The overall market fell, with the semiconductor index down 1.25%.
Last week (2022 / 03 / 142022 / 03 / 18), the overall market fell, and the semiconductor index fell 1.25%. Among them: semiconductor design – 0.6%, semiconductor manufacturing – 5.5%, semiconductor packaging – 2.0%, semiconductor materials – 1.9%, semiconductor equipment + 2.3%, power semiconductor + 2.0%. Last week, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose by 9.16% and the Taiwan Semiconductor Index rose by 1.02% last week. As of last week (2022 / 03 / 18), the total market value of A-share semiconductor companies had reached 3601.4 billion yuan, with a chain comparison of – 2.05%, corresponding to 62 times the overall PE in 2022 (Note: PE is the statistical data according to Zhongtai Securities Co.Ltd(600918) Figure 5).
The extended delivery cycle of 22q1 reflects the continuous high prosperity of the industry
The delivery cycle of all kinds of chips in 22q1 is generally more than 12 weeks, and it continues to extend compared with 21q4. At the same time, the price also shows a general upward trend. We compared the delivery cycles of various chips 21q2, 21q3, 21q4 and 22q1. The normal delivery cycle of analog chips is 12-20 weeks, and currently it is 12-52 weeks; The normal delivery cycle of connecting chips is 12-16 weeks, and currently it is 18-52 weeks; The normal delivery cycle of storage is 6-14 weeks, and currently it is 12-54 weeks; The normal delivery cycle of power devices is 6-12 weeks, and currently it is 16-52 weeks. This week, Infineon foundry Han Lei announced that it would increase its quotation for Infineon in an all-round way. The three major silicon wafer factories in Taiwan also set off a wave of price increases. Superimposed on the external production fluctuations, including the impact of the magnitude 7.4 earthquake in Japan on March 16, the tension between global semiconductor supply and demand may be further exacerbated.
A strong earthquake with a magnitude of 7.4 occurred in Japan, and the fluctuation of peripheral production promoted the imbalance between semiconductor supply and demand
According to Japanese media reports, on the evening of March 16, a strong earthquake with a magnitude of 7.4 occurred off the east coast of Honshu, Japan. Relevant semiconductor companies near Fukushima, Japan include sumco (silicon chip), shinyue chemical (silicon chip), Renesas Electronics (Automotive semiconductor), Mitsui chemical (semiconductor tape), Sony (CIS), Murata (MLCC), etc. The Japanese earthquake may lead to the disorder of factory production and further tension on the supply situation of automobile MCU / analog chip, NAND flash, photoresist and silicon chip industries that are already in short supply. On the whole, China’s semiconductor companies have seized the opportunity of rapid domestic substitution under the unstable global supply situation in the past 21 years. At present, we are still optimistic about the localization opportunities brought by the peripheral environment.
1) Renesas (the world’s top 3 automotive MCU and analog manufacturer): in 2019, MCU and analog accounted for 49% and 30% respectively, of which MCU accounted for 31% in the automotive market. Renesas has a total of 14 factories worldwide, of which 9 are located in Japan. Affected by the earthquake, the factories in Naka and takazaki were shut down, and the production of mize factory was partially resumed.
2) Kaixia (NAND factory): Kaixia accounts for about 20% of NAND flash city. Some production lines of its Beishang factory in Iwate prefecture were stopped.
3) Murata (MLCC): Murata is a global manufacturer of passive components. Affected by the earthquake, the company’s four factories in Northeast Japan, which produce chip inductors for smartphones and cars, are shutting down. In addition, three factories in Sendai City, Junshan City, Fukushima Prefecture and Bengong City, Fukushima Prefecture are also stopping operation for equipment confirmation due to earthquake shaking.
4) Mitsubishi / Fuji: its factories near the earthquake area are shut down.
5) sumco / shinyue chemical: the earthquake mainly affected sumco Yamagata mizawa plant and shinyue Fukushima Baihe plant in Japan. It is expected that the earthquake may cause shutdown inspection and even damage to the wafer of the machine production line. Sumco and Xinyue rank the top two in the global silicon wafer supply respectively, with a market share of more than 50%. If they stop production, it is bound to have a great impact on the global 12 inch silicon wafer supply. At present, the company has not announced the specific impact.
6) Xinyue chemical photoresist factory: a magnitude 7.3 earthquake occurred in the east of Fukushima, Japan on February 13, 2001. Affected by the earthquake, Xinyue once suspended the production of Fukushima photoresist factory. Since then, the downstream agents considered cooperating with transportation and increasing relevant costs, and raised the quotation of the new contract. Xinyue is the global leader in photoresist. The earthquake may damage the transportation pipeline of raw materials. Plate tracking:
1) design:
Gigadevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc(603986) : memory, MCU and other products continue to be in short supply, and the company’s business maintains rapid growth Gigadevice Semiconductor (Beijing) Inc(603986) 2022: from January to February, the total operating revenue was about 1.354 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 49.22%. Memory, MCU and other products continue to be in short supply, the performance contribution of industry and other fields continues to improve, and the company alleviates the pressure of structural supply through supply chain management. Highlight the leading advantages, grasp the domestic opportunities, and continuously improve the product array. Nor business: the third in the world and the leader in the mainland. The distribution of storage capacity, application fields and processes continues to optimize the company’s product structure. MCU business: the 32-bit leader in mainland China continues to benefit from the local low self-sufficiency rate, and the upgrading of products to industry and automobile continues to bring structural optimization. DRAM business: the self-sufficiency rate in mainland China is very low, and self-research is developing rapidly. The revenue of self-research in 22 years is expected to exceed 1.6 billion yuan, an increase of 700%. The market expansion of vehicle regulations is smooth. NAND has passed the certification, adding another one. Nor is fully paved, and MCU is expected to be mass produced in the middle of the year.
2) sealing test:
Jcet Group Co.Ltd(600584) : the company issued a briefing on its operation in 2021, which is expected to achieve an operating revenue of 30.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.3%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 126.8%; The rapid growth of revenue is mainly due to the company’s focus on high value-added and fast-growing fields, and strong orders from customers outside China.
3) power:
The photovoltaic installed capacity is optimistic and continues to catalyze the IGBT sector. 3.14-3.18 in the current week, the major companies in the power sector increased in varying degrees: Yangzhou Yangjie Electronic Technology Co.Ltd(300373) increased by more than 11% in the current week, Starpower Semiconductor Ltd(603290) increased by 8% and China Resources Microelectronics Limited(688396) increased by nearly 7%. The main catalytic factor behind this is that the PV boom exceeded expectations: according to the 21st Century Business Herald, in 22m1, the new installed capacity of PV in China reached 7gw, an increase of nearly 200% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations – the market was worried about the high price of upstream silicon and affecting the PV installation. Looking forward to the whole year of 22, China’s newly added photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to reach 75-90gw, with a year-on-year increase of 39% – 67%. Photovoltaic IGBT enterprises are still expected to continue to benefit.
Investment suggestions: continuing to recommend a series of recommendations for the investment recommendations: the continued recommendation of the ‘ Will Semiconductor Co.Ltd.Shanghai(603501) 35.
Risk tips: the demand is less than expected, the constraints of capacity bottlenecks, the technological progress of mainland manufacturers is less than expected, the Sino US trade friction is intensified, and the information used in the research report is not updated in time.
