Energy storage:
1. In the context of the overall shortage of IGBT this year, our thoughts on the PCs sector of energy storage are as follows:
(1) it has little impact on the installed capacity of energy storage this year: the profit margin of energy storage converter products is higher. On the one hand, it has stronger tolerance for IGBT price rise, on the other hand, inverter manufacturers will be inclined in internal resource allocation. Therefore, on the whole, this factor will not affect the overall installed capacity of energy storage. Therefore, maintain the prediction that the global energy storage industry will still maintain a growth rate of more than 100% in 2022.
(2) the domestic substitution process of IGBT industry is accelerated, and the user scenarios basically meet the demand: at present, the scene performance indicators of domestic IGBT manufacturers’ products within 35kw have basically met the demand. Therefore, in the global household optical storage, the proportion of inverter manufacturers using domestic IGBT will increase.
(3) it is still necessary to continue to pay attention to the price increase and supply and demand of IGBT industry: Taking the data disclosed in Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) 2019 as an example, 93% of the inverter cost is the material cost, and the value of IGBT in the material accounts for about 11%. If the price increases by 10%, it will reduce the gross profit margin of about 1%, which will erode the overall profitability of the inverter company.
2. Valuation: under the high growth rate of the industry, the valuation of the sector has returned to a reasonable range. With the high cost of raw materials, we expect the global energy storage industry to maintain a growth rate of more than 100% in 2022. Starting from the phased high point at the end of November 2021, as of March 18, the whole energy storage sector has retreated by about 30%. After the correction at this stage, the valuation of the whole sector has returned to a reasonable range. The anchor of future energy storage valuation is mainly based on three points: (1) valuation of Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) lithium battery faucet; (2) Valuation of inverter faucet; (3) The actual growth rate of the energy storage industry needs to be continuously tracked. According to our prediction, corresponding to the closing price on March 18, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) 2022 / 2023 PE is 41 / 29 times 3 Chongqing Sansheng Industrial Co.Ltd(002742) 022 / 2023 PE is 45 / 34 times.
3. Investment suggestion: Battery link: recommend Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , pay attention to Guangzhou Great Power Energy&Technology Co.Ltd(300438) ; PCs field: recommend Sungrow Power Supply Co.Ltd(300274) , Fujian Nebula Electronics.Ltd(300648) , Shenzhen Sinexcel Electric Co.Ltd(300693) , focus on Ningbo Deye Technology Co.Ltd(605117) , Shenzhen Hopewind Electric Co.Ltd(603063) , Ginlong Technologies Co.Ltd(300763) , Jiangsu Goodwe Power Supply Technology Co.Ltd(688390) ; System integration field: focus on Pylon Technologies Co.Ltd(688063) , Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd(002028) , Shenzhen Kstar Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002518) ; Fire and heat management: focus on Shenzhen Envicool Technology Co.Ltd(002837) , Jade Bird Fire Co.Ltd(002960) , Guoanda Co.Ltd(300902) , Guangzhou Goaland Energy Conservation Tech Co.Ltd(300499) , Sanhe Tongfei Refrigeration Co.Ltd(300990) .
Grid:
1. Valuation: the valuation center has gradually callback, and has gradually approached the relatively reasonable allocation space. From November to December 2021, the market’s expectations for power grid investment rose, giving the new infrastructure sector of power grid more growth attributes, raising the PE level of the sector. After that, due to the choice under the background of overseas interest rate hike and China’s steady growth, the valuation center of the new infrastructure sector of the power grid gradually corrected. According to the unanimous expectation of wind, corresponding to the closing price on March 18, Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) 2022 PE is 25 times.
2. Investment: in the context of accelerating the construction of a new power system, the power grid investment increased during the 14th Five Year Plan period, and there were great opportunities for structural investment in some fields. Suggestions: 1) UHV and Gil: Nari Technology Co.Ltd(600406) , Xj Electric Co.Ltd(000400) , Beijing Sifang Automation Co.Ltd(601126) , Tbea Co.Ltd(600089) , Jiangsu Ankura Smart Transmission Engineering Technology Co.Ltd(300617) ; 2) Grid side energy storage: Yunnan Wenshan Electric Power Co.Ltd(600995) , China Southern Power Grid technology, Shaanxi Baoguang Vacuum Electronic Apparatus Co.Ltd(600379) , Guangzhou Zhiguang Electric Co.Ltd(002169) , Sieyuan Electric Co.Ltd(002028) , Beijing Sifang Automation Co.Ltd(601126) ; 3) Smart meter: Hangzhou Sunrise Technology Co.Ltd(300360) , Acrel Co.Ltd(300286) , Jiangsu Linyang Energy Co.Ltd(601222) , Hexing Electrical Co.Ltd(603556) , Beijing Yupont Electric Power Technology Co.Ltd(688597) ; 4) Energy saving transformer: Yunlu shares, Advanced Technology & Materials Co.Ltd(000969) , Jiangsu Yangdian Science & Technology Co.Ltd(301012) , State Grid Yingda Co.Ltd(600517) ; 5) Intelligent monitoring and maintenance of power grid: Hangzhou Kelin Electric Co.Ltd(688611) , Zhiyang Innovation Technology Co.Ltd(688191) , Hangzhou Shenhao Technology Co.Ltd(300853) , Yijiahe Technology Co.Ltd(603666) , China Southern Power Grid technology.
Risk tips:
The cost reduction of energy storage is less than the expected risk; The support of energy storage policy is less than the expected risk; The progress of market-oriented reform of power trading is less than the expected risk; The investment of State Grid is lower than the expected risk.
