Copper aluminum, cobalt lithium and precious metal sectors are recommended. This week, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.77%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose 0.67%, the SW non-ferrous index rose 1.06%. In terms of precious metals, Comex gold fell 3.55% and silver fell 4.14%. The prices of LME aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, nickel and tin, the main industrial metals, changed by – 2.64%, 2.03%, 0.23%, – 2.2%, – 23.15% and – 4.81% respectively; LME aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, nickel and tin in the main metal inventory changed by – 5.39%, 7.14%, 1.85%, 1.05%, – 1.78% and 0.67% respectively.
Industrial metals: the Fed’s interest rate hike boots fell to the ground, the peak consumption season came, and industrial metals began to rebound. Core view: when the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, the macro negative will weaken. With the arrival of the peak consumption season in China, the inventory will decline seasonally. With the support of Macro & Fundamentals, industrial metals are expected to rebound. In copper, the Federal Reserve raises interest rates in line with expectations, and the macro negative will land. While overseas inflation is high, China’s demand begins to strengthen seasonally. Copper inflation transactions and basically face good expectations form a strong support for copper prices. In terms of aluminum, the overseas energy crisis continues, European enterprises are under great pressure to reduce production, supply is limited, the internal and external price difference is high, exports are expected to resonate with China’s demand, inventory decontamination may be better than expected, and aluminum prices are expected to rise. Focusing on the focus of the following: followingfollowing the following following: followingthe Western Mining Co.Ltd(601168) , China nonferrous mining industry.
Energy metals: car companies have announced price increases, lithium prices are transmitted smoothly, prices may fluctuate at a high level, and cobalt prices are expected to remain upward. Core view: the trend of high growth of new energy vehicles continues, and the price rise of vehicle enterprises is coming. Closely track the impact of price rise on the demand side. In terms of cobalt, the supply side continues to be tight, the overseas transportation of cobalt raw materials is blocked, and the inventory is low. Quzhou base, the largest cobalt salt enterprise, will stop production this week. We judge that the price of cobalt salt will continue to rise. In terms of nickel, the nickel position pressing event has come to an end temporarily, and the overseas nickel price has gradually returned to rationality. With the production of hydrometallurgy, ferronickel and high matte nickel in the second half of the year, it is expected that the nickel price will gradually decline; In terms of lithium, the upstream lithium plant has gradually completed maintenance this week, and the supply has increased; On the demand side, some iron lithium plants are somewhat afraid of high prices. The purchase demand of lithium hydroxide has increased, the price has risen rapidly, the price difference with lithium carbonate has narrowed, and the downstream production has been completed. Considering the spirit of the Symposium of the Ministry of industry and information technology on lithium salt enterprises, lithium salt enterprises will ensure China’s demand, and the lithium price or high level will fluctuate in the future. Focus on: Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) , Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) , China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) , etc.
Precious metals: the situation in Russia and Ukraine is changeable, the demand for hedging is still, and the gold price may fluctuate at a high level. Core view: the Sino US summit dialogue has cooled the risk aversion, but the situation in Russia and Ukraine is changeable, overseas inflation is high, and the support below gold is strong. On the evening of March 18, the video of the China US summit alleviated the market’s concerns about international relations, and the risk appetite may rise. However, the Russian Ukrainian negotiations did not go smoothly. Overseas inflation was high, the demand for gold hedging and anti inflation was still strong, and the price may fluctuate at a high level. Focus on: Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600988) , Yintai Gold Co.Ltd(000975) , gold mining industry and Shandong Gold Mining Co.Ltd(600547) .
Less than expected geopolitical risk and less than expected geopolitical risk release.
