Investment summary:
Talk every Monday: a number of policies in the government work report are good for the textile and clothing industry
Event: the government work report has a number of policies conducive to the development of the textile and garment industry: (1) promote the continuous recovery of consumption and normalize the epidemic prevention and control. (2) Promoting multilateral economic and trade cooperation will contribute to the growth of export volume of textile and garment industry. (3) Promote the development of digital economy and accelerate the development of e-commerce. The epidemic has changed people's consumption habits, making the online sales channel of textile and garment industry more important.
Normalize epidemic prevention and control, promote the continuous recovery of consumption, and promote the improvement of textile and clothing terminal retail. The government work report reviewed the major achievements of coordinating epidemic prevention and control and socio-economic development in 2021, and pointed out the need to normalize epidemic prevention and control, promote the deep integration of Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) consumption, promote the recovery of life service consumption, and develop new consumption formats and new models. In 2021, the clothing consumption expenditure will gradually recover, and the decline rate of the ratio of per capita clothing consumption expenditure of national residents to per capita consumption expenditure will slow down.
In 2021, the retail sales of textile and clothing recovered and exceeded the pre epidemic level. With the normalization trend of epidemic prevention and control and the gradual recovery of residents' consumer confidence and willingness, the retail sales of clothing, shoes and hats, needles and textiles rebounded rapidly in early 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 6.69% and 3.06% compared with 2019, exceeding the pre epidemic level.
Deepening multilateral economic and trade cooperation is conducive to the export of textiles and clothing. The government work report pointed out the need to further deepen multilateral economic and trade cooperation, expand high-level opening to the outside world, and promote the steady development of foreign trade and foreign investment. With the effective control of the epidemic situation in China, the export of textile and clothing has continued to recover. In 2021, China's textile and garment exports reached 315.7 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 8.34%, a record high. Among them, the export of clothing was 170.45 billion US dollars, an increase of 24% over 2020.
Shenzhou International, a leading enterprise in the textile and clothing industry, has achieved growth in sales in various markets. China's epidemic control is better than that of foreign countries. The stable development of foreign trade and foreign investment will be conducive to China's textile and garment export. In the first half of 2021, the sales of Shenzhou International, a leading textile export enterprise, in various foreign markets increased one after another, with a year-on-year increase of 9.51%.
Promoting the development of digital economy and accelerating the digital transformation of garment industry will contribute to the development of e-commerce in textile and garment industry. Under the influence of the epidemic in the past two years, the online sales of leading garment enterprises are in an upward trend. From 2021q1 to Q3, Li Ning's online sales increased by 47.46% year-on-year, and Anta's online sales increased by 33.49% year-on-year.
Li Ning, Anta, Senma and other companies all pay attention to the layout of e-commerce platforms. E-commerce is the development trend in the future. The reasonable layout of online channels will bring better development space for garment enterprises. Leading enterprises in the industry have arranged major e-commerce platforms and occupied the proportion of online sales through live delivery mode.
Optimistic about the favorable policies, the industry is basically oriented to good leading enterprises. With the recovery of China's economy and the integration of Wuxi Online Offline Communication Information Technology Co.Ltd(300959) consumption in the textile and garment industry, it is optimistic that the leading enterprises in the industry will further expand their market share. Recommended concern: Anta Sports 2020 HK, Li Ning (2331. HK), Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) ( Huali Industrial Group Company Limited(300979) . SZ), Biem.L.Fdlkk Garment Co.Ltd(002832) ( Biem.L.Fdlkk Garment Co.Ltd(002832) . SZ).
Market review (March 14-march 18):
Among the Shenwan level industries, the light industry manufacturing industry fell by 2.28% this week, ranking 18th among Shenwan 31 level-1 industries, outperforming the market. Among the sub sectors, the packaging and printing sector performed better, down 1.08%, and the papermaking sector performed poorly, down 3.64%; The textile and clothing industry fell 3.11% this week, ranking 25th among Shenwan's 31 primary industries, outperforming the market. Among the sub sectors, the clothing and home textile sector fell 2.69%, the textile manufacturing sector fell 2.42% and the jewelry sector fell 5.79%.
Industry data tracking:
Furniture: the price of TDI this week is lower than that of last week, and the price of MDI is lower than that of last week.
Papermaking: according to Zhuo Chuang information, in terms of pulp, on March 18, the market price of coniferous pulp was 686518 yuan / ton, down 5.97% from last Friday; The market price of broad-leaved pulp was 619318 yuan / ton, up 0.63% from last Friday; The market price of natural color pulp is 645000 yuan / ton, up 0.26% from last Friday; The market price of chemical mechanical pulp was 530000 yuan / ton, unchanged from last Friday. In terms of packaging paper, on March 18, the market price of corrugated paper was 376875 yuan / ton, up 0.08% from last Friday; The market price of white cardboard was 639000 yuan / ton, up 0.16% from last Friday. In terms of cultural printing paper, on March 18, the market price of double offset paper was 622500 yuan / ton, up 0.81% from last Friday; In terms of household paper, the market price on March 18 was 701667 yuan / ton, up 1.94% from last Friday.
Textile and clothing: on March 18, the price of cotton was 2265538 yuan / ton, down 0.11% from last week; The price of yarn has fallen, and the price of polyester has fallen.
Investment strategy:
Recently, the policy margin of the real estate industry has been relaxed. We believe that we can pay attention to the home sector in the near future. It is suggested to pay attention to [ Oppein Home Group Inc(603833) ], [ Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) ]; It is suggested to pay attention to [ Jason Furniture (Hangzhou) Co.Ltd(603816) ], [ Xlinmen Furniture Co.Ltd(603008) ].
Risk tips: raw material price fluctuation risk and exchange rate fluctuation risk.
