Key investment points:
Last week’s market
In the last five trading days, CSI 300 fell 0.94% and SW auto sector fell 0.64%, outperforming the market by 0.30 percentage points, mainly due to the oversold rebound of the market and sector after the stability maintenance meeting of the financial committee. Among them, the passenger car sector rose slightly by 0.17%; The commercial bus sector fell 1.45%; The commercial truck sector fell 3.34%; The auto parts sector fell 0.77%; The auto service sector fell 1.31%.
Price trend of upstream raw materials
Last week, the steel composite price index fell slightly by 0.20%, aluminum and copper prices rose by 2.88% / 1.49% respectively, Tianjiao futures prices fell by 1.63%, Brent crude oil futures prices fell by 4.21%, and float glass prices fell by 3.74%. On the whole, the prices of main raw materials in the automobile manufacturing industry rose and fell last week, the price of aluminum and copper was relatively strong, and the cost pressure of the industry remained.
Industry news
1) Shenzhen Bureau of Commerce carried out the reward work of “trade in” automobile purchase in 2022; 2) The three departments jointly issued the management measures for urban green freight distribution demonstration project; 3) The 14th five year plan of Hunan intelligent networked automobile industry: the penetration rate of intelligent networked automobile will exceed 70% in 2025; 4) Volkswagen Group will accelerate the new auto strategy and deepen the transformation of electrification; 5) Ford’s European strategic goal: 7 new pure electric vehicles will be launched by 2024.
Company news
1) Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co.Ltd(600660) annual report: the net profit attributable to the parent company was 3.146 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 20.97%;
2) Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) annual report: the net profit attributable to the parent company was 310 million yuan in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 27.24%; 3) Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) : in the first two months of this year, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 250 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of about 64%; 4) Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) performance express: in 2021, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.045 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 66.39%; 5) Iat Automobile Technology Co.Ltd(300825) signed a technology license contract with Honda.
Industry strategy and individual stock recommendation this week
According to the data of the Federation of passenger cars, the retail end of narrow passenger cars increased by 3% in the second week of March, and the retail end performed strongly; The wholesale end decreased by 3% year-on-year, showing a general performance. Recently, China’s epidemic has been widely distributed, and the shutdown of some factories is expected to have a certain impact on short-term production and marketing. However, we believe that when the central government again emphasized the dynamic clearing of epidemic prevention and control last week, it is expected that the follow-up epidemic in China is expected to be quickly and effectively controlled, and social production and life are expected to return to normal as soon as possible. Therefore, the logic of replenishment and delayed order delivery in the automotive industry this year is expected to continue, and the trend of industry recovery is expected to continue after being affected by the epidemic for a short time. In terms of new energy vehicles, the original intention of the state to continue the development of new energy vehicles remains unchanged. Although the prices of vehicle models have been raised successively due to the decline of subsidies and the price adjustment of power batteries since the beginning of the year, and the expectation of rapid growth of the industry is facing certain pressure, we believe that the logic of supply stimulating demand this year will continue to be deduced, and the undelivered orders accumulated for the best-selling models last year will be delivered in the first half of the year. Therefore, we are not pessimistic about the sales forecast of this year, Among them, this year’s class a vehicles and hybrid vehicles will effectively supplement the model product line, which is expected to contribute to the main increment. The global new energy vehicle market will continue to grow rapidly under the leadership of China, Europe and the United States. To sum up, we’re looking at: 1) 1) China enters and binds international car companies like Tesla and Volkswagen, and international car companies like Tesla and Volkswagen, and international car companies like Tesla, Volkswagen and Volkswagen, as well as companies with new forces for car making, and companies with strong self brand supply chains, such as Tianjin You Fa Steel Pipe Group Stock Co.Ltd(601686) 89 ( Zhejiang Yinlun Machinery Co.Ltd(002126) ), Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) ( Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) ); 2) Enterprises that enter the supply chain of leading battery manufacturers at home and abroad, such as Panasonic, LG energy solution, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) and Freddie battery, such as Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) ( Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) ), Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) ( Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) ), Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) ( Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) ). In addition, we are optimistic about independent automobile enterprises that continuously improve their technology and stand out in the fierce competition, such as Byd Company Limited(002594) ( Byd Company Limited(002594) ) and Yutong Bus Co.Ltd(600066) ( Yutong Bus Co.Ltd(600066) ).
In terms of smart cars, the current cooperation between technology giants and car enterprises continues to advance, and China’s smart electric vehicle market will present a diversified competition pattern in the future. With the subsequent significant increase in the supply of smart cars in China (a number of smart new models are expected to appear at this year’s Beijing auto show), the industrial development shows an accelerated trend. It is suggested to pay attention to two main lines: 1) thematic opportunities in Huawei’s auto industry chain, such as Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) ( Chongqing Changan Automobile Company Limited(000625) ) Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) ( Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) ) and Baic Bluepark New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(600733) ( Baic Bluepark New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(600733) ); 2) The demand for cameras, millimeter wave radar, lidar and other sensors will continue to increase, and the penetration rate of smart lights / smart cockpit / air suspension will continue to increase. It is recommended to pay attention to Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) ( Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) ), Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) ( Changzhou Xingyu Automotive Lighting Systems Co.Ltd(601799) ), Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) ( Keboda Technology Co.Ltd(603786) ), Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation(603197) ( Shanghai Baolong Automotive Corporation(603197) ), Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) ( Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) ).
Risk warning: policy fluctuation risk; Risk of chip shortage; The global covid-19 pneumonia epidemic control was less than expected; The electric transformation of Chinese and international car enterprises is less than expected; The promotion of new energy and intelligent networked vehicles was lower than expected.
