Key investment points
Price: excluding the influence of high prices before the festival, the price in February was basically the same as that in December, and the price was still strong. The regulations on the promotion of express industry in Zhejiang Province was implemented from March, and remained optimistic about the price policy in the subsequent off-season:
In terms of industry, the unit price of the ticket in February 2022 was 9.70 yuan, a month on month increase of -0.75 yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 0.75 yuan. Among them, for the price wind vane in key grain producing areas, the unit price of Yiwu February ticket was 3.07 yuan, with a month on month comparison of -0.31 yuan, compared with -0.02 yuan in December of last year; The unit price of February ticket in Guangzhou was 7.49 yuan, a month on month increase of + 0.0 yuan, up from + 0.81 yuan in December last year.
In terms of the company, in February 2022, after excluding the impact of settlement caliber, the unit price of Yunda ticket was 2.34 yuan, a month on month increase of -0.19 yuan, compared with -0.01 yuan in December of the previous year; The unit price of round pass ticket is 2.60 yuan, with a month on month comparison of -0.02 yuan, up from + 0.10 yuan in December of last year; The unit price of Shentong ticket was 2.44 yuan, a month on month increase of -0.01 yuan, the same as that in December last year.
Core analysis: we analyze that January is the high price of the Spring Festival, and February is the normal return after the Spring Festival. The price comparison of the industry and company in February is basically the same as that in December, and it is verified that the price is still strong. In addition, the difference of price month on month changes among companies is mainly due to the impact of caliber. Regulation promotes the price to return to a benign trend. We judge that the price is expected to continue to be strong in the off-season from March to April.
Industry: from January to February, the single volume maintained a relatively high growth, and is still optimistic about the growth of the whole year
Single volume: from January to February, the total single volume increased by 19.6% year-on-year. From January to February 2022, the number of express orders in the industry was 15.69 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 19.6%. Excluding the factors affecting the wrong date of the Spring Festival, the growth is still considerable. China’s e-commerce online shopping is still driven, with the superposition of express sinking (regional sinking and unit value sinking) and steady progress of express going to sea. Based on the above factors, we believe that the number of express orders in the industry is expected to continue to maintain a relatively high growth in the next two years. Revenue: the express delivery revenue in February was 65.710 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.42%. In February 2022, the monthly express delivery revenue of the industry was 65.710 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 27.42% and a month on month decrease of – 28.37%.
A-share target: the volume and price of the leading stock are still good, entering the essential period of profit restoration
Single volume: from the market share in February, Yunda Yuantong Shentong Shunfeng. In February 2022, SF’s single quantity was 638 million, with a year-on-year market share of -5.90 PTs to 9.23%; Yunda has a single volume of 1.216 billion pieces, with an average daily single volume of 43.43 million tickets, with a year-on-year market share of + 2.42 PTs to 17.60%; The number of Yuantong orders was 968 million, with a year-on-year market share of + 2.55 PTs to 14.01%; The number of Shentong orders was 723 million, with a year-on-year market share of + 2.04pts to 10.46%. Yunda, Yuantong
The year-on-year growth rate of total single volume of Shentong from January to February was + 30.71%, + 27.82% and + 38.96% respectively.
Pattern: the share is still concentrated to the leader. According to the express service brand concentration index CR8 released by the State Post Office, the cumulative CR8 in February 2022 was 85.3%, with a month on month increase of 3.4pts and a year-on-year increase of 5.4pts; In terms of the cumulative market share of SF, Yunda, Yuantong and Shentong, the cumulative Cr4 of A-share express in February 2022 was 53.3%, an increase of 2.1pts over the same period last year, and the single volume still showed a trend of concentration to the leader. Revenue: SF continues to lead A-share express companies. In February 2022, the revenue of SF express was – 6.72% year-on-year to RMB 9.849 billion; Yunda Express’s revenue increased from 88.12% to 2.85 billion yuan year-on-year; Yuantong Express revenue increased by 87.15% year-on-year to 2.577 billion yuan Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) revenue increased by 57.45% year-on-year to RMB 1.669 billion.
Investment: the track pattern is gradually clear and optimistic about the leading development
Policy supervision is the source driving force for the recovery of the express boom, and the trend is gradually increasing. Following the legislation of the regulations of Zhejiang Province on the promotion of express industry in September 2021, the state post office began to solicit public opinions on the measures for the administration of express market (Revised Draft) on January 7, 2022. From the revised content of the measures, we interpret the key increment as one core, two dimensions and three key points: “one core” is to promote the national high-quality development of the express industry; “Two dimensions” lie in competition order and service quality; The “three key points” are to prohibit price competition below the cost line, rectify the phenomenon of collusive price manipulation and fictitious express information, and protect the legitimate rights and interests of express employees. The regulatory legislation will be upgraded to the national level, the multi-directional guarantee of profits will return to benign, and the repair of industry value is expected to exceed expectations. In March 2022, the regulation of Zhejiang Province on the promotion of express industry was officially implemented, which will further implement the requirement of providing express services at no less than the cost.
Express value repair is divided into three levels and two stages, which is about to enter the essential level of profit repair. For the value restoration after the vicious price war, we believe that we should distinguish three levels: 1) policy control, 2) price return, and 3) profit restoration. In the second and third quarters of last year, with the introduction of the policy, the industry price gradually returned to a benign trend. After the policy and price repair, it is about to enter the most essential level of value repair, that is, the level of profit repair, and the corresponding stock price performance may usher in the second wave of “main rising wave”. In fact, the leading performance has begun to verify the profit recovery of the sector. The net profit attributable to the parent company of Zhongtong express 21q4 single ticket hit the bottom of + 0.08 yuan month on month. It is Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) preliminarily estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from January to February of 22 was 545 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 186.4%.
Invest in different tracks and be optimistic about the leading development. In terms of franchise system, we are optimistic about Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , the improvement of value certainty, Zhongtong express, the leader of single volume profit, and Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) ; In terms of direct marketing, it is suggested to pay attention to the problem of network extension and barrier upgrading under the broad layout of traditional + emerging business forms S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) .
Risk warning: loose policy control; Deterioration of express price war; The growth of physical online shopping fell.
