicates the gradual improvement of market expectations, which is consistent with the trading volume and price data.
Grasp the beta of loose policy structure and the alpha of M & A
Investment suggestion: the future industry beta depends on the adjustment of industry structure, the pace of capacity clearing and the strength of policy support; Alpha focuses on the repair of the balance sheet and profit margin of key real estate enterprises by M & A, the accuracy of countercyclical plus leverage, and the long-term excavation of the value of housing scenarios. Continuous recommendation: 1) high quality leaders: Gemdale Corporation(600383) , Poly Developments And Holdings Group Co.Ltd(600048) , Vanke A, Longhu group, China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) ; 2) High quality growth: Jinke Property Group Co.Ltd(000656) , Seazen Holdings Co.Ltd(601155) , Jiangsu Zhongnan Construction Group Co.Ltd(000961) , Xuhui holding group; 3) Quality property management: Country Garden service, China Merchants Property Operation & Service Co.Ltd(001914) , poly property, Xuhui Yongsheng service.
Risk warning: industry credit risk spread; The decline of industry sales exceeded expectations; Because the implementation of urban policies is less than expected
