This paper mainly analyzes the market performance differentiation of various sub sectors and individual stocks of the agricultural industry since the closing price of the Shanghai stock index reached the year’s high of 3715 on September 13, 2021 and the continuous decline of the market on December 13. We believe that in the stage of poor overall performance of the market, some sectors or individual stocks have strong “anti falling” ability, so the probability of “the strong is always strong” in the later stage of market recovery is greater.
Industry level: the breeding sub industry leads the overall sector trend. Since September 13 last year, the overall performance of the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sector has been better than the market, with a relative range of 20.23%. In addition, the performance of all sub industries is also better than the market, among which the aquaculture sector has the best performance, ranking first among all sub industries. On the one hand, the agricultural sector has entered the bottom of historical valuation. On the other hand, with the further downward bottoming of pig prices in October 2021, the pig production capacity continues to be reduced, and the market is looking forward to the approaching pig cycle. In addition, since the Shanghai stock index reached a phased high of 3681 on December 13 last year, the overall market has been cold. The relative rise and fall of the agricultural sector has narrowed by 50% to 9.2% compared with the relative rise and fall since September 13. Fishery and aquaculture are still the sub sectors with the strongest performance among all secondary industries, with relative gains and losses of 23.3% and 17.3% respectively. The overall performance of animal protection, feed, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) processing and planting industries in other sub sectors is ordinary.
Stock level: breeding star, emerging. Up to now, among the 104 agricultural stocks recorded by Shenwan industry index, in addition to Yuehai feed (code 001313. SZ) just listed on February 16, Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) and Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) are far ahead in terms of relative growth. Since December 13, 2021, the range of relative growth and decline has been 102% and 90% respectively, and the third place Pulike Biological Engineering Inc(603566) is 61.5%.
Since December 13 last year:
(1) the top five stocks in the aquaculture sector are Leshan Giantstar Farming&Husbandry Corporation Limited(603477) (90.1%), Hunan New Wellful Co.Ltd(600975) (49.4%), Shandong Xiantan Co.Ltd(002746) (46.7%), Wens Foodstuff Group Co.Ltd(300498) (32%) and Muyuan Foods Co.Ltd(002714) (18.7%);
(2) the top five stocks with relative gains in the feed sector are Yuehai feed (105.8%), Fujian Aonong Biological Technology Group Incorporation Limited(603363) (101.9%), Tangrenshen Group Co.Ltd(002567) (59.1%), Shenzhen Kingsino Technology Co.Ltd(002548) (45.3%) and Tecon Biology Co.Ltd(002100) (39.6%);
(3) the top five stocks in the dynamic insurance sector are Pulike Biological Engineering Inc(603566) (61.5%) and China Animal Husbandry Industry Co.Ltd(600195) ; (17.9%), Lifecome Biochemistry Co.Ltd(002868) (16.5%), Qingdao Vland Biotech Inc(603739) (13.4%) and Wuhan Keqian Biology Co.Ltd(688526) (9.2%);
(4) the top five stocks in the planting industry were Fujian Wanchen Biotechnology Co.Ltd(300972) (21.7%), Zhongnongfa Seed Industry Group Co.Ltd(600313) (18.7%), Gansu Yasheng Industrial (Group) Co.Ltd(600108) (17.5%), St fragrant pear (17.4%) and Jiangsu Provincial Agricultural Reclamation And Development Co.Ltd(601952) (15.3%).
In particular, in the feed sector, the stocks that significantly outperform the market are actively laying out the pig breeding business, while the stocks that are really only engaged in the traditional feed business are generally performing in the market.
Risk tips: the price of raw materials fluctuates sharply, the implementation of agricultural policies does not meet expectations, and the data is not updated in time.
