Investment summary:
Talk every Monday: focus on the electric intelligent industry chain under the background of rebound
Since the beginning of the year, the automobile sector has shown relatively large fluctuations with the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market, showing the characteristics of "falling more and rebounding faster". In particular, electric passenger vehicles, automotive electronic and electrical systems and other sectors have shown a rapid rebound trend.
The concerns about the relatively high level of market liquidity of the automobile industry at the beginning of last year and the relatively unstable rise of the automobile industry since the beginning of last year are mainly due to the concerns about the market liquidity. For the industrial chain itself, the concern lies in:
The impact of the continuous rise of raw materials on the industrial chain;
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has affected the stability of the global supply chain;
Repeated outbreaks may lead to weak supply and demand;
The prices of new energy vehicle enterprises have increased one after another, which suppresses the purchase sentiment of new energy, crude oil continues to rise, and suppresses the purchase sentiment of fuel vehicles with a higher share. For the recent rebound, we believe that it is mainly due to the stable and positive trend of China's demand from the apparent data; The rising raw material prices in the early stage have also gradually stabilized with the efforts of many parties.
The demand data is relatively stable, and the production and marketing data of new energy continues to increase;
All parties work together to stabilize the price of raw materials.
First of all, we suggest that we first propose to focus on the growing and long-term electric smart industrial chain that has a growing and long-term value. We first propose to focus on the first of our first suggestions to focus on the related targets of the electric smart industrial chain chain that has stronger growth and long-term value, such as Zhejiang Vie Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002590) 02594 yes. Secondly, enterprises that are not afraid of fluctuations in the industrial chain, such as China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) , which are not sensitive to market supply and demand, production and marketing and have good defensive attributes and growth certainty.
Market review:
As of the closing on March 18, the auto sector was - 0.6%, the CSI 300 index was - 0.9%, and the auto sector was 0.3 percentage points ahead of the CSI 300 index. The auto industry rose or fell last week, ranking ninth among the 31 sectors of Shenwan, with a fair performance. Since the beginning of the year, the automobile sector has been - 19.5%, ranking 27th among the 31 sectors of Shenwan.
Performance of weekly rise and fall of sub sectors: electric passenger vehicles took the lead in rebounding, with an increase of 2% in the week, tire hubs and automotive electronic and electrical systems rose by 0.7% and 0.5% respectively, and commercial trucks (- 3.3%) performed poorly, leading the decline.
Up and down performance of sub sectors since the beginning of the year: all sectors have fallen sharply, with commercial trucks (- 25.6%), integrated passenger vehicles (- 25.3%), automotive electronic and electrical systems (- 23.8%) and tire hubs (- 23.5%) leading the decline.
Top five gainers and Losers: Hyunion Holding Co.Ltd(002537) , Sinomach Automobile Co.Ltd(600335) , Anhui Ankai Automobile Co.Ltd(000868) , Kunshan Huguang Auto Harness Co.Ltd(605333) , Sichuan Chuanhuan Technology Co.Ltd(300547) .
The top five in terms of rise and fall: Ningbo Fangzheng Automobile Mould Co.Ltd(300998) , Zhejiang Xiantong Rubber & Plastic Co.Ltd(603239) , Huaiji Dengyun Auto-Parts (Holding) Co.Ltd(002715) , Actblue Co.Ltd(300816) , Chongqing Qin'An M&E Plc(603758) .
Investment strategy and key recommendations this week:
In the context of rebound, it is suggested to pay attention to the electric intelligent sector and focus on companies with long-term value. Therefore, we suggest paying attention to: competitive Vehicle Enterprises: Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , Geely Automobile, Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , etc. High quality enterprises in the parts sector with reasonable valuation at present: Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co.Ltd(002472) , Mingxin Automotive Leather Co.Ltd(605068) , Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) , Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) , Anhui Zhongding Sealing Parts Co.Ltd(000887) , Hunan Oil Pump Co.Ltd(603319) , Wuhan Lincontrol Automotive Electronics Co.Ltd(688667) , etc; Technical service enterprises that are not significantly affected by production and sales fluctuations and have strong growth certainty: China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) etc.
Recommended combination this week: Byd Company Limited(002594) 20%, Wuhan Lincontrol Automotive Electronics Co.Ltd(688667) 20%, Zhejiang Shuanghuan Driveline Co.Ltd(002472) 20%, China Automotive Engineering Research Institute Co.Ltd(601965) 20% and Mingxin Automotive Leather Co.Ltd(605068) 20%.
Risk tip: the car sales volume is lower than expected; The implementation of stimulus policies for the automobile industry was less than expected; The risk of intensified market competition; Risk of shortage of key raw materials such as chips and rising cost of raw materials; The epidemic control was less than expected.
