Core view
Shipping: this week, the CCFI composite index reported 3301.1 points, down 1.9% month on month, of which the US West Route reported 2470.8 points, down 3.8% month on month, and the European line reported 5372.2 points, down 1.9% month on month. The decline in cargo volume brought by the Chinese new year has given us ports a chance to breathe. Recently, it has entered a key window period of whether the efficiency of the supply chain can be improved. However, we believe that the decline in freight rates in recent one month does not mean that the prosperity of centralized transportation has decreased, but we should pay attention to the freight rate performance in late March and early April. We believe that the signing of the us long line Association in April will further strengthen the certainty of further improvement of industry profits.
Airport: the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee clearly adhered to the principle of “external defense input and internal defense rebound”. While strengthening epidemic prevention, we should strive to achieve the maximum prevention and control results at the least cost and minimize the impact of the epidemic on social economy. The epidemic will eventually pass. If we choose to open up one day, civil aviation will have great upward flexibility under the triple stimulus of reversal of supply and demand, ticket price reform and historical high seating rate. Recommend three major airlines, spring and autumn, auspicious. The traffic monopoly position and high-quality consumption scene of the hub airport gathering high net worth passengers have not fundamentally changed due to the epidemic. At present, due to the pressure on the performance of international passenger reduction, once the door is opened, the performance of the airport will be greatly improved. Recommend Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) , Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Company Limited(600004) .
Express delivery: this week, A-share express listed companies released their operating data in February. SF took the initiative to shrink its business to control costs, resulting in a decline in the growth rate of overall business volume from 1-2 to 1.6%; Benefiting from the business volume spillover caused by the recovery of industry growth and the integration of Jitu Baishi, the business volume growth of Yunda, Yuantong and Shentong from January to February were significantly higher than the industry growth, 31%, 28% and 39% respectively. From the performance of industry unit price and Shentong unit price from January to February, the price competition of leading companies is still in a relaxed situation. The profit recovery logic of leading express companies continues to be fulfilled, and continue to recommend S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) , Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) and Zhongtong express.
Logistics & small and medium-sized stocks: select high-quality stocks in the logistics industry and recommend Milkyway Chemical Supply Chain Service Co.Ltd(603713) , Cts International Logistics Corporation Limited(603128) Jiangsu Shuangxing Color Plastic New Materials Co.Ltd(002585) performance increased continuously and continued to be recommended; Add new coverage Anhui Anli Material Technology Co.Ltd(300218) , recommend Zhejiang Natural Outdoor Goods Inc(605080) , Joy Kie Corporation Limited(300994) , Anhui Anli Material Technology Co.Ltd(300218) , recommend digital printing revolutionaries Hangzhou Honghua Digital Technology Stock Company Ltd(688789) , pay attention to Kaili Catalyst & New Materials Co.Ltd(688269) , Comefly Outdoor Co.Ltd(603908) .
Investment suggestion: in the transportation sector, we tend to believe that the dispersion of the epidemic and the free flow of people, goods and goods are a gradual process. The high-level operation of centralized transportation (especially in the first half of the year), the easing of express competition and integration will be high probability events. The Airport is relatively disturbed and suitable for long-term layout; Chemical and hazardous chemicals logistics has benefited from the increasing proportion of production and consumption in China and Asia year by year. Under the background of strong government supervision, the qualification approval of leading enterprises is gradually liberalized, and the improvement of concentration is expected to accelerate; Recommendations: Milkyway Chemical Supply Chain Service Co.Ltd(603713) , S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) , Yto Express Group Co.Ltd(600233) , Yunda Holding Co.Ltd(002120) , Air China Limited(601111) , Spring Airlines Co.Ltd(601021) , Shanghai International Airport Co.Ltd(600009) , pay attention to Guangzhou Jiacheng International Logistics Co.Ltd(603535) . Small and medium cap stocks still follow the main line of reasonable valuation + marginal change + sustainable growth, trying to find stocks with sustained growth and compound interest effect. Comprehensively considering the growth and valuation level of individual stocks, taking stock’s growth and valuation levels into account, the growth and valuation level of a stock, continuing to recommend the growth and valuation level of a stock, continuing to recommend the Hongda Xingye Co.Ltd(002002) Jiangsu Shuangxing Color Plastic New Materials Co.Ltd(002585) .
Risk tip: the macroeconomic recovery is less than expected, the epidemic situation is repeated, and the oil price and exchange rate fluctuate violently
