Key investment points
Event: A-share express company disclosed its operating data from January to February 2022.
From January to February, the growth rate of express delivery volume was + 19.6%, recovering medium and high-speed growth. From January to February 2022, the express industry completed 15.69 billion pieces of express business (+ 19.6%), excluding the impact of the Spring Festival, the overall growth rate of the number of pieces in the industry recovered slightly higher than expected. From January to February 2022, the total amount of social zero was 7.4 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.7%, and the growth rate increased (+ 5.0pp) month on month compared with December 2021. The online retail volume of physical goods was 1.6 trillion yuan, an increase of 13.6% over the same period in 2021. The online shopping penetration rate of physical goods in the current month was 22.0%, which increased by 1.3pp compared with January February 2021. Unlike the off-season of online shopping in the Spring Festival in previous years, the effect of not closing in 2022 is obvious.
Volume: from January to February, the industry resumed medium and high-speed growth, and the volume of express delivery companies listed in A-Shares achieved positive growth. From January to February, the express industry completed 15.69 billion pieces of express business, a year-on-year increase of 19.6%, an increase of 8.9pp compared with the year-on-year growth rate in December 2021. In terms of listed companies, from January to February, SF, Yunda, Shentong and Yuantong completed 1.63 billion, 2.73 billion, 1.71 billion and 2.3 billion pieces respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.0%, 30.7%, 39.0% and 27.8% respectively; The four listed companies have achieved positive growth in the number of parts, and the growth rate of Yunda, Yuantong and Shentong exceeds the growth rate of the industry.
The share of Shunfeng city was 10.4%, up 1.2pp from December 2021; The market share of Yunda, Yuantong and Shentong were 17.4%, 14.6% and 10.9% respectively, slightly lower than that in December 2021.
Price: the price rise in the main grain producing areas continued, and the single ticket income of A-share express companies increased year-on-year. From January to February, the average unit price of national express delivery was 10.04 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.51 yuan (- 4.9%). From January to February, the average unit price of express delivery in the eastern, central and western regions was 9.97 yuan, 8.98 yuan and 13.00 yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of – 5.6%, – 4.4% and 3.4% respectively. Compared with December 2021, the decline in the eastern and central regions continued to narrow, and the western region achieved growth. The average unit prices of intra city, non local and international express delivery were 5.52 yuan, 5.75 yuan and 54.29 yuan respectively, with year-on-year changes of – 18.1%, – 9.3% and 1.0% respectively. From the perspective of major grain producing areas, the unit price in Yiwu increased year-on-year, and the unit price of express delivery was 3.24 yuan, up + 9.0% year-on-year and + 4.7% month on month.
From January to February, Yunda’s single ticket income was 2.50 yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 13.1% and a month on month increase of + 6.2%; The single ticket income of Shentong was 2.59 yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 0.5% and a month on month increase of + 6.1%; Yuantong’s single ticket income was 2.70 yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 10.5% and a month on month increase of + 7.9%; SF’s single ticket revenue was 16.67 yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 5.0% and a month on month increase of + 1.5%. The revenue of single ticket express delivery increased positively month on month.
Concentration: in February 2022, CR8 of express industry was 85.3%, with a year-on-year increase of 5.4pp and a month on month increase of 3.4pp.
Investment suggestion: since the peak season, the grassroots research data of express continued to verify the price increase of the industry, and the latest enterprise performance of head express continued to verify the profit recovery. In terms of Yuantong’s performance and Zhongtong’s Q4 performance, the profit of listed companies of franchise express hit the bottom, and the deduction of non net profit of some companies increased month on month, confirming the bottom of the profit of listed companies. The performance of Yuantong 22m1-m2 showed that the net profit attributable to the parent company was 550 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 186.4%; The net profit of 21q4 Zhongtong single ticket was 0.27 yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3 cents (+ 14.3%) and a month on month increase of 7 cents, which verified the profit inflection point. We reiterate our investment view: under the catalysis of supervision, the valuation of e-commerce express industry is reconstructed: the industry starts from the valuation system under muscle (capital) competition → the valuation system under business competition. The easing of price war at the supply side is gradually realized, and the superposition industry integration is accelerated. The industry development chain is: bottom of policy → bottom of unit price → bottom of profit. Since the peak season, the grass-roots research data of express continues to verify the price increase of the industry, the performance forecast of head express enterprises continues to verify the profit repair, the cost caused by the superposition of the scale benefits of the industry itself continues to decrease, and the repair of leading profits will be more obvious in the future.
Recommended target: continue to focus on the profit / valuation repair resonance of franchised express, Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) : the management team is stable, the share priority strategy is strong, the level of fine management is outstanding, the profit elasticity in the industry repair stage is the largest, and the non net profit deducted by Q3 is 320 million yuan, up 6.7% year-on-year, realizing positive growth. From January to February, ASP increased both month on month, with a year-on-year increase of + 13.1% and a month on month increase of + 6.2% Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) : the performance express 22m1-m2 realized a net profit attributable to the parent company of 550 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 186.4%. From January to February, ASP increased both month on month, with a year-on-year increase of + 10.5 and a month on month increase of + 7.9%. Zhongtong express: absolute dragon one, with the strongest scale effect, has a strong and balanced franchise network, abundant production capacity and cash reserves. The net profit of 21q4 single ticket is 0.27 yuan, an increase of 3 cents (+ 14.3%) year-on-year, an increase of 7 cents month on month, and the market share has increased to 20.1% month on month. The cost control is significant, and it is still flat year-on-year under the influence of high oil prices, showing the leading business dominance.
Risk tip: the growth rate of online shopping is declining, franchisees control risks, and labor costs are rising sharply.
